Cocoa Futures at Near 2-Week Low

Cocoa futures dropped over 6% toward $5,500 per tonne, hovering near two-week lows, after weak grinding data from Europe raised demand concerns. Cocoa grindings in Europe, the world's largest cocoa grinding region, extended their decline in the second quarter, falling 4.6% year over year to 316,366 tonnes, the lowest quarterly total since 2020. By contrast, Asia posted a 25.1% increase, while North America recorded modest growth. The figures reinforced the view that the recent rally was largely driven by supply risks in West Africa and speculative activity rather than improving demand fundamentals. On the supply side, despite growing concerns about the upcoming Ivory Coast harvest and climate risks for 2026/27, the market still has more comfortable global stocks than those seen during the 2024 supply crisis. Latest data showed ICE-monitored cocoa inventories rose further to a nearly two-year high of 3,204,512 bags, reinforcing the scenario of greater availability.

Cocoa decreased 5.08% to 5545.36 USD/T

Cocoa futures eased to around $5,600 per tonne, down from an eight-month high of $6,455 hit on July 9, as profit-taking and long liquidation followed signs of ample cocoa supplies from the top grower Ivory Coast. Data released on July 10 showed farmers shipped 2.07 MMT of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025, and July 5, 2026, up 21% from a year earlier. Moreover, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories rose further to a nearly two-year high of 3,151,790 bags. However, concerns over the 2026/27 crop persisted, with Ivory Coast's main harvest expected to decline by more than 10% due to excessive El Niño-linked rainfall and poor crop management. Local farmers said soil moisture remained too high and more sunshine was needed to limit crop disease and support the September-to-February main crop after heavy rains flooded plantations in some regions in late June. They added that flowering will continue through September, with the harvest depending on how many flowers develop into pods.