Cocoa Falls to 3-Week Low

Cocoa futures eased to around $5,640 a tonne, pulling back slightly after recent gains lifted prices to near three-week highs. The market remains range-bound, caught between ample current supplies and a deteriorating outlook for 2026/27 linked to El Niño. Ivory Coast’s main crop is expected to fall about 17% this season, while farmers recently warned that upcoming rains should ease drought concerns but may not fully support recovery in young pods. Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 18,000 tonnes in the week to October 4, taking the season total to 54,500 tonnes. Meanwhile, third-quarter grinding data from Europe and North America, due October 15, will be closely watched for further clues on demand.

Cocoa futures eased toward $5,100 per tonne, their lowest since July 27, pressured by ample supply following a large global surplus in the 2025/26 season. Rising inventories added to the downward pressure, with ICE cocoa stocks reaching a 2.25-year high of 3,481,504 bags as of September 30. At the same time, government data showed Ivory Coast's cocoa shipments totaled 2.18 MMT in the current marketing year, from October 1, 2025, to September 27, 2026, up 19.8% from the same period a year earlier. The medium-term outlook is less favourable, however, with West African crop prospects facing increased weather risks in 2026/27, including those associated with El Niño. Early estimates for the next season are far from comfortable. Forecasts for Ivory Coast point to production of around 1.8 million metric tons, well below roughly 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26.

Cocoa futures traded around $5,600 per tonne, their highest level in over a week, supported by short covering as forecasts of dry conditions in top grower Ivory Coast raised concerns over the 2026/27 crop. At the same time, early surveys pointed to below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signalling a weaker outlook for the main harvest, which began this month. Still, near-term supply remains ample, underpinned by a large global surplus in 2025/26 and inventories at a two-year high of 3.43 million bags. The medium-term outlook is less favourable, however, with estimates for 2026/27 pointing to weaker crops across West Africa due to elevated weather risks. Ivory Coast's output is expected to fall about 20% to 1.75 million tonnes, while Ghana’s production is forecast to decline 13% to 650,000 tonnes. These risks could be compounded by an unusually strong El Niño, potentially intensifying dry Harmattan winds from around November.