Brent Drops as Hormuz Flows and Iran Talks Improve

Brent crude oil fell to around $78.2 per barrel on Monday, hovering near its lowest level since early March as easing geopolitical tensions and progress in US-Iran negotiations supported expectations of a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf supply flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks in Switzerland had made “major progress” toward stabilising the wider regional situation, despite earlier volatility and threats to suspend discussions. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final agreement, alongside ongoing technical discussions and the establishment of a monitoring mechanism. Also, shipping data indicated continued movement through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Market participants also pointed to rising Iranian exports via the waterway, including discounted crude sales to China, as evidence of efforts to maintain market share despite the conflict.

Brent slipped below $80 per barrel on Monday, giving up earlier gains as investors reacted positively to signs of progress in ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran. According to a joint statement from Qatar and Pakistan, which are facilitating negotiations in Switzerland, both sides have agreed to a roadmap aimed at securing a final agreement within 60 days. Oil prices started the session sharply higher after President Donald Trump threatened fresh strikes if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel and warned Tehran against closing the Strait of Hormuz again. Iranian media later reported that Tehran had suspended talks in response to Trump's remarks, though sources familiar with the negotiations said discussions were still underway. Meanwhile, millions of barrels of crude continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, while producers across the Persian Gulf prepared to increase output.

Brent oil prices opened the week more than 1% higher, rising to almost $82 per barrel as uncertanity over the reopening of Strait of Hormuz remined. US and Iran resumed talks in Switzerland, but tensions persisted. Iranian state media said Iranian negotiators demanded an end to the war in Lebanon as a condition for further talks, while President Trump renewed threats against Iran even as Vice President JD Vance praised the talks' progress. Iran said the US had failed to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon and announced it had again halted traffic through the strait. Tehran also said Sunday's talks would exclude substantive issues such as its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, President Trump warned of renewed US strikes unless Iran curbs its proxies in Lebanon. He also threatened tolls in the absence of a deal and warned Tehran against closing the Strait of Hormuz.