Aluminum Hits 34-week Low

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,020 per tonne in October, the lowest level year-to-date, fully erasing the rally since the start of the war between Iran and the US amid a stronger dollar and ample supply outside the Middle East. Aluminum smelting infrastructure in the Middle East was restarted at a faster pace than previously signaled following damage to facilities and operational halts caused by disruptions to natural gas production chains in the region. Emirates Global Aluminium said that a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations. In addition, Rio Tinto secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operational through the end of 2031, further boosting supply prospects. Also, China's exports have increased sharply in the period despite the 30% export duty faced by primary aluminum smelters, which drives secondary producers to focus on foreign markets. Alloy export volumes doubled y-o-y to 4.46 million tons through August.

Aluminum decreased to 3022.00 USD/T, the lowest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Aluminum lost 7.06%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.05%.

Aluminum futures in the UK were at $3,030 per tonne, hovering at their lowest level since February, weighed down by a stronger US dollar, easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions, and expanding production capacity in Indonesia. Macquarie recently lowered its forecast for the global aluminum supply deficit as smelter restarts in the Middle East progressed faster than expected. In late August, Emirates Global Aluminium said that a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations as recovery efforts continued following damage from an Iranian attack in March. In addition, Rio Tinto secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operational through the end of 2031, further boosting supply prospects. Meanwhile, the US dollar hovered near an 18-month high, putting further pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Weaker demand expectations in China also weighed on the market to some extent.