AUS 10Y Yield Retreats from Multi-Week Highs

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.9%, easing from multi-week highs as softer inflation figures reduced expectations of further interest rate hikes. Headline inflation unexpectedly eased to a four-month low of 3.8% in June from both May's reading and forecasts of 4.0%, while monthly consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% for a second straight month. Meanwhile, the closely watched trimmed mean inflation rate rose 3.6% annually, below expectations of 3.7%, while quarterly core inflation increased 0.8%, also undershooting forecasts. Although inflation remains above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, markets sharply scaled back bets on another rate hike this year to around 50% from more than 90% before the release. The softer readings also reinforced the view that the central bank is unlikely to resume policy tightening at its August 11 meeting. Still, the RBA's governor recently warned that another rate hike may still be needed to bring inflation back to target.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 5%, easing from a ten-week high as oil prices retreated following a pause in the US-Iran conflict. The US suspended its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran, while Tehran said it had ended its retaliatory attacks and held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said another interest rate hike may still be needed to bring inflation back to target, but stressed that the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain. She noted that further moderation in domestic demand and labor market conditions would likely be needed to judge whether previous tightening has been sufficient. Markets trimmed the odds of an August rate hike to around 20% from about 30%, though investors continue to expect the cash rate to reach 4.60% by year-end. Focus now turns to Wednesday's second-quarter CPI report, with core inflation expected to accelerate to 3.7%, remaining above the RBA's 2%–3% target range.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5%, reaching the highest level since May 20 as robust jobs data reinforced the case of another rise in interest rates. The economy added 76,300 jobs in June, the largest increase since April last year and far above forecasts of a 15,300 gain, while the jobless rate held at 4.4% as expected, with the participation rate rising to a one-year high of 67%. The upbeat data reinforced signs of tight labor conditions and prompted markets to boost the odds of another rate hike by year-end to 90%, up from 78% previously. Combined with higher oil prices amid renewed fighting in the Middle East, the strong jobs report added to uncertainty over the inflation outlook and increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep policy restrictive. Investors now await second-quarter inflation data due next week, with core inflation expected to accelerate to 3.7% annually from 3.5%, remaining well above the central bank’s 2%-3% target band.