Australia Business Sentiment Falls to 7-Month Low

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index fell to -13 in September 2026 from a revised -9 in the prior month, its lowest since May and the seventh straight month of negative sentiment. Confidence stayed well below average amid oil price volatility and renewed Middle East tensions, heightening cost concerns. Sentiment weakened in five of eight industries, though mining, wholesale and retail improved. Meanwhile, business conditions were broadly steady, as modest gains in profitability and trading were offset by employment sliding to a five-year low. Purchase costs remained elevated, continuing to outpace final price growth, while capacity utilisation stayed above average in most sectors, underscoring persistent pressures. The survey points to slower Q3 growth and softer labour demand ahead. The mix of weak confidence, high costs, above-average utilisation and subdued profitability highlights risks of further price pass-through and a sharper slowdown in activity into late 2026.

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index fell to -8 in August 2026 from -6 in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since May. Meanwhile, business conditions slid to a six-year low, dropping below the long-run average since mid-2025, amid declines in sales, profitability, and employment. The deterioration pointed to a broad-based weakening in business activity, with firms becoming more cautious about demand and operating conditions. The survey also suggested that cost pressures remained elevated, while forward orders softened, highlighting growing headwinds to business investment and hiring. The subdued confidence and weakening conditions may reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain cautious on further policy easing, particularly as inflationary pressures remain sticky.

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index held at -6 in July 2026, unchanged from a revised reading in the previous month and remaining well below the level recorded in February before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began. Meanwhile, business conditions edged up (4 vs 3 in June), but stayed below the long-run average of 7. Employment and profitability improved, while sales were unchanged. Capacity utilisation rose sharply to 83.0%, led by the finance, business and property, and wholesale industries. NAB said that despite improved outcomes from the peak impact of the Middle East crisis, “elevated uncertainty has continued to weigh on business confidence.” It also noted that cost pressures alongside a softer outlook for forward demand were likely to keep margins under pressure. Final prices and purchase costs increased, driven largely by swings in fuel prices, with transport and utilities among the key contributors.