Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 4.1 4 5.3 6.1 5.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.6 4.3 5 4.4 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 7.80 6.5 5.7 5.5 8.7 9.3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -656.00 -824 -664 -648 -633 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 74 74 84.47 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 153.60 152 150 149 147 130 [+]
Stock Market 6483.55 6460 6400 6330 6270 5550 points [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 4.1 4 5.3 6.1 5.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 4.1 4 5.3 6.1 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 81.32 82.2 82 81.8 81.6 78.3 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2211612.00 2460384 2230189 2213347 2219039 2311840 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 11506217.00 12517590 12765882 13014173 13262464 15392655 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3263242.60 3457640 3485933 3514226 3542518 3703542 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3759.20 3867 3891 3916 3940 4128 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11417.30 11716 11779 11842 11905 12325 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 153981.00 161193 157836 154988 157364 157410 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 176468.00 183972 187563 179162 173310 172826 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 292458.00 326143 394120 296975 373329 318633 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 56120.00 58236 58349 57034 56871 55424 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 195555.00 223982 175775 194345 183837 208347 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1329429.00 1324557 1266501 1296902 1289101 1282596 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 211725.00 269064 224008 213651 249099 245175 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23271.00 22705 22853 22670 22531 21744 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.6 4.3 5 4.4 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8138728.00 8066472 8098054 8096347 8078234 8030629 [+]
Unemployed Persons 352875.00 353448 354644 356291 357934 372146 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.90 53.5 53.5 53.37 53.23 52.29 percent [+]
Population 21.20 21.34 21.37 21.4 21.43 21.62 Million [+]
Wages High Skilled 60700.00 56482 57606 58168 58729 56940 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00 23786 23114 22778 22442 22783 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.50 20.46 20.06 20.17 20.37 20.97 percent [+]
Employment Rate 95.90 95.86 95.83 95.78 95.74 95.4 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 42700.00 42700 42700 42700 42700 42700 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 25100.00 25100 25100 25100 25100 25100 LKR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.80 6.5 5.7 5.5 8.7 9.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 120.80 120 120 120 120 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.30 124 124 124 124 123 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.00 6.21 6.36 6.48 6.58 6.93 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 131.40 135 135 135 135 132 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 125.50 123 122 121 120 114 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 135.25 133 132 131 130 122 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 132.75 129 128 127 127 123 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 17.30 13.24 10.81 9.27 8.47 8 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 97.90 102 105 108 110 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 12.60 11.24 7.24 5.77 6.02 6.41 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.90 0.62 0.84 0.71 0.77 0.76 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7 7 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.04 9.96 10.14 10.4 10.63 11.64 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 562770.00 561430 561570 561477 561283 559223 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 754620.00 767072 767615 767488 767168 763772 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 5503150.00 5355611 5335044 5326263 5317582 5240267 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1175841.00 1025216 1019271 1013396 1007566 957083 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7248848.00 7705900 7901209 8074506 8227651 8937997 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 7.07 7.43 7.79 8.15 8.66 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.53 7.58 7.63 7.69 8.08 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1737376.00 1680347 1673178 1668085 1662635 1615875 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -656.00 -824 -664 -648 -633 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 1011.00 973 963 952 941 863 USD Million [+]
Imports 1666.70 1691 1689 1676 1661 1541 USD Million [+]
Current Account -795.00 -583 -443 -548 -444 -437 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 -3.5 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 49146.65 48520 49332 48730 48577 45540 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 101.88 105 106 107 107 109 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 152429.00 227000 191000 125000 154000 244000 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.30 20.88 20.21 19.6 19.04 15.58 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 3.64 3.8 3.95 4.11 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 327.60 282 260 270 256 225 USD Million [+]
Remittances 556.60 689 561 558 556 748 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 395.00 549 123 409 84.36 411 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 74 74 84.47 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -5.2 -4.6 -4.6 -7.02 -3.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -640325.00 -711563 -723106 -734649 -746192 -704944 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 1015106.70 1024759 1024530 1024302 1024074 996765 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2333883.00 2617130 2671181 2725233 2779284 3186086 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9702466.00 10264497 10432904 10591886 10742155 11692634 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1693558.00 1854420 1896060 1937699 1979338 2334633 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2058.10 2004 1991 1978 1965 1894 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.40 3.03 3.9 4.39 4.67 5 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.00 75.87 76.65 77.42 78.2 80.67 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 373245.00 666609 619915 573222 526529 525581 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3268.00 2794 2600 2460 2366 2195 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 8527.30 10694 11177 11561 11851 11723 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 85420.00 105477 109136 112837 116460 128232 IP [+]
Services Pmi 55.30 58.63 59.23 59.49 59.62 59.78 [+]
Business Confidence 85.00 101 99.94 96.33 97.4 104 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 35 35 34 34 33 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 87 88 89 89 84 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.08 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.05 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 85.00 73 73 73 73 69 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 111.00 84 83 83 82 103 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 54.80 56.47 55.84 55.69 55.65 55.64 [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.00 3.23 2.51 2.52 2.54 2.56 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Spending 8003788.60 8434510 8513920 8593330 8672741 9205205 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 23.80 21.83 21.72 21.62 21.51 20.06 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4536709.70 4524593 4521774 4519010 4516462 4496262 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.55 8.5 11.8 11.96 12.1 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 2802.00 2958 3071 2991 3062 2958 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 20 20 21 21 23 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 17 18 18 19 23 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 11 12 12 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 25.41 24.52 23.64 22.76 22.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 17.41 16.52 15.64 14.76 14.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 216.00 139 139 139 139 139 mm [+]
Temperature 26.00 26.6 26.62 26.6 26.59 26.6 celsius [+]