Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30 4 5.3 5.9 5.5 5.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.3 5 4.3 4.5 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 7.10 5.7 5.5 6.8 4.8 7.3 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7 7 7 6 6 percent
Balance of Trade -999.40 -802 -781 -756 -740 -650 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 74 74 82.25 74 69 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 154.00
155 156 157 158 162
Stock Market 6421.92
points
6346 6246 6148 6052 5333
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.30
percent
4 5.3 5.9 5.5 5.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30
percent
4 5.3 6 5.5 5.2
GDP 81.32
USD Billion
82.95 82.7 82.45 82.2 78.3
GDP Constant Prices 2351384.00
LKR Million
2232487 2209652 2314651 2436762 2363365
Gross National Product 11506217.00
LKR Million
11597805 11904400 12210995 12517590 15392655
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3263242.60
LKR Million
3128597 3238278 3347959 3457640 3703542
GDP per capita 3759.20
USD
3780 3809 3838 3867 4128
GDP per capita PPP 11417.30
USD
11455 11542 11629 11716 12325
GDP From Agriculture 153543.00
LKR Million
156975 155394 153471 158007 156011
GDP From Construction 155299.00
LKR Million
185702 177722 165450 170874 167565
GDP From Manufacturing 362018.00
LKR Million
394028 296570 366344 324101 318714
GDP From Mining 54670.00
LKR Million
57479 56480 55591 55917 54556
Gdp From Public Administration 108246.00
LKR Million
163290 212192 130073 193131 195451
GDP From Services 1367740.00
LKR Million
1287156 1304774 1327537 1335373 1309684
GDP From Transport 273057.00
LKR Million
221768 215461 260815 267012 253275
GDP From Utilities 24583.00
LKR Million
24278 24428 24354 24240 23679
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20
percent
4.3 5 4.3 4.5 4.6
Employed Persons 8163869.00
8141663 8135207 8130673 8123058 8061278
Unemployed Persons 358350.00
367713 367861 370240 371388 388622
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.60
percent
53.42 53.28 53.12 52.96 51.94
Population 21.20
Million
21.16 21.22 21.28 21.34 21.62
Wages High Skilled 60700.00
LKR/Month
57044 57606 58168 58729 56940
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00
LKR/Month
23450 23114 22778 22442 22783
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.30
percent
19.19 19.47 19.3 19.44 20.29
Employment Rate 95.80
percent
95.65 95.57 95.56 95.51 95.13
Living Wage Family 42700.00
LKR/Month
42700 42700 42700 42700 42700
Living Wage Individual 25100.00
LKR/Month
25100 25100 25100 25100 25100
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month
10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 7.10
percent
5.7 5.5 6.8 4.8 7.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 122.90
Index Points
123 123 123 123 123
Core Consumer Prices 123.80
Index Points
124 124 124 124 124
Core Inflation Rate 4.30
percent
4.75 5.13 5.44 5.7 6.61
GDP Deflator 131.40
Index Points
134 134 135 135 132
Producer Prices 130.20
Index Points
130 129 128 127 121
Export Prices 139.63
Index Points
138 137 136 135 127
Import Prices 112.70
Index Points
118 117 117 116 112
Producer Prices Change 14.80
percent
11.36 9.83 8.95 8.49 8.09
CPI Transportation 98.60
Index Points
102 105 108 110 121
Food Inflation 14.40
percent
9.52 6.02 5.68 6.31 6.54
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.56 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7 7 7 6 6
Interbank Rate 10.06
percent
10.15 10.39 10.62 10.82 11.78
Money Supply M0 581695.00
LKR Million
581261 580778 580485 580256 578537
Money Supply M1 743190.00
LKR Million
736220 734578 733788 733264 730042
Money Supply M2 5532510.00
LKR Million
5465367 5462291 5452413 5443961 5377178
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1114525.60
LKR Million
1121361 1114815 1108203 1101636 1050902
Banks Balance Sheet 7435650.00
LKR Million
7983963 8176252 8347515 8499353 9177950
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20
percent
6.57 6.74 6.9 7.07 8.66
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent
7.53 7.58 7.63 7.68 8.16
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1674067.00
LKR Million
1644301 1640367 1634988 1630022 1590898
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -999.40
USD Million
-802 -781 -756 -740 -650
Exports 941.00
USD Million
950 938 928 918 853
Imports 1940.00
USD Million
1790 1786 1772 1756 1639
Current Account -426.00
USD Million
-459 -536 -451 -484 -431
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -3.12 -2.2 -3.5
External Debt 50202.34
USD Million
51049 51256 51088 51081 48122
Terms of Trade 123.90
Index Points
114 114 113 112 110
Tourist Arrivals 244536.00
191000 125000 154000 232000 244000
Gold Reserves 22.25
Tonnes
21.56 20.94 20.33 19.77 16.52
Terrorism Index 2.91
3.25 3.19 3.13 3.07 4.54
Tourism Revenues 287.40
USD Million
269 276 268 263 220
Remittances 562.20
USD Million
528 528 526 710 748
Foreign Direct Investment 80.00
USD Million
115 329 78.89 481 360
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.30
percent
74 74 82.25 74 69
Government Budget -5.40
percent of GDP
-4.6 -4.6 -6.77 -4.6 -3.5
Government Budget Value -640325.00
LKR Million
-770586 -750911 -731237 -711563 -704944
Government Spending 1015106.70
LKR Million
1010188 1015045 1019902 1024759 996765
Fiscal Expenditure 2333883.00
LKR Million
2449583 2505432 2561281 2617130 3186086
Government Debt 10269140.00
LKR Million
10750076 10943858 11099052 11315342 12961730
Government Revenues 1693558.00
LKR Million
1708238 1756966 1805693 1854420 2334633
Military Expenditure 2058.10
USD Million
2027 2020 2012 2004 1894
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.40
percent
3.9 4.39 4.67 4.82 5
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
75.13 75.38 75.62 75.87 80.67
Changes in Inventories 373245.00
LKR Million
379618 475282 570945 666609 525581
Car Registrations 3872.00
Cars
3210 2896 2665 2506 2213
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps
11177 11561 11851 12058 11723
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP
109136 112837 116460 119224 128232
Services Pmi 61.20
59.74 59.53 59.53 59.54 59.55
Business Confidence 95.00
Index Points
100 96.33 98.19 102 106
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
35 35 35 35 33
Corruption Rank 95.00
85 86 87 87 84
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.05
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
73 73 73 73 69
Ease of Doing Business 111.00
101 98 95 92 90
Manufacturing Pmi 59.10
56.65 56.07 55.94 55.91 55.9
Manufacturing Production 4.40
percent
2.94 2.86 2.87 2.87 2.87
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Spending 8003788.60
LKR Million
8265360 8321743 8378126 8434510 9205205
Personal Savings 23.80
percent
21.32 21.49 21.66 21.83 20.06
Private Sector Credit 4638897.60
LKR Million
4622517 4618036 4615014 4612546 4594871
Bank Lending Rate 11.43
percent
11.7 11.86 12.01 8.8 9.5
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 769.90
Index Points
775 780 785 792 812
Building Permits 2722.00
2980 2843 2945 2888 2888
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
26 24 22 20 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
23 21 19 17 23
Sales Tax Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 11 15 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent
21 23 24 25 23
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
13.5 14.8 16.1 17.41 14.85
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm
95.23 118 91.95 265 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius
26.41 28.13 27.48 26.01 27.61