Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.40 4.6 6.9 4.8 4.8 6 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.25 8 percent
Balance of Trade -933.00 -941 -934 -933 -934 -934 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 77.60 74 74 72 72 69 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 159.45
159 160 161 162 165
Stock Market 6133.99
points
5964 5884 5804 5726 5423
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20
percent
4.3 4.7 5.1 4.8 5.2
GDP 87.17
USD Billion
90.6 90.6 94.8 94.8 96.1
GDP Constant Prices 2223856.00
LKR Million
2413496 2755861 2337273 2287912 3058620
Gross National Product 12928685.00
LKR Million
11753601 13536333 13588048 12058515 15023435
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3502123.90
LKR Million
3333402 3666724 3680732 3419878 4069550
GDP per capita 3842.30
USD
4000 4000 4230 4230 4350
GDP per capita PPP 11669.10
USD
11907 11907 12150 12150 12303
GDP From Agriculture 154906.00
LKR Million
162907 186643 162806 161132 207148
GDP From Construction 164173.00
LKR Million
155217 199323 172546 166787 221220
GDP From Manufacturing 690910.00
LKR Million
640996 668825 726146 578887 742302
GDP From Mining 59172.00
LKR Million
58280 71339 62190 59141 79177
Gdp From Public Administration 95951.00
LKR Million
110585 130018 100845 106794 144301
GDP From Services 1269230.00
LKR Million
1390665 1471413 1333961 1369979 1633062
GDP From Transport 222731.00
LKR Million
281093 318028 234090 201980 352967
GDP From Utilities 24972.00
LKR Million
25352 24957 26246 24637 27699
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent
4.2 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.6
Employed Persons 8299911.00
8230536 8257124 8261081 8250645 8251615
Unemployed Persons 342210.00
343143 341808 341441 340905 339608
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.00
percent
52.46 52.71 52.45 52.34 51.91
Population 21.44
Million
21.53 21.59 21.62 21.66 22.02
Wages High Skilled 60700.00
LKR/Month
61700 61700 61700 58162 62500
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00
LKR/Month
25500 25500 25500 23256 26000
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.40
percent
18.38 18.14 18.12 18.21 18.21
Employment Rate 95.50
percent
95.58 95.62 95.57 95.58 95.55
Living Wage Family 42700.00
LKR/Month
42700 42700 43700 42700 43700
Living Wage Individual 25100.00
LKR/Month
25100 25100 25100 25100 25100
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month
10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.40
percent
4.6 6.9 4.8 4.8 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 125.40
Index Points
125 130 127 131 147
Core Consumer Prices 125.10
Index Points
127 128 129 129 137
Core Inflation Rate 3.40
percent
3.4 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39
GDP Deflator 142.70
Index Points
138 139 138 137 129
Producer Prices 129.80
Index Points
132 138 137 140 150
Export Prices 150.78
Index Points
147 136 133 139 138
Import Prices 131.92
Index Points
130 130 130 130 130
Inflation Rate Mom 2.00
percent
-0.09 0.57 0.34 0.42 0.4
Producer Prices Change 5.20
percent
4.54 4.45 4.42 4.41 4.41
CPI Transportation 107.90
Index Points
102 105 104 113 118
Food Inflation 2.90
percent
5.07 6.66 6.74 6.42 6.35
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.5 7.25 8
Interbank Rate 10.02
percent
10.02 10.02 10.27 10.02 10.77
Money Supply M0 598054.00
LKR Million
630793 643725 656496 669228 793393
Money Supply M1 790970.00
LKR Million
835615 844988 856013 867458 966130
Money Supply M2 6047720.00
LKR Million
5964570 5950488 5954081 5953239 5953384
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1566323.60
LKR Million
1562096 1572969 1573009 1573391 1573407
Banks Balance Sheet 7824839.00
LKR Million
8653997 8928490 9201675 9473718 12136564
Deposit Interest Rate 7.10
percent
7.1 7.1 7.35 7.1 7.85
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1604834.00
LKR Million
1601137 1601365 1601316 1601329 1601326
Lending Rate 8.50
percent
8.5 8.5 8.75 8.5 9.25
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -933.00
USD Million
-941 -934 -933 -934 -934
Exports 924.00
USD Million
903 918 923 921 921
Imports 1857.00
USD Million
1844 1853 1856 1855 1855
Current Account -709.00
USD Million
-487 -579 -586 -638 -590
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5
External Debt 52090.15
USD Million
53523 54193 54878 55568 62439
Terms of Trade 114.30
Index Points
113 105 103 107 106
Tourist Arrivals 146828.00
154000 232000 186100 184300 244000
Gold Reserves 22.30
Tonnes
22.28 22.29 22.29 22.27 22.27
Terrorism Index 2.91
3.13 3.07 3.19 3.31 5.04
Tourism Revenues 240.10
USD Million
379 330 351 342 345
Remittances 580.40
USD Million
612 710 609 610 748
Foreign Direct Investment 387.00
USD Million
393 847 398 842 817
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 77.60
percent
74 74 72 72 69
Government Budget -5.50
percent of GDP
-5.95 -4.6 -5.93 -5.89 -3.5
Government Budget Value -733494.00
LKR Million
-716346 -757034 -753057 -757034 -797696
Government Spending 1130674.00
LKR Million
1036931 1183816 1188338 1063832 1313870
Fiscal Expenditure 2573056.00
LKR Million
2688588 2752386 2796428 2840471 3271638
Government Debt 10654098.00
LKR Million
11104897 11329476 11553511 11777002 13982300
Government Revenues 1839562.00
LKR Million
1972242 2003306 2043372 2083437 2473942
Military Expenditure 1842.50
USD Million
1834 1871 1871 1871 1862
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 5.70
percent
4.81 4.92 5.03 5.08 5.16
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
75.62 75.84 76.51 77.19 79.28
Changes in Inventories 1217425.70
LKR Million
619131 499536 479998 460460 302188
Car Registrations 3952.00
4137 4207 4205 4196 4198
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps
11851 12058 12192 12261 10837
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP
92491 91787 92258 92346 92257
Services Pmi 56.90
56.04 56.27 56.27 56.4 56.46
Business Confidence 87.00
Index Points
82.73 85.1 78.38 71.38 52.28
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
36 36 36 36 35
Corruption Rank 91.00
90 89 90 92 92
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.18 4.18 4.1 4.07 4.06
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
71 71 76 77 72
Ease of Doing Business 111.00
95 92 91 90 93
Manufacturing Pmi 60.60
56.39 55.96 55.86 55.84 55.84
Manufacturing Production 1.90
percent
0.33 0.83 1.32 0.79 0.93
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 8262817.00
LKR Million
8175870 8651169 8684221 8387970 9601587
Personal Savings 23.80
percent
23 23.39 23.46 23.52 23.8
Private Sector Credit 5024464.80
LKR Million
5287269 5431961 5577883 5723664 7137671
Bank Lending Rate 11.42
percent
11.42 11.42 11.67 11.42 12.17
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 778.40
Index Points
785 792 798 837 812
Building Permits 2722.00
2900 2695 2835 2706 2741
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 26.5 27 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16.5 17 18
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 22.5 23 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12.88 12.88 14.44 14.97 15.82
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm
91.95 265 95.42 143 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius
27.48 26.01 26.46 27.57 27.61