Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 4.5 4.1 4 5.3 5.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.8 4.6 4.3 5 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.00 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.5 4.31 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -575.00 -596 -824 -583 -573 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 78 74 74 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 152.75 151 150 148 147 130 [+]
Stock Market 6427.26 6670 6600 6530 6460 5720 points [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.00 4.5 4.1 4 5.3 5.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 4.5 4.1 4 5.3 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 81.32 82.24 81.91 81.61 81.32 77.68 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2211612.00 2262138 2262203 2262205 2262205 2262205 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 11506217.00 12210995 12517590 12765882 13014173 15392655 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3263242.60 3611420 3720760 3798944 3877128 4297090 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3759.20 3860 3880 3910 3940 4234 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11417.30 11725 11785 11876 11967 12859 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 153981.00 155814 157637 152901 150944 152969 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 176468.00 175437 203111 205470 189726 230951 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 292458.00 404972 341809 404217 342555 346028 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 56120.00 64629 66220 64791 64222 68689 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 195555.00 191470 194330 193448 193720 193656 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1329429.00 1248379 1248404 1248405 1248405 1248405 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 211725.00 262312 272454 223773 217246 255393 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23271.00 23332 23525 23710 23937 26174 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.8 4.6 4.3 5 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8230207.00 8092536 8087335 8131715 8121971 8114064 [+]
Unemployed Persons 352875.00 348254 346158 345478 344707 342846 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.70 54.24 54.17 54.3 54.31 54.28 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 9386 9756 10026 10296 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 21.20 21.27 21.34 21.37 21.4 21.76 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.90 96.02 96.07 96.1 96.13 96.19 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 55614.20 53773 54836 54004 54655 54394 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30889.70 30053 30053 30053 30053 30053 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50172 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 18.50 20.12 20.24 19.85 19.74 19.89 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.00 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.5 4.31 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 118.80 119 121 122 123 133 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.00 123 125 126 127 140 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.90 4.88 4.95 5 5.02 5.04 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 131.40 133 134 134 133 131 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 126.70 133 137 141 144 163 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 141.12 131 122 121 126 124 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 122.99 121 121 121 121 121 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 97.90 97.93 97.99 97.99 97.99 97.99 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 6.90 7.36 6.64 6.05 5.94 6.06 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 0.13 0.51 0.5 0.46 0.48 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 17.50 21.54 22.21 22.62 22.85 23.12 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.22 10.51 10.53 10.72 10.9 11.78 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 580066.00 586366 600681 614806 628927 767558 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 753900.00 771960 778478 785622 792708 846020 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 5281400.00 4517140 4517122 4517122 4517122 4517122 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1031583.60 766998 766779 766741 766736 766735 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7056044.90 7557911 7829987 8099682 8367825 10984737 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.20 6.58 6.66 6.84 7.03 7.61 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.51 7.54 7.6 7.65 8.09 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1397221.50 1447329 1447680 1447513 1447553 1447539 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -575.00 -596 -824 -583 -573 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 1016.00 950 937 928 918 840 USD Million [+]
Imports 1591.00 1562 1559 1548 1535 1422 USD Million [+]
Current Account -708.00 -542 -717 -553 -681 -614 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.6 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 46514.00 47821 48374 48898 49435 54871 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 114.73 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 190928.00 151000 227000 191000 125000 244000 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.29 22.28 22.28 22.29 22.28 22.28 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 76.00 214 218 218 218 218 USD Million [+]
Remittances 575.40 599 689 598 598 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 3.81 3.64 3.8 3.95 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 209.10 333 352 341 345 344 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 78 74 74 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -5.2 -5.2 -4.6 -4.6 -3.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -640325.00 -747576 -733337 -748985 -764633 -742055 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 1015106.70 1027210 1031324 1032363 1033402 1030216 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2333883.00 2496253 2496683 2536745 2576807 2969935 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9702466.00 10154756 10379965 10604553 10828522 13034505 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1693558.00 1805693 1854420 1896060 1937699 2334633 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2058.10 2027 2013 2005 1998 1985 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Industrial Production 0.40 0.75 2.47 3.35 3.87 4.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.00 75.62 75.84 76.51 77.19 80.39 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 373245.00 749934 875595 778360 681125 488213 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3024.00 3925 3930 3923 3923 3924 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 85.00 84.46 87.14 82.15 72.57 44.38 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 37 37 36 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 102 108 106 103 113 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.26 4.26 4.15 4.11 4.14 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 69 69 69 69 68 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 89 84 83 83 103 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 54.40 55.61 55.58 55.6 55.61 55.63 [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.80 2.49 2.63 2.39 2.42 2.46 percent [+]
Services Pmi 60.10 57.6 58.15 58.28 58.25 58.24 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Spending 8003788.60 8379723 8457531 8550907 8644283 9487255 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 23.80 23.3 23.36 23.4 23.43 23.48 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4500738.70 4634216 4774387 4915187 5055754 6426026 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 12.26 12.27 8.5 12.53 12.61 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 2802.00 3254 3156 3248 3057 3146 [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 20.47 18.72 18.56 18.4 20.57 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 19.19 17.38 17.85 18.32 22.63 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 11 15 11 11 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 24.1 25.41 24.52 23.64 22.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 16.1 17.41 16.52 15.64 14.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]