Sri Lanka - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 5.3 3.3 5.5 3 5.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 5 4 4.5 4 4.6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.80 6.7 3.9 6.9 5.8 6 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 8 percent
Balance of Trade -871.00 -898 -808 -839 -854 -854 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 77.60 74 74 74 72 69 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 157.90
157 158 159 160 164
Stock Market 6471.09
points
6350 6253 6157 6063 5701
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40
percent
5.3 3.3 5.5 3 5.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.20
percent
4 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.2
GDP 81.32
USD Billion
82.35 82.07 81.8 75.9 72.3
GDP Constant Prices 2623541.00
LKR Million
2226577 2404669 2746847 2264875 3048616
Gross National Product 12928685.00
LKR Million
11736341 11753601 13536333 12093034 15023435
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3502123.90
LKR Million
3328507 3333402 3522530 3429668 3909515
GDP per capita 3759.20
USD
3841 4119 3880 4234 4346
GDP per capita PPP 11417.30
USD
11665 11725 11785 12859 13200
GDP From Agriculture 178263.00
LKR Million
150739 162905 186641 161592 207146
GDP From Construction 169399.00
LKR Million
162400 168300 177361 181411 196846
GDP From Manufacturing 346170.00
LKR Million
308985 391438 362440 448542 402258
GDP From Mining 63989.00
LKR Million
57361 53613 66996 61805 74357
Gdp From Public Administration 124181.00
LKR Million
103941 110585 130018 101243 144301
GDP From Services 1405315.00
LKR Million
1239692 1390617 1471365 1373845 1633009
GDP From Transport 303746.00
LKR Million
196576 281087 318022 231287 352960
GDP From Utilities 23837.00
LKR Million
23979 25351 24957 23808 27699
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
5 4 4.5 4 4.6
Employed Persons 8299911.00
8237243 8230536 8257124 8261081 8251615
Unemployed Persons 342210.00
345526 343143 341808 341441 339608
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.10
percent
54.16 54.02 54.04 54.09 54.08
Population 21.44
Million
21.47 21.53 21.59 21.62 22.02
Wages High Skilled 60700.00
LKR/Month
61700 61700 61700 61700 62500
Wages Low Skilled 24500.00
LKR/Month
25500 25500 25500 25500 26000
Youth Unemployment Rate 17.40
percent
18.42 18.38 18.14 18.12 18.21
Employment Rate 96.00
percent
96.02 96.05 96.08 96.09 96.15
Living Wage Family 42700.00
LKR/Month
42700 42700 42700 43700 43700
Living Wage Individual 25100.00
LKR/Month
25100 25100 25100 25100 25100
Minimum Wages 10000.00
LKR/Month
10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.80
percent
6.7 3.9 6.9 5.8 6
Consumer Price Index CPI 121.50
Index Points
126 124 131 128 147
Core Consumer Prices 124.80
Index Points
128 129 129 130 138
Core Inflation Rate 3.40
percent
3.92 4.25 4.41 4.49 3.52
GDP Deflator 142.70
Index Points
143 143 143 143 143
Producer Prices 131.60
Index Points
143 146 153 155 205
Export Prices 142.65
Index Points
134 135 133 134 134
Import Prices 129.80
Index Points
123 123 122 122 117
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.74 0.34 0.48 0.43 0.44
Producer Prices Change 9.10
percent
12.07 15.03 16.73 16.89 15.72
CPI Transportation 100.40
Index Points
102 102 105 105 118
Food Inflation 5.10
percent
4.81 6.03 6.53 6.47 6.34
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 8
Interbank Rate 10.01
percent
10.05 10.05 10.05 10.3 10.8
Money Supply M0 598054.00
LKR Million
572492 565787 577212 561502 565445
Money Supply M1 841180.00
LKR Million
750120 764882 784250 763059 755631
Money Supply M2 5995490.00
LKR Million
5759480 5678368 5539740 5382469 5493451
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1141673.10
LKR Million
1142380 1143847 1143496 1143456 1143464
Banks Balance Sheet 7596346.00
LKR Million
7476552 7448209 7425982 7408550 7349563
Deposit Interest Rate 7.10
percent
6.36 6.78 7.2 7.57 7.86
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1601147.00
LKR Million
1605563 1618862 1615143 1612858 1617453
Lending Rate 8.50
percent
8.75 8.75 8.75 9 9.5
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -871.00
USD Million
-898 -808 -839 -854 -854
Exports 1108.00
USD Million
960 949 942 960 955
Imports 1979.00
USD Million
1858 1757 1769 1813 1809
Current Account -1104.00
USD Million
-883 -491 -708 -535 -601
Current Account to GDP -2.60
percent
-2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -3.2 -3.5
External Debt 51909.32
USD Million
53113 53829 54452 55081 62069
Terms of Trade 109.90
Index Points
109 110 110 110 115
Tourist Arrivals 180429.00
125000 154000 232000 177900 244000
Gold Reserves 22.20
Tonnes
22.21 22.2 22.21 22.22 22.21
Terrorism Index 2.91
3.19 3.13 3.07 3.19 5.04
Tourism Revenues 432.80
USD Million
430 426 435 429 431
Remittances 579.53
USD Million
544 544 710 544 748
Foreign Direct Investment 964.00
USD Million
194 194 194 194 194
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 77.60
percent
74 74 74 72 69
Government Budget -5.50
percent of GDP
-4.6 -6.26 -4.6 -6.05 -3.5
Government Budget Value -733494.00
LKR Million
-743502 -747322 -760061 -762335 -821223
Government Spending 1130674.00
LKR Million
1035409 1036931 1095764 1066877 1216145
Fiscal Expenditure 2573056.00
LKR Million
2496879 2548833 2600787 2650922 3220147
Government Debt 10313045.00
LKR Million
10943858 11099052 11315342 11506825 12961730
Government Revenues 1839562.00
LKR Million
1753377 1801511 1849644 1888587 2398924
Military Expenditure 1842.50
USD Million
1998 1992 1986 1968 1731
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 10.30
percent
7.06 6.4 5.93 5.66 5.28
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent
75.38 75.62 75.87 76.65 79.27
Changes in Inventories 1217425.70
LKR Million
624743 750413 876084 778685 252508
Car Registrations 2439.00
3124 3124 3124 3124 3124
Internet Speed 8527.30
KBps
11561 11851 12058 12192 10837
IP Addresses 85420.00
IP
90877 92491 91787 92258 92257
Services Pmi 53.20
57.36 56.1 56.37 56.39 56.62
Business Confidence 97.00
Index Points
90 90 90 90 90
Corruption Index 38.00
Points
38 38 38 38 38
Corruption Rank 91.00
91 91 91 91 91
Competitiveness Index 4.08
Points
4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13 4.13
Competitiveness Rank 85.00
78 78 78 78 78
Ease of Doing Business 111.00
111 111 111 111 111
Manufacturing Pmi 45.50
58.96 57.07 56.41 56.19 56.08
Manufacturing Production 0.10
percent
3.52 2.56 2.25 2.74 2.43
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Spending 8262817.00
LKR Million
8163864 8175870 8639746 8411982 9588908
Personal Savings 23.80
percent
22.6 23 23.39 23.46 23.8
Private Sector Credit 4901731.60
LKR Million
5094995 5237612 5379894 5521482 7022755
Bank Lending Rate 11.55
percent
11.53 11.47 8.8 11.5 9.5
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 778.40
Index Points
780 785 792 798 812
Building Permits 2722.00
2722 2722 2722 2722 2722
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent
28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 14 15
Social Security Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 216.65
mm
118 91.95 265 95.42 146
Temperature 26.51
celsius
28.13 27.48 26.01 26.46 27.61