Sri Lanka | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Sri Lanka including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Sri Lanka economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 5.30 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.73 6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.90 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.2 7.14 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -828.00 -620 -843 -824 -840 -650 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 78 78 80.27 69 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 152.38 153 155 159 158 182 [+]
Stock Market 6697.86 6020 5960 5780 5840 4860 points [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 5.30 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.73 6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.30 5.8 4.5 4.1 5.3 5.2 percent [+]
GDP 82.32 84.7 85.48 86.26 86.98 94.61 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2526738.00 2358932 2357108 2356908 2356886 2356883 LKR Million [+]
Gross National Product 11506217.00 11904400 12210995 12517590 12765882 15392655 LKR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3263242.60 3502079 3611420 3720760 3798944 4297090 LKR Million [+]
GDP per capita 3637.54 3708 3741 3773 3806 4292 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 11047.67 11260 11358 11455 11555 13010 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 162824.00 153900 156019 157801 153376 153306 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 200970.00 161665 174753 199615 188140 221089 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 329307.00 333682 346220 336378 344104 340469 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Mining 62337.00 57456 63298 64746 62204 66165 LKR Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 229336.00 199175 196091 228748 192703 222277 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Services 1337672.00 1348008 1369362 1388499 1325056 1537034 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 282674.00 217003 261310 273198 234254 257151 LKR Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 23258.00 24183 24683 24847 25222 28043 LKR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8006700.00 7944537 7967828 7978541 7974882 7970616 [+]
Unemployed Persons 348141.00 348924 346798 344583 343785 340960 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.00 53.86 53.85 53.88 53.91 53.89 percent [+]
Wages 8839.35 9016 9386 9756 10026 11566 LKR/Month [+]
Population 21.20 21.21 21.27 21.34 21.37 21.76 Million [+]
Employment Rate 95.80 95.79 95.77 95.85 95.83 95.9 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 55614.20 55131 53773 54836 54004 54394 LKR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 30889.70 30061 30053 30053 30053 30053 LKR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 51400.00 50172 50172 50172 50172 50172 LKR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 25000.00 25000 25000 25000 25000 25000 LKR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 21.00 21.44 22 21.66 22.22 21.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.90 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.2 7.14 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 121.00 122 124 125 127 142 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.50 123 125 126 127 142 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.80 6.76 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 131.40 133 133 134 134 131 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 120.60 124 127 129 131 137 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.60 126 119 114 120 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 114.84 116 116 116 116 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 95.90 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 95.92 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.60 7.43 6.14 5.94 6.11 6.19 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.73 0.44 0.52 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 18.90 22.4 26.31 28.9 30.81 35.58 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.17 11.19 11.16 11.17 11.16 11.16 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 552778.00 571047 586366 600681 614806 767558 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 782000.00 789537 802211 816648 831456 971879 LKR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 5096200.00 1571569 5281086 2379335 4956299 2434939 LKR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 819298.30 822035 821369 821343 821335 821334 LKR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6395680.60 6994919 7209623 7423074 7635548 9915211 LKR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.00 6.39 6.41 6.43 6.65 7.51 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1455448.20 1467602 1466181 1466427 1466313 1466331 LKR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -828.00 -620 -843 -824 -840 -650 USD Million [+]
Exports 1042.00 948 930 937 939 938 USD Million [+]
Imports 1869.00 1790 1757 1762 1768 1767 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1172.00 -896 -475 -709 -519 -597 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2 -3.17 -2.3 -3.32 -3.5 percent [+]
External Debt 46585.70 47669 48211 48752 49293 55231 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 85.86 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Tourist Arrivals 160249.00 12 7 179798 179698 179759 [+]
Gold Reserves 22.27 22.23 22.27 22.27 22.28 22.27 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 636.00 241 241 241 241 241 USD Million [+]
Remittances 568.70 648 599 689 598 748 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 3.49 3.98 3.81 3.64 3.8 6.01 [+]
Tourism Revenues 322.70 359 333 352 341 344 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 79.30 78 78 78 80.27 69 percent [+]
Government Budget -5.40 -5.2 -5.2 -5.2 -4.6 -3.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -640325.00 -761814 -747576 -733337 -748985 -742055 LKR Million [+]
Government Spending 1015106.70 1023096 1027210 1031324 1032363 1030216 LKR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 2333883.00 2495824 2496253 2496683 2536745 2969935 LKR Million [+]
Government Debt 9387303.00 9500468 9734726 9800515 9888995 10744494 LKR Million [+]
Government Revenues 1693558.00 1756966 1805693 1854420 1896060 2334633 LKR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 1860.90 1929 1888 1847 1844 1833 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 5.60 5.7 5.28 5.32 5.35 5.38 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.00 75.41 75.62 75.84 76.51 80.39 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 373245.00 624273 749934 875595 778360 488213 LKR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3916.00 4026 4065 4075 4066 4067 Cars [+]
Business Confidence 102.00 81.56 86.15 87.93 80.56 48.52 [+]
Corruption Index 36.00 37 37 37 37 36 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 95.00 95 102 108 106 113 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.19 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.11 4.14 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 71.00 69 69 69 69 68 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 110.00 94 89 84 83 103 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 41.80 59.88 57.46 56.65 56.46 56.58 [+]
Services Pmi 54.20 57.51 56.17 55.45 54.91 49.48 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Spending 8003788.60 8301916 8379723 8457531 8550907 9487255 LKR Million [+]
Personal Savings 23.80 23.24 23.3 23.36 23.4 23.48 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 4267507.00 4448396 4584376 4720257 4855664 6302317 LKR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.78 8.3 11.79 8.5 11.79 9.5 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 2991.00 3128 3534 3347 3441 3355 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 22.21 20.47 18.72 18.56 20.57 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 21 19.19 17.38 17.85 22.63 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 11.00 15 11 15 11 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 20.00 22.8 24.1 25.41 24.52 22.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 14.8 16.1 17.41 16.52 14.85 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]