Romania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.7 4.8 4.8 5 5.4 percent
Inflation Rate 5.20 4.2 3.6 3.2 3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade -1056.70 -1720 -1030 -1670 -890 -1400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.00 36.2 36.2 36.2 35.4 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 3.94
 3.87 3.94 4.02 4.09 4.41
Stock Market 8254.11
points		 8488 8253 8024 7801 6972
Government Bond 10Y 4.91
percent		 4.68 4.86 5.05 5.24 6.08
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00
percent		 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00
percent		 4.5 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.2
GDP 186.69
USD Billion		 186 188 194 202 211
GDP Constant Prices 40121.20
RON Million		 39352 40735 41927 39451 44869
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 11062.30
RON Million		 8904 9814 11560 8538 12371
GDP per capita 10080.97
USD		 10620 10620 10620 10870 11170
GDP per capita PPP 21647.81
USD		 21709 22024 22339 23361 23515
GDP From Agriculture 2405.30
RON Million		 2887 3596 2514 2934 2690
GDP From Construction 2136.10
RON Million		 2342 2472 2232 2532 2389
GDP From Manufacturing 9183.10
RON Million		 8700 8727 9596 8694 10270
GDP From Public Administration 1450.80
RON Million		 1436 1379 1516 1474 1622
GDP From Services 10947.90
RON Million		 10145 10450 11441 9938 12244
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent		 4.7 4.8 4.8 5 5.4
Employed Persons 4902.00
Thousand 		4890 4893 4894 4894 4894
Unemployed Persons 332.70
Thousand 		352 359 366 371 366
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90
percent		 2.14 2.18 2.22 2.26 2.59
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.70
percent		 17.71 17.71 17.71 17.71 17.71
Labour Costs 97.60
Index Points		 103 105 104 104 104
Job Vacancies 1.13
percent		 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19
Wages 4488.00
RON/Month		 3800 3800 4100 4200 4800
Wages in Manufacturing 3933.00
RON/Month		 3350 3400 3420 3500 3650
Minimum Wages 407.86
EUR/Month		 408 408 408 450 500
Population 19.64
Million		 19.58 19.58 19.58 19.48 19.26
Retirement Age Women 60.92
 60.92 60.92 60.92 61.17 61.42
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Productivity 165.90
Index Points		 147 146 147 147 147
Part Time Employment 504.60
Thousand		 599 563 526 549 551
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.20
percent		 56.35 56.35 56.35 56.35 56.35
Living Wage Family 2210.00
RON/Month		 2300 2300 2300 2400 2400
Living Wage Individual 1370.00
RON/Month		 1370 1370 1370 1370 1370
Wages High Skilled 2760.00
RON/Month		 2800 2800 2800 2850 2900
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00
RON/Month		 1400 1400 1400 1400 1480
Full Time Employment 7762.00
Thousand		 7940 7940 7940 7940 7940
Employment Change 0.10
percent		 0.01 -0.21 -0.04 -0.17 -0.11
Employment Rate 63.40
percent		 64.66 64.81 64.77 64.78 64.78
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.20
percent		 4.2 3.6 3.2 3 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.54
Index Points		 105 105 107 108 113
Core Consumer Prices 101.92
Index Points		 104 104 103 104 107
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent		 3.7 3.69 2.94 1.91 1.44
Producer Prices 118.33
Index Points		 117 119 119 123 124
Producer Prices Change 3.80
percent		 2.8 3.67 2.5 3.65 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.54
percent		 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.69
Index Points		 104 104 105 107 112
Food Inflation 4.00
percent		 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5
CPI Transportation 100.13
Index Points		 104 104 103 108 110
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent		 2.5 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.5
Interbank Rate 2.56
percent		 2.6 2.6 2.85 2.85 2.6
Money Supply M0 63453.20
RON Million		 62797 62791 62751 62696 61998
Money Supply M1 208125.70
RON Million		 219943 225653 231267 236560 278872
Money Supply M2 351155.10
RON Million		 365423 374418 383394 392287 484927
Money Supply M3 351275.50
RON Million		 357070 357381 357173 356800 351986
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37165.20
EUR Million		 40030 38568 37569 38054 38633
Banks Balance Sheet 465598.57
RON Million		 465670 465794 465224 464332 452506
Lending Rate 3.50
percent		 3.5 3.5 3.75 3.75 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent		 8.15 8.13 8.14 8.14 8.14
Central Bank Balance Sheet 196459.28
RON Million		 195776 194801 195211 194917 195002
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.5
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1056.70
EUR Million		 -1720 -1030 -1670 -890 -1400
Exports 6105.90
EUR Million		 5250 5720 4710 6220 5380
Imports 7162.60
EUR Million		 6970 6750 6380 7110 6780
Current Account -641.00
EUR Million		 -511 -573 -98.74 -486 -287
Current Account to GDP -3.40
percent		 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6
External Debt 95526.60
EUR Million		 94218 93917 94023 94143 94084
Remittances 861.00
EUR Million		 917 930 925 927 926
Gold Reserves 103.70
Tonnes		 104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million		 33.53 23.74 13.95 15.05 20.92
Foreign Direct Investment 669.90
EUR Million		 263 460 571 245 537
Crude Oil Production 71.00
BBL/D/1K		 74.38 74.43 74.45 74.46 74.46
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.00
percent		 36.2 36.2 36.2 35.4 35
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP		 -2 -2 -2 -3.95 -1.2
Government Budget Value -10883.00
RON Million		 15911 6875 2312 5447 4681
Government Spending 1689.50
RON Million		 1724 1736 1766 1711 1889
Government Spending to GDP 33.40
percent		 36.32 36.15 35.97 36.11 37.58
Government Revenues 29476.70
RON Million		 65491 61405 50922 56078 55721
Government Debt 287239.20
RON Million		 295557 297582 301768 304941 332866
Fiscal Expenditure 40359.70
RON Million		 49580 54531 50901 50632 51040
Military Expenditure 3975.50
USD Million		 2764 2783 2802 2792 2471
Asylum Applications 95.00
persons		 404 475 597 328 369
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Industrial Production 4.10
percent		 5.4 4.2 4 4.5 2.8
Industrial Production Mom 0.50
percent		 2 0.2 3.6 0.5 1
Manufacturing Production 3.40
percent		 6.2 5.1 4.9 5.6 3.6
Capacity Utilization 75.60
percent		 76.84 76.52 76.41 76.38 76.36
Changes in Inventories 2519.70
RON Million		 3435 3571 3527 3541 3538
Car Registrations 151221.00
 162088 162088 162088 162088 162088
Internet Speed 16990.81
KBps		 16742 16631 16470 16317 14667
IP Addresses 3664561.00
IP		 3930532 3990073 4050340 4101472 4701659
Mining Production 7.90
percent		 3.63 2.29 1.36 0.71 -0.73
Business Confidence 0.00
Index Points		 -0.23 -0.59 -0.8 -0.96 -1.41
Competitiveness Index 4.28
Points		 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29
Competitiveness Rank 68.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Ease Of Doing Business 45.00
 37.63 37.26 36.89 37.22 38.04
Electricity Production 6007.00
Gigawatt-hour		 4955 5122 5449 5345 5285
Corruption Index 48.00
Points		 48 48 48 48 48
Corruption Rank 59.00
 59 59 59 59 59
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM 0.60
percent		 1.32 1.14 0.8 0.94 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.20
percent		 11.85 11.77 3.9 11.85 2.9
Consumer Spending 38642.20
RON Million		 37722 39377 40381 37294 43215
Consumer Credit 41585.44
RON Million		 37448 35490 33617 32358 33384
Gasoline Prices 1.41
USD/Liter		 1.25 1.18 1.11 1.04 0.73
Consumer Confidence -23.20
Index Points		 -18.17 -14.87 -16.58 -19.56 -18.7
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output -10.80
percent		 2.79 3.2 3.46 3.64 4.15
Housing Index 113.75
Index Points		 114 114 115 115 114
Home Ownership Rate 96.90
percent		 96.36 96.29 96.23 96.05 96.37
Building Permits 3383.00
 3860 3580 3049 3275 3371
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 39.95
percent		 39.95 39.95 39.95 40 40
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.45
percent		 22.79 22.79 22.79 24.37 26.6
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.50
percent		 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 21.61
celsius		 13.86 18.19 3.93 -0.84 8.97