Romania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.60 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.4 percent
Inflation Rate 4.30 3 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade -1610.10 -1296 -1290 -1236 -1190 -842 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.75
3.86 3.94 4.01 4.08 4.39
Stock Market 8328.50
points
8012 7796 7587 7383 5936
Government Bond 10Y 4.65
percent
4.76 5 5.25 5.52 6.72
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60
percent
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90
percent
4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.2
GDP 186.69
USD Billion
178 183 187 194 211
GDP Constant Prices 39721.70
RON Million
40767 41105 41322 41462 41336
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9570.20
RON Million
8974 8879 8958 8842 8095
GDP per capita 10080.97
USD
10620 10620 10620 10620 11170
GDP per capita PPP 21647.81
USD
21226 21535 21844 22154 21982
GDP From Agriculture 3506.20
RON Million
2878 2673 2666 2702 2714
GDP From Construction 2410.40
RON Million
2361 2356 2336 2317 2186
GDP From Manufacturing 8509.70
RON Million
8445 8430 8417 8404 8294
GDP From Public Administration 1344.30
RON Million
1393 1403 1402 1408 1454
GDP From Services 10190.50
RON Million
10195 10151 10118 10091 9886
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent
5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.4
Employed Persons 4872.10
Thousand
4885 4894 4903 4912 5011
Unemployed Persons 351.10
Thousand
364 374 381 389 456
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90
percent
2.08 2.14 2.18 2.22 2.59
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80
percent
16.99 17.09 17.19 17.28 17.85
Labour Costs 96.90
Index Points
119 120 101 97.11 100
Job Vacancies 1.22
percent
1.11 1.05 1.03 0.99 1
Wages 3662.00
RON/Month
3581 3564 3562 3561 3543
Wages in Manufacturing 3316.00
RON/Month
3212 3189 3184 3182 3158
Minimum Wages 407.86
EUR/Month
408 408 408 408 500
Population 19.64
Million
19.58 19.58 19.58 19.58 19.26
Retirement Age Women 60.67
61 61 61 61 62
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 64
Productivity 151.90
Index Points
117 120 151 153 151
Part Time Employment 576.30
Thousand
571 610 584 572 634
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.10
percent
53.43 56.13 56 53.69 54.8
Living Wage Family 2210.00
RON/Month
2178 2165 2153 2140 2157
Living Wage Individual 1370.00
RON/Month
1308 1303 1298 1293 1308
Wages High Skilled 2760.00
RON/Month
2189 2227 2266 2305 2177
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00
RON/Month
1199 1221 1243 1266 1199
Full Time Employment 7938.50
Thousand
7632 7871 7912 7730 7829
Employment Change 0.00
percent
-0.11 -0.18 -0.31 -0.29 -0.27
Employment Rate 65.30
percent
61.55 64.97 65.03 61.9 62.41
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30
percent
3 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.12
Index Points
104 104 104 104 103
Core Consumer Prices 101.22
Index Points
102 102 102 102 101
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
1.19 1.38 1.53 1.67 3.22
Producer Prices 116.44
Index Points
123 123 116 127 140
Producer Prices Change 3.70
percent
2.8 2.8 3.77 2.5 2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.78
percent
0.36 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.98
Index Points
103 104 104 104 103
Food Inflation 4.07
percent
2.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 3
CPI Transportation 100.21
Index Points
100 100 101 101 101
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.25 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.5
Interbank Rate 1.88
percent
2.67 5.8 7.59 9.5 20.31
Money Supply M0 63475.60
RON Million
64617 65112 65279 65307 64591
Money Supply M1 210741.70
RON Million
216481 218330 218614 218336 211714
Money Supply M2 350473.80
RON Million
357972 360367 360860 360699 355103
Money Supply M3 350580.80
RON Million
357895 360160 360589 360405 354908
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37095.50
EUR Million
37020 36957 36905 36854 36274
Banks Balance Sheet 459863.32
RON Million
468080 471212 471961 471604 457656
Lending Rate 3.00
percent
3.26 3.48 3.72 3.96 5.79
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent
8.79 9.4 9.98 10.55 14.3
Central Bank Balance Sheet 196829.80
RON Million
197318 196733 196050 195373 188099
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
0.8 0.94 1.07 1.19 1.84
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1610.10
EUR Million
-1296 -1290 -1236 -1190 -842
Exports 4493.60
EUR Million
5612 5231 5160 5229 5155
Imports 6103.70
EUR Million
6564 6393 6376 6364 6088
Current Account -527.00
EUR Million
-470 -466 -460 -98.74 -287
Current Account to GDP -2.30
percent
-0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6
External Debt 93953.90
EUR Million
93885 93695 93489 93280 90890
Remittances 862.00
EUR Million
833 889 887 916 954
Gold Reserves 103.70
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.00
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
39.04 18.3 -2.44 -23.18 14.46
Foreign Direct Investment 40.60
EUR Million
318 351 366 371 374
Crude Oil Production 72.00
BBL/D/1K
72.13 72.21 72.28 72.36 72.95
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.60
percent
36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 35
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP
-2 -2 -2 -2 -1.2
Government Budget Value -31396.80
RON Million
-20451 -16481 -13630 -11470 -5080
Government Spending 1692.90
RON Million
1639 1633 1628 1619 1588
Government Spending to GDP 34.70
percent
35.97 35.81 35.66 35.51 36.85
Government Revenues 113021.90
RON Million
50219 35155 40523 42432 41802
Government Debt 280573.00
RON Million
284269 283945 284004 283120 266640
Fiscal Expenditure 144418.70
RON Million
60144 43150 50452 52307 51479
Military Expenditure 2816.00
USD Million
2876 2921 2966 3011 3398
Asylum Applications 465.00
persons
451 525 458 452 340
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Industrial Production 12.20
percent
9.82 8.2 7.1 6.32 4.31
Industrial Production Mom 3.70
percent
0.67 0.45 0.42 0.42 0.42
Manufacturing Production 11.50
percent
8.75 7.48 6.59 6.01 4.98
Capacity Utilization 77.80
percent
77.4 78.22 78.47 78.61 78.71
Changes in Inventories 2727.80
RON Million
1130 5443 2253 6722 5932
Car Registrations 172629.00
162654 154210 149081 147020 114849
Internet Speed 16990.81
KBps
16852 16742 16631 16470 15234
IP Addresses 3664561.00
IP
3624385 3616918 3614842 3603733 3538732
Mining Production 5.10
percent
2.55 1.42 0.61 0.04 -1.25
Business Confidence 2.70
Index Points
2.23 1.37 0.71 0.2 -1.3
Competitiveness Index 4.28
Points
4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 68.00
65 65 65 65 69
Ease Of Doing Business 45.00
38 37.63 37.26 36.89 38
Electricity Production 5185.00
Gigawatt-hour
5172 5082 5077 5105 5103
Corruption Index 48.00
Points
46 46 47 47 45
Corruption Rank 57.00
58 57 56 54 55
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent
0.75 0.65 0.61 0.8 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 13.40
percent
12.39 11.77 11.26 3.9 2.9
Consumer Spending 38398.10
RON Million
39598 39916 40090 40175 39768
Consumer Credit 39516.70
RON Million
39093 38496 37887 37306 32847
Gasoline Prices 1.33
USD/Liter
1.36 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.28
Consumer Confidence -26.40
Index Points
-26.97 -27.16 -27.18 -27.19 -27.22
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output -4.10
percent
-3.26 -1.58 -0.22 0.8 3.67
Housing Index 112.44
Index Points
115 114 114 115 114
Home Ownership Rate 96.00
percent
96.72 96.85 96.97 97.1 96.4
Building Permits 2724.00
2973 3696 3933 3759 3671
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00
percent
17 17 17 17 18
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00
percent
17 17 17 17 19
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 39.95
percent
39 39 39 39 43
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.45
percent
22.79 22.79 22.79 22.79 26.6
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.50
percent
16.54 16.54 16.54 16.54 16.61
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 21.61
celsius
-0.84 13.86 18.19 3.93 8.97