This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.4 percent
Inflation Rate 4.30 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3 percent
Balance of Trade -970.90 -1670 -890 -1630 -1046 -1400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.00 36.2 35.4 35.4 35.4 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 4.08
 4.07 4.1 4.12 4.15 4.25
Stock Market 8574.88
points		 8364 8287 8211 8135 7840
Government Bond 10Y 4.85
percent		 4.88 4.94 5 5.06 5.3
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30
percent		 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.2
GDP 211.80
USD Billion		 225 245 245 245 265
GDP Constant Prices 40662.40
RON Million		 41729 41725 42208 42045 44658
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 10417.20
RON Million		 11313 11182 10813 10771 12107
GDP per capita 10932.33
USD		 11000 12000 12000 12000 13000
GDP per capita PPP 23313.20
USD		 24467 23361 23361 25063 26356
GDP From Agriculture 3095.60
RON Million		 2467 3018 3213 3201 2641
GDP From Construction 2048.50
RON Million		 2218 2226 2126 2118 2373
GDP From Manufacturing 9052.80
RON Million		 9567 9320 9397 9361 10239
GDP From Public Administration 1353.20
RON Million		 1518 1542 1405 1399 1624
GDP From Services 11503.90
RON Million		 11323 11803 11941 11895 12117
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent		 4 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.4
Employed Persons 4939.80
Thousand 		4944 4944 4943 4943 4943
Unemployed Persons 296.80
Thousand 		290 292 292 292 292
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.80
percent		 1.72 1.7 1.68 1.66 1.6
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.60
percent		 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63
Labour Costs 139.30
Index Points		 125 125 124 124 124
Job Vacancies 1.25
percent		 1.25 1.27 1.25 1.27 1.25
Wages 4482.00
RON/Month		 4100 4200 4465 4465 4800
Wages in Manufacturing 3892.00
RON/Month		 3420 3500 4259 4367 3650
Minimum Wages 407.45
EUR/Month		 407 450 450 450 500
Population 19.52
Million		 19.52 19.45 19.39 19.45 19.36
Retirement Age Women 60.92
 60.92 61.17 60.92 60.92 61.42
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Wages Low Skilled 1430.00
RON/Month		 1400 1400 1305 1328 1480
Wages High Skilled 2880.00
RON/Month		 2800 2850 2507 2578 2900
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.70
percent		 53.67 53.53 55.35 55.15 53.6
Living Wage Family 2160.00
RON/Month		 2300 2400 2163 2156 2400
Living Wage Individual 1300.00
RON/Month		 1319 1308 1302 1297 1293
Part Time Employment 595.10
Thousand		 527 554 572 554 551
Productivity 128.10
Index Points		 133 133 133 133 133
Employment Change -0.30
percent		 -0.18 -0.21 -0.27 -0.25 -0.25
Employment Rate 65.50
percent		 63.29 63.19 65.37 65.11 63.32
Full Time Employment 7911.60
Thousand		 7770 7680 7889 7943 7795
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30
percent		 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.3 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.52
Index Points		 104 104 104 104 110
Core Consumer Prices 103.18
Index Points		 104 105 105 106 114
Core Inflation Rate 2.40
percent		 2.59 2.82 3.06 3.29 5.19
Producer Prices 107.70
Index Points		 108 110 112 112 116
Producer Prices Change 5.60
percent		 4.7 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.6
CPI Transportation 100.85
Index Points		 104 104 104 104 110
Food Inflation 3.73
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.26
Index Points		 106 107 108 108 112
Inflation Rate Mom 0.52
percent		 0.3 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.28
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent		 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3
Interbank Rate 3.05
percent		 3.04 3.29 3.29 3.54 3.54
Money Supply M0 67209.40
RON Million		 68883 70602 72306 73994 88529
Money Supply M1 222538.10
RON Million		 228355 233321 238220 242769 273886
Money Supply M2 366094.80
RON Million		 374300 381702 389164 396537 460006
Money Supply M3 366261.60
RON Million		 374496 381913 389398 396795 460584
Foreign Exchange Reserves 35949.20
EUR Million		 36159 36200 36168 36166 36166
Banks Balance Sheet 479431.97
RON Million		 486298 492812 499149 505281 551608
Lending Rate 3.50
percent		 3.5 3.75 3.75 4 4
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent		 8 8 8 8 8
Central Bank Balance Sheet 186890.54
RON Million		 189139 188371 189010 188540 188742
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50
percent		 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -970.90
EUR Million		 -1670 -890 -1630 -1046 -1400
Exports 5839.40
EUR Million		 4710 6220 5490 5844 5380
Imports 6810.30
EUR Million		 6380 7110 7120 6890 6780
Current Account -619.00
EUR Million		 -620 -570 -780 -847 -370
Current Account to GDP -3.40
percent		 -3.7 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3
External Debt 97994.00
EUR Million		 98805 99470 100077 100635 104003
Remittances 808.00
EUR Million		 741 631 737 670 690
Gold Reserves 103.70
Tonnes		 104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.00
 0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million		 13.95 15.05 16.16 17.26 20.92
Crude Oil Production 70.00
BBL/D/1K		 69.97 69.97 69.97 69.97 69.97
Foreign Direct Investment 610.27
EUR Million		 391 405 404 405 405
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.00
percent		 36.2 35.4 35.4 35.4 35
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP		 -2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2
Government Budget Value -24742.80
RON Million		 -12568 -14277 -14068 -13306 -13751
Government Spending 1723.90
RON Million		 1664 1839 1789 1783 1781
Government Spending to GDP 33.40
percent		 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4
Government Revenues 93620.90
RON Million		 53880 53827 62967 59446 59381
Government Debt 291417.20
RON Million		 296070 297463 300145 301813 316623
Fiscal Expenditure 118363.70
RON Million		 65037 68104 77035 72752 73132
Military Expenditure 3975.50
USD Million		 4493 4533 4572 4611 5426
Asylum Applications 160.00
persons		 146 145 145 145 145
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Industrial Production 4.00
percent		 4 4.5 4.2 4.63 2.8
Industrial Production Mom -1.60
percent		 3.6 0.5 1.5 0.44 1
Manufacturing Production 4.30
percent		 4.9 5.6 5.2 4.49 3.6
Capacity Utilization 75.10
percent		 76.73 75.55 76.16 76.67 78.3
Changes in Inventories 7307.30
RON Million		 3289 2156 2619 2430 2484
Car Registrations 162626.00
 166001 160768 158229 160733 161077
Internet Speed 16990.81
KBps		 19782 20152 20505 20846 23439
IP Addresses 3664561.00
IP		 4050340 4101472 4152572 4209470 4701659
Mining Production -4.20
percent		 -2.59 -2.75 -2.77 -2.77 -2.77
New Orders 138.00
Index Points		 136 137 137 137 137
Business Confidence 0.90
Index Points		 1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4
Competitiveness Index 63.46
Points		 63.96 63.96 63.96 63.96 66.46
Competitiveness Rank 52.00
 52 52 52 52 52
Factory Orders 9.30
percent		 10.24 10.18 10.1 10.07 10.04
Ease Of Doing Business 52.00
 44.06 46.29 47.4 48.51 44.89
Electricity Production 4650.00
Gigawatt-hour		 5082 5389 5305 5227 5275
Corruption Index 48.00
Points		 48 48 48 48 48
Corruption Rank 59.00
 59 59 59 59 59
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent		 0.8 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 2.80
percent		 3 3.2 2.9 0.82 2.9
Consumer Spending 38468.90
RON Million		 39810 39344 39931 39777 42604
Consumer Credit 44877.45
RON Million		 46111 47143 48011 48739 51750
Consumer Confidence -20.20
Index Points		 -22 -23.2 -23.5 -23.8 -18
Gasoline Prices 1.40
USD/Liter		 1.38 1.35 1.33 1.3 1.21
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output -10.30
percent		 -8.57 -7.62 -7.83 -7.76 -7.78
Housing Index 119.66
Index Points		 120 122 124 123 130
Building Permits 4006.00
 3339 3543 3864 3696 3637
Home Ownership Rate 96.80
percent		 95.93 96.11 96.29 96.47 96.35
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent		 10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 37.25
percent		 37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.25
percent		 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 21.61
celsius		 3.93 -0.84 13.84 10.8 8.97



Romania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook