Romania | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.4 0.6 0.7 1 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1049.10 -943 -956 -947 -954 -952 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.2 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 4.01 4.1 4.14 4.26 4.22 4.87 [+]
Stock Market 8168.37 8390 8310 8050 8140 6780 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.70 3.74 3.77 3.81 3.85 4.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.70 5.2 5 4.8 4.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 177.95 184 184 189 182 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 37860.90 38270 38596 38875 39143 41345 RON Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8193.90 8429 8227 8203 8240 8255 RON Million [+]
GDP per capita 9530.66 9546 9648 9750 9785 10077 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 20483.78 20514 20739 20964 21042 21685 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2816.10 2862 2797 2701 2678 2694 RON Million [+]
GDP From Construction 2430.10 2449 2443 2447 2430 2440 RON Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8343.70 8350 8357 8354 8391 8552 RON Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1414.70 1400 1394 1395 1397 1397 RON Million [+]
GDP From Services 9537.70 9424 9411 9363 9450 9421 RON Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4824.40 4836 4816 4811 4815 4815 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 380.80 366 370 371 370 370 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.60 2.74 2.73 2.67 2.67 2.63 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.40 20.42 20.42 20.42 20.42 20.42 percent [+]
Labour Costs 126.30 111 109 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 1.31 1.28 1.3 1.28 1.3 1.28 percent [+]
Wages 3291.00 3290 3374 3457 3533 4321 RON/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2965.00 2894 2897 2902 2903 2903 RON/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 275.39 276 286 250 295 300 EUR/Month [+]
Population 19.76 19.65 19.65 19.65 19.58 19.26 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.67 60.63 60.63 60.63 61.01 61.74 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 64.87 64.42 [+]
Employment Change -1.20 -0.36 -0.25 -0.22 -0.42 -0.32 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.87 63.11 61.62 60.24 61.62 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 7601.90 7602 7711 7609 7480 7614 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.20 53.5 54.36 52.93 51.9 52.88 percent [+]
Productivity 113.50 126 127 127 127 127 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 542.10 574 577 543 540 552 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2404.80 2391 2384 2387 2386 2386 RON/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1997.20 1861 1857 1856 1856 1856 RON/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2520.00 2448 2448 2448 2448 2448 RON/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.4 0.6 0.7 1 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.85 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.88 99.92 99.95 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.10 -0.14 -0.25 -0.36 -0.48 -1.6 percent [+]
Producer Prices 113.85 117 119 121 123 140 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.80 4.2 5.1 3.9 2.8 2 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.30 2.26 2.17 2.15 2.16 2.15 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.02 99.91 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.28 0.16 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.68 99.76 99.87 99.97 100 101 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.64 0.67 0.61 0.64 0.63 0.63 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 57496.30 58613 60474 62374 64253 83810 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M1 186115.50 190989 197685 204391 210702 259961 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M2 319043.50 323129 330111 336990 343838 415038 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M3 319169.30 323222 330189 337052 343890 415093 RON Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 39252.00 39322 39359 39357 39353 39349 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 431454.45 434497 438753 442650 446367 478547 RON Million [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 196629.46 196401 197407 197843 197906 197952 RON Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 percent [+]
Lending Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1049.10 -943 -956 -947 -954 -952 EUR Million [+]
Exports 4774.60 4944 5031 4933 5196 4919 EUR Million [+]
Imports 5823.70 5697 5893 5844 5852 5852 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -617.00 -388 -463 -59.47 -451 -287 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 94085.80 94443 95014 95508 95960 99025 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 561.00 621 792 704 558 629 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 103.70 104 104 104 104 104 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 75.00 75 75 75 75 75 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 148.40 302 311 313 313 313 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 2.00 20.87 -0.21 -21.3 -12.54 15.89 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.2 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.5 -3.8 -2.3 -4.72 -0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5980.70 -9472 -9202 -8968 -9017 -9022 RON Million [+]
Government Spending 1641.60 1668 1642 1655 1647 1651 RON Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 34.70 36.32 36.15 35.97 36.11 37.68 percent [+]
Government Revenues 34780.40 64935 58336 49412 54492 53918 RON Million [+]
Government Debt 270865.80 272811 274957 281349 282659 309267 RON Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 40761.20 74607 65695 58274 63128 62305 RON Million [+]
Asylum Applications 410.00 263 291 277 282 280 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 2816.00 2710 2755 2800 2799 2606 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Industrial Production 5.50 6.79 6.55 6.51 6.51 6.51 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.50 0.65 0.43 0.4 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.50 4.73 4.5 4.53 4.6 4.62 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.60 78.22 75.87 76.47 77 78.73 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 600.00 4985 631 4954 662 4777 RON Million [+]
Car Registrations 152222.00 141022 144131 131930 144042 141034 Cars [+]
Business Confidence -0.10 -0.15 -0.27 -0.29 -0.3 -0.3 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.30 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.19 4.32 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 62.00 55 55 55 65 65 [+]
Ease Of Doing Business 36.00 36.01 35.81 35.6 35.68 35.88 [+]
Electricity Production 5804.00 5337 5526 5618 5508 5511 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 48 48 48 48 50 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 55 54 52 51 48 [+]
Mining Production 2.60 1.31 2.01 2.01 2.02 2.02 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.7 0.57 0.6 0.71 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.10 8.9 5.87 4.1 5.64 2.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 35790.60 36532 36918 37216 37626 40489 RON Million [+]
Consumer Credit 36181.96 36424 37006 37415 37741 38866 RON Million [+]
Consumer Confidence -14.50 -14.5 -14.63 -14.64 -14.65 -14.65 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -18.40 -8.81 -9.99 -9.58 -9.59 -9.54 percent [+]
Housing Index 90.09 93.23 93.11 94.32 95.66 100 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 3740.00 4433 3260 2782 3448 3317 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 96.40 96.74 96.89 97.03 97.09 95.71 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 20 19.95 19 18.29 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.95 39.48 40.22 40.95 40.92 40.83 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.45 23 23.66 24.32 24.29 24.21 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.50 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 percent [+]