Romania | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.2 5.1 5 5.1 5.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.60 1.7 1.8 2 2.1 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1018.60 -1026 -995 -963 -934 -759 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.9 36.2 36.2 36.2 35 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3.89 3.87 3.83 3.79 3.75 3.32 [+]
Stock Market 7782.80 7890 7810 7730 7650 6780 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 4.64 4.14 4.18 4.22 4.26 4.72 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 8.80 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 186.69 189 187 184 180 211 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 38485.80 39062 39214 39296 39333 38891 RON Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8708.40 8430 8290 8322 8264 7637 RON Million [+]
GDP per capita 10080.97 10400 10620 10620 10620 11170 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 21647.81 22154 22198 22242 22287 21982 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 2823.70 2701 2685 2692 2701 2700 RON Million [+]
GDP From Construction 2290.20 2231 2198 2179 2162 2055 RON Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 8508.50 8449 8420 8407 8394 8269 RON Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1404.60 1420 1430 1435 1440 1488 RON Million [+]
GDP From Services 9921.80 9907 9853 9825 9793 9559 RON Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.2 5.1 5 5.1 5.4 percent [+]
Employed Persons 4862.20 4877 4886 4896 4905 4982 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 362.10 377 386 393 401 453 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00 2.6 2.62 2.64 2.67 2.85 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80 16.03 16.14 16.28 16.43 17.42 percent [+]
Labour Costs 121.10 92.81 119 120 96.64 97.11 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 1.22 1.08 1.03 0.97 0.94 1 percent [+]
Wages 3305.00 3297 3297 3297 3295 3282 RON/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2969.00 2974 2974 2972 2971 2954 RON/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 275.39 250 302 301 308 300 EUR/Month [+]
Population 19.64 19.64 19.58 19.58 19.58 19.26 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.67 61 61 61 61 62 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 64 [+]
Productivity 121.30 154 117 120 147 150 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 673.70 572 568 587 595 627 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 56.60 53.54 53.2 54.2 54.61 54.19 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 2210.00 2190 2165 2153 2140 2157 RON/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1370.00 1314 1303 1298 1293 1308 RON/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2760.00 2150 2227 2266 2305 2177 RON/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00 1177 1221 1243 1266 1199 RON/Month [+]
Full Time Employment 7941.80 7636 7587 7631 7683 7696 Thousand [+]
Employment Change -0.60 -0.19 -0.32 -0.33 -0.3 -0.31 percent [+]
Employment Rate 65.50 61.4 61.57 64.95 64.86 62.29 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60 1.7 1.8 2 2.1 2.5 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.07 102 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.51 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.50 0.78 0.98 1.14 1.28 2.48 percent [+]
Producer Prices 114.91 121 123 123 114 140 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.30 3.9 2.8 2.8 4.26 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.28 0.95 1.4 1.75 2.03 3.01 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.92 100 101 101 101 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.52 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.4 2 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 100.23 100 100 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.93 2.45 5.36 7.37 9.3 19.01 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 61552.90 62654 63103 63245 63263 62716 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M1 199859.50 202200 202552 202285 201820 196936 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M2 332177.50 333861 334282 334107 333764 330168 RON Million [+]
Money Supply M3 332305.10 335185 335704 335557 335228 331714 RON Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37581.50 36552 36428 36361 36305 35844 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 440911.25 441478 441772 441327 440568 432188 RON Million [+]
Lending Rate 3.00 3.11 3.26 3.48 3.72 5.79 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00 8.82 9.46 10.07 10.65 14.93 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 187605.20 186839 186287 185682 185057 179850 RON Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.50 0.63 0.8 0.94 1.07 1.84 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1018.60 -1026 -995 -963 -934 -759 EUR Million [+]
Exports 5558.00 5070 5268 5237 5228 5175 EUR Million [+]
Imports 6576.60 6116 6125 6089 6065 5847 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -296.00 -59.47 -454 -450 -447 -287 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 percent [+]
External Debt 93203.80 94010 93794 93575 93356 91453 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 561.00 827 788 776 791 888 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 103.70 104 104 104 104 104 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 2.00 -23.18 -15.24 -7.29 0.64 14.46 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 371.40 375 376 373 371 369 EUR Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 75.00 75.18 75.26 75.34 75.42 76.16 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 37.60 36.9 36.2 36.2 36.2 35 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.00 -2.4 -2 -2 -2 -1.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -16238.00 -10749 -8998 -7761 -6878 -4759 RON Million [+]
Government Spending 1686.00 1631 1621 1619 1611 1582 RON Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 34.70 35.51 35.59 35.67 35.75 36.85 percent [+]
Government Revenues 78698.20 38173 37916 40575 40473 40216 RON Million [+]
Government Debt 282167.50 291817 295916 298500 300316 293496 RON Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 94936.30 45546 47397 50260 49756 49568 RON Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2816.00 3011 3061 3112 3162 3398 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 410.00 242 224 206 192 165 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Industrial Production 7.60 7.12 6.25 5.61 5.16 4.08 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.70 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.41 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.60 7.76 6.74 6.05 5.61 4.84 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.70 75.68 76.4 77.03 77.53 78.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 5623.90 7052 1047 5472 1853 5828 RON Million [+]
Car Registrations 162157.00 124541 122868 122333 120080 97993 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 16990.81 17000 16852 16742 16631 15234 KBps [+]
Mining Production 11.40 11.71 8.21 5.76 3.98 -0.59 percent [+]
Business Confidence 2.60 2.19 1.52 0.83 0.29 -1.25 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.28 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.23 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 68.00 65 65 65 65 68 [+]
Ease Of Doing Business 45.00 38.37 37.63 37.26 36.89 38 [+]
Electricity Production 4885.00 5176 5124 5087 5096 5105 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 48.00 47 47 47 47 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 57.00 54 54 54 54 55 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.6 0.66 0.63 0.61 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 12.90 4.1 10.91 10.49 10.12 2.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 36892.20 37659 37872 37961 37995 37447 RON Million [+]
Consumer Credit 39195.80 38958 38418 37792 37177 33279 RON Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.26 1.28 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.23 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Confidence -20.70 -21.54 -22.56 -23.11 -23.57 -25.79 [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output -0.60 0.8 1.72 2.38 2.87 4.14 percent [+]
Housing Index 114.27 117 119 120 120 119 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 96.00 97.1 96.92 96.74 96.56 96.4 percent [+]
Building Permits 4030.00 3681 3522 3627 3743 3711 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00 17 17 17 17 18 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 16.00 17 18 18 19 21 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 18.5 18.25 18 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.95 42.21 42.09 41.96 41.83 43.84 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.45 25.68 25.58 25.47 25.37 27.48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.50 16.55 16.57 16.58 16.59 16.69 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 1.00 2.8 5.49 14.91 12.19 4.93 celsius [+]
Precipitation 7.00 53.39 53.39 53.38 53.38 53.38 mm [+]