The National Bank of Romania left its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.5% on April 2nd 2019, as widely expected. In February 2019, annual inflation rose above expectations to a four-month high of 3.8% from 3.3% in January, outside the upper bound of the target band of 1.5-3.5%. The inflation rate is expected to remain above the upper bound of the target band in the short-term, ending 2019 at 3% (previously 2.9%). The bank also noted the deceleration in GDP growth to 4.1% in 2018 from 7% a year ago and the current account gap rising to 4.5% of GDP in 2018 from 3.2% in 2017. The deposit and lending facility rates were also kept steady at 1.5% and 3.5%, respectively. Policymakers highlighted as main risks to the outlook the fiscal policy stance and labour market; the evolution of the current account gap; oil prices; the pace of growth in the EU and in the global economy; the monetary policy stances of the ECB and of central banks of the region and the Brexit effect. Interest Rate in Romania averaged 5.49 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.50 percent in May of 2005 and a record low of 1.75 percent in May of 2015.
Interest Rate in Romania is expected to be 2.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Romania to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Romania Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.