Retail sales in Latvia increased 4 percent year-on-year in November of 2018, following a 2.4 percent rise in the previous month. It was the highest annual gain in retail trade since July, as sales advanced faster for both food products (4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in October) and non-food products (5.6 percent from 2.2 percent). Meanwhile, sales of automotive fuel declined 1.1 percent, the same as in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales went up 2.3 percent, after a 0.7 percent fall in October. Retail Sales YoY in Latvia averaged 5.80 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 60.60 percent in January of 1999 and a record low of -28.50 percent in December of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Latvia is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Latvia to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Latvia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.