Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.70 8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -405.60 -330 -210 -190 -310 -210 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 989.36
points
969 955 940 926 872
Government Bond 10y 0.55
percent
0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.30
percent
3.7 3.7 3.1 3.3 2.8
GDP 30.26
USD Billion
40 40 44 44 48
GDP Constant Prices 5997093.00
EUR Thousand
6074394 6344832 5373523 6194997 6711639
Gross National Product 7150.00
EUR Million
7175 7408 6740 7386 7837
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1486248.00
EUR Thousand
1582853 1668775 1137302 1535294 1765250
GDP per capita 15553.33
USD
15961 15961 16200 16200 16902
GDP per capita PPP 25063.85
USD
25617 25617 26141 26141 26610
Gdp From Agriculture 286036.00
EUR Thousand
288749 178355 186254 295475 188666
Gdp From Construction 346543.00
EUR Thousand
409554 387329 213648 357979 409721
Gdp From Manufacturing 730513.00
EUR Thousand
705351 722656 607468 754620 764434
Gdp From Mining 166872.00
EUR Thousand
167314 214787 239350 172379 227204
Gdp From Public Administration 335009.00
EUR Thousand
321141 469532 261869 346064 496676
Gdp From Services 817915.00
EUR Thousand
926160 901383 716809 844906 953494
Gdp From Transport 519403.00
EUR Thousand
560844 542209 547386 536543 573555
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.70
percent
8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2
Employed Persons 909.60
Thousand
916 915 914 919 927
Unemployed Persons 58051.00
57810 57481 57385 57355 57342
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.20
percent
2.86 2.81 2.9 2.8 2.69
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.50
percent
9.12 8.92 8.88 8.87 8.87
Labour Costs 112.32
Index Points
133 133 133 133 133
Job Vacancies 24078.00
24115 24853 26077 27193 31443
Wages 755.00
EUR/Month
720 790 770 747 880
Minimum Wages 430.00
EUR/Month
430 430 480 480 540
Population 1.93
Million
1.93 1.93 1.91 1.91 1.89
Retirement Age Women 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Retirement Age Men 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent
69.48 69.48 69.48 69.51 69.58
Part Time Employment 62.00
Thousand
64.13 63.01 62.48 63.1 62.76
Productivity 128.10
Index Points
132 130 113 129 128
Employment Change -0.30
percent
0.11 0.02 0.02 0 0
Employment Rate 64.40
percent
65.06 65.08 65.07 65.41 66.06
Full Time Employment 799.70
Thousand
807 807 807 809 813
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.78
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.50
Index Points
106 108 108 109 113
Core Consumer Prices 105.31
Index Points
106 105 106 108 110
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
2.03 2.1 2.15 2.19 2.28
GDP Deflator 1.21
percent
1.23 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.26
Producer Prices 120.20
Index Points
119 119 120 122 126
Producer Prices Change 5.70
percent
4.5 4.3 3.8 3.6 2.4
Export Prices 104.80
Index Points
105 105 105 106 106
Import Prices 98.60
Index Points
97.36 96.76 96.31 96.02 95.44
CPI Housing Utilities 104.20
Index Points
103 103 105 106 108
CPI Transportation 106.30
Index Points
103 106 107 110 111
Food Inflation -0.20
percent
0.7 3.2 3.77 3.31 3.8
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate 0.17
percent
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.92
Money Supply M0 8679.00
EUR Million
8521 8535 8527 8528 8528
Money Supply M1 11536.00
EUR Million
11700 11908 12172 12404 13818
Money Supply M2 13665.70
EUR Million
13782 14092 14394 14670 16419
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3839.00
USD Million
3847 3847 3849 3848 3848
Banks Balance Sheet 21645.30
EUR Million
20086 18187 16353 14997 10190
Loans To Private Sector 4941.80
EUR Million
4800 4452 4167 3932 2892
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17948.50
EUR Million
17929 17927 17923 17925 17924
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -405.60
EUR Million
-330 -210 -190 -310 -210
Exports 949.75
EUR Million
1150 1040 1250 1180 1380
Imports 1355.42
EUR Million
1480 1250 1440 1490 1590
Current Account -29.00
EUR Million
-23.79 -20.16 -21.07 -20.96 -20.99
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1.2 -1.2 -1 -1 -0.7
External Debt 35568.00
EUR Million
35381 34910 34588 34325 32562
Capital Flows 576000.00
EUR THO
473301 537372 571596 554821 554707
Gold Reserves 6.60
Tonnes
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Foreign Direct Investment 77.00
EUR Million
47.32 47.93 47.84 47.86 47.85
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10
percent
37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37
Government Budget -0.50
percent of GDP
0.7 0.7 -2.37 -2.34 0.2
Government Budget Value 209254626.00
EUR Million
117834 115605 117465 116334 116631
Government Spending 1050484.00
EUR Thousand
895183 1160721 895665 1085150 1227825
Government Spending to GDP 38.00
percent
38.24 38.7 38.62 38.54 37.98
Government Revenues 1145896.00
EUR Thousand
1033043 1024353 1027659 1026361 1026711
Government Debt 9766.10
EUR Million
9929 9836 9768 9739 9521
Fiscal Expenditure 945464.00
EUR Thousand
915209 909742 910194 910027 910080
Military Expenditure 491.61
USD Million
510 520 520 521 502
Asylum Applications 10.00
persons
23.01 23.81 24.15 24.31 24.43
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 3.90
Index Points
4.29 3.59 3.71 3.75 3.72
Industrial Production 3.60
percent
0.7 2.13 2.52 2.46 1
Industrial Production Mom 1.70
percent
0.2 0.5 0.22 0.22 0.6
Manufacturing Production 1.20
percent
1.17 0.43 0.86 0.63 0.71
Capacity Utilization 77.40
percent
76.38 76.56 76.4 76.36 76.32
Car Registrations 4945.00
4280 4367 4309 4477 4477
Internet Speed 16580.44
KBps
19012 19338 19687 20043 23524
IP Addresses 878525.00
IP
965654 980175 994696 1009217 1154419
Mining Production 11.40
percent
9.57 7.59 7.09 6.96 6.89
Changes In Inventories -48267.00
EUR Thousand
108552 -45132 1062 -34595 -21608
Competitiveness Index 4.40
Points
4.37 4.37 4.31 4.29 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 54.00
56 56 61 63 63
Ease of Doing Business 19.00
17 17 17 17 18
Electricity Production 316.00
Gigawatt-hour
514 589 557 548 555
Corruption Index 58.00
Points
59 59 59 59 59
Corruption Rank 40.00
42 41 42 43 43
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.20
Index Points
-7.72 -7.93 -7.88 -7.89 -7.89
Retail Sales MoM -0.10
percent
0.9 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.30
percent
4.5 3.8 3.3 3.4 4.2
Consumer Spending 3726501.00
EUR Thousand
3917108 3736756 3606167 3849476 3952785
Personal Savings 2.66
percent
1.73 1.38 1.08 0.78 -0.03
Consumer Credit 505.30
EUR Million
508 510 513 515 528
Bank Lending Rate 3.55
percent
3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 4.3
Economic Optimism Index 105.90
105 105 105 105 105
Gasoline Prices 1.51
USD/Liter
1.54 1.45 1.37 1.3 1.02
Households Debt To Income 37.56
percent
36.52 37.05 36.63 36.21 33.04
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 128.65
Index Points
139 141 143 144 146
Home Ownership Rate 81.50
percent
81.62 81.75 81.81 81.86 82.33
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 31.40
percent
31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 35.09
percent
35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09
Social Security Rate For Companies 24.09
percent
24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 46.46
mm
73.65 54.63 36.15 56.38 54.93
Temperature 2.26
celsius
15.21 0.42 -4.62 9.08 5.47