Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.20 8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -230.50 -330 -210 -190 -310 -210 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 1030.95
points
995 952 911 872 732
Government Bond 10y 0.55
percent
0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60
percent
0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent
3.7 3.7 3.1 3.3 2.8
GDP 30.26
USD Billion
40 40 44 44 48
GDP Constant Prices 5222004.00
EUR Thousand
6071723 6344587 5383886 5879470 6711380
Gross National Product 6537.00
EUR Million
7175 7408 6740 6944 7837
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1103106.00
EUR Thousand
1582853 1668775 1137302 1320233 1765250
GDP per capita 15553.33
USD
15961 15961 16200 16200 16902
GDP per capita PPP 25063.85
USD
25617 25617 26141 26141 26610
Gdp From Agriculture 180654.00
EUR Thousand
278622 178355 186254 261235 188666
Gdp From Construction 207224.00
EUR Thousand
409554 387329 213648 273885 409721
Gdp From Manufacturing 589203.00
EUR Thousand
705351 722656 607468 752439 764434
Gdp From Mining 232153.00
EUR Thousand
166760 216261 239350 203053 228764
Gdp From Public Administration 253995.00
EUR Thousand
321141 469532 261869 344398 496676
Gdp From Services 695256.00
EUR Thousand
935085 901383 716809 769346 953494
Gdp From Transport 530926.00
EUR Thousand
563014 542209 547385 561782 573555
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.20
percent
8.2 8.1 8 8 8.2
Employed Persons 898.00
Thousand
907 906 905 907 910
Unemployed Persons 59119.00
57810 57481 57385 57355 57342
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.20
percent
2.86 2.81 2.9 2.8 2.69
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.70
percent
10.7 10.18 10.4 10.27 10.31
Labour Costs 133.07
Index Points
133 133 133 133 133
Job Vacancies 20886.00
24115 24853 26077 27193 31443
Wages 733.00
EUR/Month
720 790 770 719 880
Minimum Wages 430.00
EUR/Month
430 430 480 457 540
Population 1.93
Million
1.93 1.93 1.91 1.91 1.89
Retirement Age Women 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Retirement Age Men 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.5 63 63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.20
percent
69.48 69.48 69.48 69.51 69.58
Part Time Employment 62.00
Thousand
64.13 63.01 62.48 63.1 62.76
Productivity 112.00
Index Points
130 129 113 126 127
Employment Change 0.90
percent
0.28 0.17 0.11 0.06 -0.01
Employment Rate 66.70
percent
68.81 69.27 70.41 71.13 73.07
Full Time Employment 799.70
Thousand
807 807 807 809 813
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
3.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.17 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12
Harmonised Consumer Prices 106.59
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.50
Index Points
106 108 108 109 113
Core Consumer Prices 105.96
Index Points
105 105 106 108 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
1.69 1.65 1.62 1.61 1.56
GDP Deflator 1.21
percent
1.22 1.2 1.23 1.22 1.23
Producer Prices 118.00
Index Points
119 117 119 121 123
Producer Prices Change 4.30
percent
4.29 2.6 2.5 2.69 2.4
Export Prices 103.90
Index Points
104 103 103 103 99.69
Import Prices 98.00
Index Points
95.01 93.89 93.09 92.55 91.43
CPI Housing Utilities 103.20
Index Points
103 103 105 106 108
CPI Transportation 107.10
Index Points
103 106 107 110 111
Food Inflation 0.20
percent
0.7 3.2 3.77 3.31 3.8
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate 0.17
percent
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.92
Money Supply M0 9729.30
EUR Million
9704 9708 9707 9708 9707
Money Supply M1 10649.80
EUR Million
10748 10776 10794 10813 10906
Money Supply M2 12774.50
EUR Million
12637 12676 12559 12634 12615
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3858.00
USD Million
3859 3859 3858 3859 3859
Banks Balance Sheet 24623.30
EUR Million
24569 24676 24574 24675 24675
Loans To Private Sector 5286.60
EUR Million
5194 5134 5085 5044 4865
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17970.80
EUR Million
18059 18060 18060 18061 18061
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -230.50
EUR Million
-330 -210 -190 -310 -210
Exports 1047.00
EUR Million
1150 1040 1250 1180 1380
Imports 1277.50
EUR Million
1480 1250 1440 1490 1590
Current Account -35.00
EUR Million
-23.79 -20.16 -21.07 -20.96 -20.99
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1.2 -1.2 -1 -1 -0.7
External Debt 35416.00
EUR Million
34928 34398 33973 33631 31412
Capital Flows 518000.00
EUR THO
336991 419215 448902 405975 419562
Gold Reserves 6.60
Tonnes
6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Foreign Direct Investment 47.00
EUR Million
47.32 47.93 47.84 47.86 47.85
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10
percent
37.6 37.6 37.2 37.2 37
Government Budget -0.50
percent of GDP
0.7 0.7 -2.37 -2.34 0.2
Government Budget Value -6723771.00
EUR Million
66054 69933 70851 70223 70357
Government Spending 868734.00
EUR Thousand
894946 1160721 895665 1046264 1227825
Government Spending to GDP 38.00
percent
38.24 38.7 38.62 38.54 37.98
Government Revenues 1006501.00
EUR Thousand
974565 969991 973439 972269 972517
Government Debt 9766.10
EUR Million
9929 9836 9768 9739 9521
Fiscal Expenditure 892335.00
EUR Thousand
908511 900478 902588 902046 902161
Military Expenditure 491.61
USD Million
510 520 520 521 502
Asylum Applications 15.00
persons
23.01 23.81 24.15 24.31 24.43
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.70
Index Points
2.53 2.62 2.51 2.6 2.57
Industrial Production -1.10
percent
-0.22 -1.3 -0.84 -0.95 1
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent
-0.07 0.5 -0.09 -0.1 0.6
Manufacturing Production 2.90
percent
2.7 2.16 2.44 2.29 2.34
Capacity Utilization 76.30
percent
76.38 76.56 76.4 76.36 76.32
Car Registrations 4211.00
4280 4367 4309 4477 4477
Internet Speed 16580.44
KBps
19012 19338 19687 20043 23524
IP Addresses 878525.00
IP
965654 980175 994696 1009217 1154419
Mining Production 7.10
percent
6.84 6.66 6.64 6.67 6.69
Changes In Inventories -14066.00
EUR Thousand
148984 -3408 29501 71759 39277
Competitiveness Index 4.40
Points
4.37 4.37 4.31 4.29 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 54.00
56 56 61 63 63
Ease of Doing Business 19.00
17 17 17 17 18
Electricity Production 439.00
Gigawatt-hour
514 589 557 548 555
Corruption Index 58.00
Points
59 59 59 59 59
Corruption Rank 40.00
42 41 42 43 43
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -6.60
Index Points
-7.34 -7.21 -7.24 -7.23 -7.23
Retail Sales MoM 3.40
percent
0.87 0.55 0.62 0.61 0.61
Retail Sales YoY 7.00
percent
7.03 7.33 7.52 7.61 7.72
Consumer Spending 3503249.00
EUR Thousand
3917194 3736756 3611850 3713280 3952785
Personal Savings 2.66
percent
1.73 1.38 1.08 0.78 -0.03
Consumer Credit 503.00
EUR Million
507 509 511 513 525
Bank Lending Rate 3.79
percent
3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 4.54
Economic Optimism Index 105.90
105 105 105 105 105
Gasoline Prices 1.47
USD/Liter
1.39 1.31 1.24 1.17 0.67
Households Debt To Income 37.56
percent
36.52 37.05 36.63 36.21 33.04
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 128.65
Index Points
139 141 143 144 146
Home Ownership Rate 81.50
percent
81.62 81.75 81.81 81.86 82.33
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 31.40
percent
31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 35.09
percent
35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09 35.09
Social Security Rate For Companies 24.09
percent
24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 46.46
mm
73.65 54.63 36.15 56.38 54.93
Temperature 2.26
celsius
15.21 0.42 -4.62 9.08 5.47