Latvia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.40 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -162.40 -187 -179 -183 -183 -183 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 0.89 [+]
Stock Market 942.56 916 907 879 888 740 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.66 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3 percent [+]
GDP 27.00 32.43 26.38 36.65 25.86 48.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 5018214.00 5399004 5018648 5398571 5019081 5395992 EUR Thousand [+]
Gross National Product 6125.00 6675 6767 7092 6487 7474 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 846592.00 1063846 1314830 1480842 901725 1446554 EUR Thousand [+]
GDP per capita 14327.90 14461 14663 14864 14923 15238 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23080.00 23111 23385 23659 23686 23930 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 156617.00 238890 248068 160039 157027 163109 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 153707.00 237879 329541 314877 164235 314192 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 595106.00 708830 682973 693339 618788 697071 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 253352.00 186315 162633 237216 252514 231063 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 249171.00 363507 307189 334930 321265 325777 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 654013.00 696254 705540 707581 708030 708156 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 572685.00 563282 578391 565362 583962 579407 EUR Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.40 9.9 9.4 9.6 10 8.7 percent [+]
Employed Persons 883.00 886 884 881 879 875 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 68439.00 65854 62018 60806 60426 60253 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.50 3.17 3.08 2.92 2.83 2.38 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.40 14.99 15.29 15.01 15.18 15.11 percent [+]
Labour Costs 131.73 134 135 135 134 134 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 15442.00 16181 16459 16717 17044 18065 [+]
Wages 675.00 622 656 670 657 677 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 380.00 370 381 380 384 410 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.97 1.96 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.80 62.86 62.86 62.86 62.98 63.25 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.80 62.41 62.41 62.41 62.61 61.97 [+]
Employment Change -1.90 -0.41 -0.5 -0.29 -0.21 -0.04 percent [+]
Employment Rate 61.60 61.75 61.79 61.73 61.71 61.77 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 774.10 776 772 764 762 756 Thousand [+]
Productivity 112.10 120 126 129 115 129 Index Points [+]
Part Time Employment 82.20 77.64 78.88 80.42 78.97 80 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.00 68.1 68.1 68.05 68.05 68.05 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.32 0.26 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.39 104 104 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.40 103 104 104 104 106 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.41 103 104 104 105 108 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.55 1.61 1.57 1.55 1.49 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.19 percent [+]
Producer Prices 112.60 115 117 119 121 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.90 3.6 5.2 4.2 3.4 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 116.60 117 117 117 117 117 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.80 113 112 112 112 112 Index Points [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 98.80 98.7 98.59 98.55 98.54 98.53 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 100.30 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.10 4.96 4.66 4.51 4.44 4.36 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8254.90 8356 8336 8342 8341 8341 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10441.30 10533 10698 10850 10984 11741 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12473.20 12564 12722 12868 12997 13755 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3321.07 3299 3324 3313 3317 3316 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 29117.60 29092 29026 29033 29027 29028 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 15133.50 15265 15244 15240 15242 15242 EUR Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5741.90 5766 5792 5814 5833 5917 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -162.40 -187 -179 -183 -183 -183 EUR Million [+]
Exports 859.56 845 874 843 857 856 EUR Million [+]
Imports 1021.92 1059 1037 1041 1051 1050 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 58.90 101 89.41 85.73 86.47 87.6 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.50 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 37244.91 37429 37291 37629 37499 37841 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 243880.00 189546 211222 245608 213924 222837 EUR THO [+]
Gold Reserves 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -51.94 29 21.44 21.21 21.28 21.29 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.11 39.66 41.21 41.99 42.84 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 -1.2 0.15 -0.9 0.22 0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 62837209.00 -5609357 -117216 -120854 -120852 -120852 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 841721.00 1026215 841953 1025984 842184 1024608 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Spending to GDP 36.30 36.56 36.5 36.43 36.52 36.76 percent [+]
Government Revenues 887394.00 862154 847320 847869 848116 848050 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt 10038.30 10337 10601 10730 10829 11440 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 808075.00 837619 828464 828886 828824 828838 EUR Thousand [+]
Asylum Applications 50.00 43.71 40.49 38.95 38.29 37.8 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 405.90 391 433 475 480 480 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.30 2.08 1.61 2.02 1.7 1.85 [+]
Industrial Production 9.60 2.2 9.81 1.5 9.66 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 2.5 0.64 0.7 0.75 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.20 6.6 6.03 6.47 6.23 6.31 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.80 74.25 75.1 75.05 74.92 74.84 percent [+]
Car Registrations 4088.00 4582 4238 4323 4295 4568 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 91627.00 140802 -51628 41471 70393 61113 EUR Thousand [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.45 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.4 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 49.00 47 47 47 51 51 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 16 15 14 14 14 [+]
Electricity Production 752.00 502 435 504 502 493 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 57.00 58 58 59 59 61 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 44.00 43 43 44 44 44 [+]
Mining Production 20.70 8.07 7.55 6.97 6.67 6.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -11.40 -11.85 -11.4 -11.85 -11.4 -11.85 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 0.37 0.31 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 2.64 2.87 2.98 3.04 3.1 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3363202.00 3687208 3776678 3514433 3480549 3627532 EUR Thousand [+]
Personal Savings -2.19 -2.41 -3.36 -4.3 -4.26 -3.51 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 485.10 484 485 486 486 489 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.48 3.57 3.57 3.55 3.54 3.54 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 105.90 106 106 106 107 107 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 40.96 39.06 37.88 36.69 36.13 29.25 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 139.67 140 140 140 140 140 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 80.90 79.48 79.18 78.89 78.61 75.73 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00 23.42 23.27 23.12 23.13 23.12 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.04 21.04 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 34.09 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 percent [+]