Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.10 8.6 8.2 8.1 8 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -253.80 -350 -330 -210 -190 -210 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.2 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 1046.66
points
1006 970 935 901 779
Government Bond 10y 0.55
percent
0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70
percent
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30
percent
3.6 3.2 3.3 3.5 3
GDP 27.68
USD Billion
28.2 29.5 40.58 44.14 48.65
GDP Constant Prices 6118213.00
EUR Thousand
5793977 6056819 6320114 5181834 6718028
Gross National Product 7144.00
EUR Million
6843 7158 7380 6339 7844
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1609233.00
EUR Thousand
1301036 1578968 1662338 933162 1766998
GDP per capita 14714.67
USD
14990 14990 14990 15120 15570
GDP per capita PPP 23712.09
USD
23761 23840 23918 24101 24130
Gdp From Agriculture 171991.00
EUR Thousand
257437 277938 177667 162105 188853
Gdp From Construction 373509.00
EUR Thousand
269903 408549 385835 159093 410127
Gdp From Manufacturing 696872.00
EUR Thousand
741498 703619 719869 615959 765192
Gdp From Mining 208545.00
EUR Thousand
200100 166351 215427 262230 228990
Gdp From Public Administration 452779.00
EUR Thousand
339391 320353 467721 257902 497168
Gdp From Services 869222.00
EUR Thousand
758159 932790 897906 676931 954439
Gdp From Transport 522863.00
EUR Thousand
553614 561632 540117 592753 574123
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.10
percent
8.6 8.2 8.1 8 8.2
Employed Persons 902.00
Thousand
900 899 900 899 900
Unemployed Persons 61882.00
68972 69548 67853 66020 67333
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.60
percent
3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
Youth Unemployment Rate 15.20
percent
17.34 17.18 17.08 17.03 16.96
Labour Costs 132.25
Index Points
130 129 130 129 130
Job Vacancies 17271.00
17271 17057 17270 17058 17269
Wages 738.00
EUR/Month
740 720 790 770 880
Minimum Wages 430.00
EUR/Month
430 430 430 480 540
Population 1.95
Million
1.93 1.93 1.95 1.95 1.95
Retirement Age Women 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.25 63.5 63.75
Retirement Age Men 63.25
63.25 63.25 63.25 63.5 63.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.30
percent
69.1 69.03 68.95 68.88 68.2
Part Time Employment 66.10
Thousand
67.68 68.44 68.61 69.08 72.57
Productivity 129.70
Index Points
130 130 130 130 130
Employment Change 0.90
percent
0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
Employment Rate 63.70
percent
64.06 64.43 64.49 64.51 65.02
Full Time Employment 799.00
Thousand
807 810 812 814 827
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Harmonised Consumer Prices 105.35
Index Points
106 105 106 107 111
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.50
Index Points
106 105 106 107 111
Core Consumer Prices 104.97
Index Points
106 105 105 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
1.8 1.61 1.65 1.69 1.66
GDP Deflator 1.18
percent
1.17 1.18 1.17 1.18 1.18
Producer Prices 115.90
Index Points
117 118 117 119 123
Producer Prices Change 3.50
percent
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4
Export Prices 103.20
Index Points
115 117 116 116 116
Import Prices 97.20
Index Points
113 114 112 112 112
CPI Housing Utilities 101.80
Index Points
101 101 102 103 107
CPI Transportation 103.10
Index Points
102 102 105 106 110
Food Inflation 0.30
percent
0.8 0.7 3.2 3.77 3.8
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate 0.17
percent
0.17 0.17 0.42 0.42 0.92
Money Supply M0 10128.20
EUR Million
9097 9011 8973 8956 8942
Money Supply M1 10838.40
EUR Million
11331 11550 11745 11917 12898
Money Supply M2 12879.90
EUR Million
13358 13411 13532 13503 13597
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3890.00
USD Million
3721 3668 3633 3610 3563
Banks Balance Sheet 27245.50
EUR Million
27149 27081 26996 26961 26896
Loans To Private Sector 5379.40
EUR Million
5287 5239 5199 5166 5020
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17879.10
EUR Million
18726 19355 19981 20597 26839
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -253.80
EUR Million
-350 -330 -210 -190 -210
Exports 966.24
EUR Million
1010 1150 1040 1250 1380
Imports 1220.00
EUR Million
1360 1480 1250 1440 1590
Current Account -88.00
EUR Million
52.03 40.09 29.25 19.76 -35.81
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1 -0.7
External Debt 37824.00
EUR Million
37600 37599 37599 37599 37599
Capital Flows 122000.00
EUR THO
87224 29524 70060 41582 53575
Gold Reserves 6.60
Tonnes
6.62 6.64 6.67 6.69 6.91
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Foreign Direct Investment 45.00
EUR Million
53.39 60.33 63.22 61.52 62.34
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10
percent
37.6 37.6 37.6 37.2 37
Government Budget -0.50
percent of GDP
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.22 0.2
Government Budget Value 239255.00
EUR Million
-169997 100351 -29369 23966 -1594
Government Spending 1119307.00
EUR Thousand
1031051 892749 1156244 859111 1229041
Government Spending to GDP 38.00
percent
36.56 36.5 36.43 36.52 36.63
Government Revenues 995188.00
EUR Thousand
881936 893468 888562 882890 888296
Government Debt 10782.30
EUR Million
10189 10189 10189 10189 10189
Fiscal Expenditure 983150.00
EUR Thousand
1051933 793118 945798 858923 889890
Military Expenditure 491.61
USD Million
391 433 475 480 471
Asylum Applications 20.00
persons
15.17 24.9 28.95 27.35 23.09
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 3.40
Index Points
1.36 1.89 1.84 1.75 1.82
Industrial Production 0.60
percent
8.76 6.98 7.48 8.38 1
Industrial Production Mom -3.60
percent
1.24 0.78 0.5 -0.04 0.6
Manufacturing Production 1.50
percent
8.72 8.72 8.72 8.72 8.72
Capacity Utilization 76.30
percent
74.01 75.15 74.43 74.88 74.7
Car Registrations 4211.00
4294 4314 4308 4310 4309
Internet Speed 16580.44
KBps
18651 19012 19338 19687 23524
IP Addresses 878525.00
IP
951133 965654 980175 994696 1154419
Mining Production -5.90
percent
8.29 7.47 7.24 7.18 7.15
Changes In Inventories -19303.00
EUR Thousand
74664 150458 106406 132010 122575
Competitiveness Index 4.40
Points
4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42
Competitiveness Rank 54.00
51 51 51 51 51
Ease of Doing Business 19.00
19 19 19 19 19
Electricity Production 741.00
Gigawatt-hour
645 637 634 633 632
Corruption Index 58.00
Points
58 58 58 58 58
Corruption Rank 40.00
40 40 40 40 40
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.60
Index Points
-9.61 -9.49 -9.54 -9.52 -9.53
Retail Sales MoM 2.30
percent
0.07 0.28 0.23 0.24 0.24
Retail Sales YoY 6.50
percent
3.65 4.93 4.98 4.42 4.59
Consumer Spending 3603429.00
EUR Thousand
3659286 3907579 3722342 3470486 3956701
Personal Savings 2.66
percent
2.18 1.88 1.59 1.38 0.35
Consumer Credit 492.80
EUR Million
488 487 486 486 480
Bank Lending Rate 3.67
percent
3.78 3.86 3.92 3.98 4.46
Economic Optimism Index 105.80
108 107 106 106 106
Gasoline Prices 1.48
USD/Liter
1.3 1.23 1.16 1.09 0.76
Households Debt To Income 37.56
percent
35.9 35.79 35.68 35.49 39.78
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 119.90
Index Points
120 120 120 120 120
Home Ownership Rate 81.50
percent
81.5 81.5 81.5 81.5 81.5
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 16 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 34.09
percent
34.09 34.09 34.09 34 34
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59
percent
23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59 23.59
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50
percent
10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 46.46
mm
50.58 73.65 54.63 36.15 54.93
Temperature 2.26
celsius
10.42 15.21 0.42 -4.62 5.47