Latvia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 8.90 9 9.3 9 8.8 8.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.90 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -328.80 -312 -306 -300 -294 -253 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.1 37.6 37.6 37.6 37 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 1022.49 986 976 966 956 846 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.63 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.3 3 percent [+]
GDP 27.68 36.65 29.37 29.05 28.72 48.65 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 5673529.00 5851530 5219594 5593262 5435811 5625763 EUR Thousand [+]
Gross National Product 6722.00 6676 6439 6561 6465 6445 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1302666.00 1366613 1086532 1189931 1251166 1206580 EUR Thousand [+]
GDP per capita 14714.67 14800 14990 14990 14990 15570 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23712.09 23697 23575 23453 23331 22199 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 252880.00 158547 157179 249328 248424 161045 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 265125.00 298027 191777 246359 317433 291219 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 728373.00 687708 633226 684471 676670 669041 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 196558.00 228864 250554 196285 160780 209286 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 333383.00 440603 253489 334102 303134 420363 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 744739.00 767590 699984 733172 785195 754039 EUR Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 543814.00 541052 553581 544787 549860 538700 EUR Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.90 9 9.3 9 8.8 8.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 892.00 896 900 903 905 929 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 61461.00 59947 61552 64440 67675 86604 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.94 4.12 4.27 4.47 5.54 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90 13.62 13.17 13.64 14.14 16.58 percent [+]
Labour Costs 128.88 128 127 125 124 112 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 17261.00 17359 16717 15780 14590 5409 [+]
Wages 691.00 670 681 680 680 677 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 380.00 380 381 383 382 410 EUR/Month [+]
Population 1.95 1.95 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.91 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.80 62.81 62.85 62.88 62.9 62.85 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.80 62.74 62.82 62.87 62.91 62.91 [+]
Employment Change -0.70 -0.16 -0.1 -0.07 -0.06 -0.04 percent [+]
Employment Rate 62.60 62.06 61.67 61.36 60.75 57.14 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 782.60 794 799 803 805 823 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 66.30 73.52 72.83 73.65 73.7 76.16 Thousand [+]
Productivity 126.70 126 115 125 121 124 Index Points [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.60 68.23 68.2 68.12 68.04 67.44 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.90 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.17 0.26 0.33 0.37 0.45 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.07 103 103 103 102 101 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.90 103 103 103 103 102 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.69 104 104 104 104 103 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.77 1.9 2.04 2.17 3.16 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.18 percent [+]
Producer Prices 113.70 119 121 121 114 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.30 4.2 3.4 3.4 4.5 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 117.70 119 119 119 119 117 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.30 112 111 111 111 110 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 99.20 99.16 99 98.81 98.59 96.65 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 99.70 99.74 99.57 99.41 99.25 97.86 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 5.50 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.4 3.8 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.17 0.44 0.78 1.08 1.35 2.81 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8477.50 8464 8438 8411 8384 8146 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M1 10305.60 10335 10328 10309 10286 10069 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12278.90 12278 12284 12272 12253 12046 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3505.00 3466 3439 3412 3386 3180 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 28736.90 28953 29056 29146 29216 29461 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 15053.00 14958 14916 14872 14828 14447 EUR Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5714.70 5769 5806 5842 5879 6154 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -328.80 -312 -306 -300 -294 -253 EUR Million [+]
Exports 958.27 934 936 930 926 886 EUR Million [+]
Imports 1287.14 1253 1245 1239 1233 1183 EUR Million [+]
Current Account -56.00 -91.99 -93.63 -92.34 -91.08 -84.61 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.50 -1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 percent [+]
External Debt 37424.00 37550 37561 37524 37477 36282 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 190000.00 145176 116275 95543 75380 -12335 EUR THO [+]
Gold Reserves 6.62 6.67 6.7 6.73 6.76 6.96 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 42.00 51.07 51.51 50.4 50.19 49.85 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.25 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 38.1 37.6 37.6 37.6 37 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.00 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 63059455.00 -8997473 -8269304 -5798665 -3573540 934206 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 1027065.00 1075220 850730 1025608 843930 1024524 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Spending to GDP 36.30 35.99 35.99 35.98 35.98 35.95 percent [+]
Government Revenues 839656.00 840478 830498 821782 810173 741445 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt 9894.90 9953 9933 9914 9831 9076 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 765467.00 764818 749659 736588 723569 674665 EUR Thousand [+]
Asylum Applications 35.00 24.58 22.54 21.25 20.41 18.92 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 405.90 463 461 459 458 396 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.20 0.38 -0.16 -0.76 -1.3 -5.1 [+]
Industrial Production 12.10 1.5 8.54 7.59 6.86 1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.20 0.7 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 12.10 8.94 7.14 5.81 4.94 3.48 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.50 74.28 73.88 73.46 73.05 69.78 percent [+]
Car Registrations 4630.00 4856 4713 4673 4460 3417 Cars [+]
Changes In Inventories 156300.00 45512 66767 122857 40470 74201 EUR Thousand [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.40 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.23 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 54.00 56 56 56 56 66 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 16 16 16 17 21 [+]
Electricity Production 405.00 518 495 487 493 492 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 57.00 57 57 56 56 54 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 44.00 49 50 51 53 62 [+]
Mining Production 20.40 8.62 7.58 7.15 7 6.93 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -7.70 -8.7 -9.57 -10.42 -11.19 -16.09 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.38 0.4 0.37 0.37 0.37 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.30 6.71 7.35 7.77 8.06 8.71 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 3695749.00 3557151 3463327 3562291 3599218 3533955 EUR Thousand [+]
Personal Savings -2.19 -0.47 -0.15 0.17 0.49 0.72 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 505.80 512 513 513 513 508 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.21 3.63 3.68 3.76 3.82 4.29 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 107.40 107 107 106 106 103 [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.33 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.4 1.33 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Income 40.96 36.93 36.21 35.5 34.78 34.94 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 119.99 123 122 119 116 100 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 80.90 81.22 81.29 81.36 81.43 81.95 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53 16.69 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 23.00 23.57 23.62 23.68 23.73 24.1 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 20.77 20.77 20.77 20.77 20.34 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 34.09 33.9 33.86 33.82 33.78 33.52 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59 23.67 23.69 23.71 23.72 23.86 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50 10.23 10.17 10.11 10.05 9.66 percent [+]