Latvia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Latvia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Latvia economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.50 9.3 9 8.8 8.7 8.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -238.10 -189 -186 -184 -182 -163 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 40.10 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.24
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 1031.92
points
990 956 924 893 680
Government Bond 10y 0.55
percent
0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.55
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent
3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3
GDP 27.68
USD Billion
25.8 27.1 28.4 40.58 48.65
GDP Constant Prices 5961319.00
EUR Thousand
5293268 5581555 5770421 5928384 5713263
Gross National Product 7045.00
EUR Million
6835 6796 6814 6863 6746
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1554072.00
EUR Thousand
1148067 1209233 1386211 1401462 1258717
GDP per capita 14714.67
USD
14990 14990 14990 14990 15570
GDP per capita PPP 23712.09
USD
23412 23507 23602 23697 21603
Gdp From Agriculture 273556.00
EUR Thousand
153207 251708 270728 167271 173427
Gdp From Construction 402107.00
EUR Thousand
185621 251896 373348 325314 318878
Gdp From Manufacturing 692525.00
EUR Thousand
635837 685158 682436 688148 672853
Gdp From Mining 163728.00
EUR Thousand
250108 196492 164945 222303 206273
Gdp From Public Administration 315302.00
EUR Thousand
253653 334043 312477 433699 414754
Gdp From Services 918082.00
EUR Thousand
698876 744630 855158 827678 796928
Gdp From Transport 552777.00
EUR Thousand
552624 544372 549025 542212 535272
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.50
percent
9.3 9 8.8 8.7 8.2
Employed Persons 903.00
Thousand
909 913 916 919 949
Unemployed Persons 65136.00
68323 72250 75427 78061 91236
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
3.67 3.82 4.02 4.2 5.57
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.20
percent
14.78 15.15 15.35 15.71 18.17
Labour Costs 128.26
Index Points
125 123 122 120 106
Job Vacancies 17062.00
15356 14203 12835 11441 4697
Wages 669.00
EUR/Month
671 671 670 672 677
Minimum Wages 430.00
EUR/Month
430 430 430 430 540
Population 1.95
Million
1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.91
Retirement Age Women 62.80
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Men 62.80
63 63 63 63 63
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.50
percent
69.02 69 68.92 68.84 68.09
Part Time Employment 69.00
Thousand
69.28 69.44 69.97 70.29 73.89
Productivity 131.40
Index Points
116 124 128 128 126
Employment Change 0.50
percent
0.03 0 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03
Employment Rate 63.60
percent
62.93 62.72 62.29 61.61 57.78
Full Time Employment 799.10
Thousand
807 810 813 815 828
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.12 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.49
Index Points
103 103 103 103 102
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.70
Index Points
104 104 103 103 102
Core Consumer Prices 103.11
Index Points
103 103 103 103 102
Core Inflation Rate 1.40
percent
1.38 1.49 1.63 1.77 3.12
GDP Deflator 1.19
percent
1.19 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.16
Producer Prices 114.10
Index Points
121 121 114 124 134
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
3.4 3.4 3.39 2.6 2.4
Export Prices 117.80
Index Points
118 118 118 117 116
Import Prices 113.60
Index Points
114 114 114 114 112
CPI Housing Utilities 101.20
Index Points
102 103 103 103 100
CPI Transportation 103.30
Index Points
103 103 103 103 101
Food Inflation 1.90
percent
4.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.8
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate 0.17
percent
0.28 0.66 0.96 1.23 2.97
Money Supply M0 9928.90
EUR Million
10026 10017 9990 9963 9649
Money Supply M1 10762.80
EUR Million
10980 11030 11029 11011 10722
Money Supply M2 12728.50
EUR Million
13024 13144 13183 13187 12897
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3721.00
USD Million
3679 3655 3622 3592 3280
Banks Balance Sheet 28274.50
EUR Million
28741 28918 29000 29087 29400
Loans To Private Sector 5398.00
EUR Million
5368 5348 5342 5348 5812
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17248.60
EUR Million
17490 17464 17425 17382 16874
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -238.10
EUR Million
-189 -186 -184 -182 -163
Exports 951.86
EUR Million
992 969 969 964 910
Imports 1190.01
EUR Million
1191 1186 1180 1174 1108
Current Account -37.00
EUR Million
2.74 -7.43 -14.85 -20.58 -54.67
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7
External Debt 37552.00
EUR Million
37690 37687 37658 37596 35895
Capital Flows -152000.00
EUR THO
-89055 -98404 -86168 -79403 -46588
Gold Reserves 6.62
Tonnes
6.64 6.67 6.69 6.72 6.89
Terrorism Index 0.00
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.24
Foreign Direct Investment 77.00
EUR Million
61.64 55.77 53.71 52.41 51.1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 40.10
percent
37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37
Government Budget 0.00
percent of GDP
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2
Government Budget Value -250375920.00
EUR Million
-82920374 186501812 85097382 -162866391 -16129086
Government Spending 878673.00
EUR Thousand
846840 1008539 870466 1047424 1004609
Government Spending to GDP 36.30
percent
36.15 36.1 36.04 35.99 35.9
Government Revenues 964018.00
EUR Thousand
841955 863161 841858 836050 742843
Government Debt 10077.60
EUR Million
10102 9986 9944 9878 9184
Fiscal Expenditure 1302285.00
EUR Thousand
986810 963071 915752 882097 700999
Military Expenditure 405.90
USD Million
343 383 423 463 360
Asylum Applications 15.00
persons
16.94 17.42 17.69 17.86 18.12
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence -3.00
Index Points
-2.46 -3.2 -3.59 -4.02 -6.69
Industrial Production 5.50
percent
4.57 4.47 4.46 4.46 1
Industrial Production Mom 1.30
percent
0.43 0.35 0.34 0.5 0.6
Manufacturing Production 9.10
percent
6.39 5.4 4.66 4.17 3.4
Capacity Utilization 75.80
percent
73.85 75.13 74.91 74.63 70.3
Car Registrations 4152.00
3785 3754 3515 3506 3311
Internet Speed 16580.44
KBps
15752 15631 15472 15305 13832
IP Addresses 878525.00
IP
926123 940820 953225 952594 949886
Mining Production 24.30
percent
11.1 8.29 7.47 7.24 7.15
Changes In Inventories 249882.00
EUR Thousand
85634 104589 165683 117367 86887
Competitiveness Index 4.40
Points
4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.22
Competitiveness Rank 54.00
56 56 56 56 63
Ease of Doing Business 19.00
18 19 20 20 23
Electricity Production 741.00
Gigawatt-hour
455 477 509 498 497
Corruption Index 57.00
Points
55 55 56 57 54
Corruption Rank 44.00
45 46 48 49 62
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -9.50
Index Points
-10.15 -11 -11.73 -12.43 -17.69
Retail Sales MoM 0.20
percent
0.44 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37
Retail Sales YoY 6.40
percent
7.36 7.93 8.23 8.4 8.74
Consumer Spending 3845967.00
EUR Thousand
3513505 3534917 3667691 3650147 3565528
Personal Savings 2.66
percent
2.48 2.18 1.88 1.59 0.35
Consumer Credit 490.50
EUR Million
480 476 474 474 475
Bank Lending Rate 3.97
percent
3.9 3.93 4.01 4.07 4.57
Economic Optimism Index 108.40
108 107 107 107 104
Gasoline Prices 1.51
USD/Liter
1.63 1.69 1.7 1.69 1.58
Households Debt To Income 37.56
percent
36.47 35.98 35.49 34.99 38.36
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 120.49
Index Points
119 116 113 109 104
Home Ownership Rate 81.50
percent
81.36 81.49 81.62 81.75 82.33
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
16 16 16 16 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
21 21 21 21 20
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 20
Social Security Rate 34.09
percent
34 34 34 34 34
Social Security Rate For Companies 23.59
percent
23.64 23.64 23.64 23.64 23.73
Social Security Rate For Employees 10.50
percent
10.33 10.33 10.33 10.33 10.07
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 46.46
mm
36.08 50.58 73.65 54.63 54.93
Temperature 2.26
celsius
-4.61 10.42 15.21 0.42 5.47