The economy of Ecuador grew 0.8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, easing from an upwardly revised 1.5 percent expansion in the previous period. It was the weakest growth rate since the last quarter of 2016, mainly due to a contraction in petroleum refining (-6 percent vs 0.5 percent in Q3); construction (-0.5 percent vs 1.2 percent); and utilities (-3.1 percent vs 3.4 percent). Also, output growth slowed in agriculture (1.3 percent vs 1.9 percent); shrimp fishery (5.8 percent vs 7.4 percent); trade (1.2 percent vs 2.8 percent); food & accommodation services (0.1 percent vs 3.2 percent); and professional activities (1 percent vs 1.3 percent). Additionally, manufacturing activities showed no growth, after expanding 0.8 percent in the third quarter of the year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador averaged 3.80 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.20 percent in the second quarter of 2004 and a record low of -3.40 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador is expected to be 0.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ecuador to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.