Ecuador | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate -0.03 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.19 7.4 7.3 7.5 10.5 10 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -396757.00 -122233 -53864 -29200 -22334 -20992 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 39.60 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.5 49.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Stock Market 1239.87 1220 1210 1190 1180 1050 points [+]
Currency 93.33 95.03 95.97 96.91 97.85 108 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.2 percent [+]
GDP 97.80 97.1 96.52 95.95 95.37 88.1 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17815075.00 18092870 18193688 18268732 18323158 18324696 USD THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3925990.00 3856493 3839622 3827468 3817615 3748093 USD THO [+]
GDP per capita 5210.10 5390 5112 5089 5065 5500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10462.40 10750 10222 10168 10113 11590 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 1379564.00 1391527 1394074 1394619 1394172 1381865 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 1500086.00 1478989 1467631 1458910 1450044 1391340 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 2068539.00 2065713 2063233 2060699 2058111 2032632 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 1694871.00 1699617 1694455 1688320 1680479 1629563 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 1169954.00 1183817 1164262 1169358 1160978 1149452 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 1124178.00 1106749 1108182 1108425 1107618 1097067 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 1250831.00 1286360 1300295 1312113 1321777 1346780 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Utilities 552772.00 561086 566872 566460 567133 552284 USD Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 percent [+]
Wages 478.00 498 501 504 507 600 USD/Month [+]
Population 16.53 16.75 16.8 16.85 16.91 17.32 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70 65.77 65.8 65.81 65.85 66 percent [+]
Employment Rate 94.22 94.17 94.21 94.06 94.07 93.83 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate -0.03 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.26 106 106 106 104 108 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 100.64 100 103 103 99.85 98.63 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.15 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.15 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Food Inflation -0.12 0.76 2.24 3.52 4.36 4.9 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 113.61 114 114 114 114 113 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 106.29 106 106 106 106 105 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.19 7.4 7.3 7.5 10.5 10 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.03 1.23 1.07 1.06 1.09 1.44 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 22992.93 23008 22980 22943 22904 22552 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 47775.11 47990 47992 47934 47848 46890 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2362.38 2644 2665 2702 2734 2892 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 13830.10 13894 13881 13853 13821 13536 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.80 6.29 6.58 6.88 7.17 10.08 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -396757.00 -122233 -53864 -29200 -22334 -20992 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 1459047.00 1460535 1441280 1424724 1409577 1289437 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 1855804.00 1769995 1762766 1750876 1738482 1633949 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account 59.23 -40.65 7.77 9.3 -9.5 -30.68 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.50 -0.2 -0.61 -1.01 -1.42 -1.25 percent [+]
Capital Flows 616.69 75.78 -72.93 -16.45 -31.26 -31.62 USD Million [+]
Remittances 698.89 691 678 676 675 654 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 11.79 12.58 12.97 13.35 13.72 16.4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 537.00 534 532 529 527 508 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 175.13 187 160 156 152 150 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.79 1.07 1.15 1.22 1.29 1.64 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 39.60 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.5 49.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.00 -2.55 -2.28 -2.01 -1.74 -1.18 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -198.34 -192 -162 -149 -142 -135 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2635491.00 2641333 2633476 2630302 2623953 2571282 USD THO [+]
Government Revenues 1299.77 1377 1348 1323 1304 1176 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1498.11 1702 1635 1614 1584 1387 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2130.30 1717 1620 1523 1426 597 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 1219.60 1240 1248 1251 1251 1208 [+]
Industrial Production -3.73 3.37 3.6 3.76 3.88 4.16 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 341527.00 318111 301202 268689 234682 170241 USD THO [+]
Leading Economic Index 102.99 103 103 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Ease of Doing Business 114.00 118 120 121 123 129 [+]
Corruption Index 31.00 28 28 27 26 24 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 120.00 123 123 123 123 118 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.91 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.88 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 97.00 92 92 92 92 95 [+]
Steel Production 50.00 48.52 48.09 47.73 47.36 44.25 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 39.00 39.73 39.73 39.76 39.81 40.04 [+]
Consumer Spending 10797218.00 10750437 10730264 10710709 10691485 10523102 USD THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 23346.54 24340 24684 24855 24920 24326 USD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 18801.40 19479 19727 19845 19882 19335 USD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 25.01 25.42 25.84 26.26 27.1 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 34.02 33.81 33.59 33.38 31.74 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 12.03 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.60 21.96 21.93 21.9 21.88 21.87 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15 11.97 11.98 11.99 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45 9.98 9.94 9.91 9.87 9.87 percent [+]