Ecuador - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.8 5.8 5.9 6 6.2 percent
Inflation Rate -0.09 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 7.72 8 8 8 8 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -23290.00 -8774 -15261 -19959 -21763 -22305 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 39.60 37.47 39.75 42.02 44.3 50.3 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Stock Market 1238.71
points
1213 1182 1152 1122 912
Currency 89.19
92.94 93.86 94.78 95.7 98
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 0.9 1 1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.80
percent
1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6
GDP 97.80
USD Billion
98.75 98.2 97.65 97.1 84.5
GDP Constant Prices 17892782.00
USD THO
18124541 18199524 18254394 18292356 18158467
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3892629.00
USD THO
3867006 3857595 3848933 3840650 3750294
GDP per capita 5210.10
USD
5283 5234 5185 5410 5500
GDP per capita PPP 10462.40
USD
10573 10474 10376 10941 11590
Gdp From Agriculture 1357465.00
USD Thousand
1356118 1353626 1351666 1350010 1328551
Gdp From Construction 1472488.00
USD Thousand
1429896 1414255 1401368 1390787 1330758
Gdp From Manufacturing 2065656.00
USD Thousand
2071051 2071544 2071071 2069872 2037371
Gdp From Mining 1692634.00
USD Thousand
1693323 1687129 1679473 1672033 1605853
Gdp From Public Administration 1172583.00
USD Thousand
1172950 1172920 1171245 1170034 1149535
Gdp From Services 1151905.00
USD Thousand
1163024 1161489 1159327 1157232 1137532
Gdp From Transport 1266533.00
USD Thousand
1281618 1285520 1288014 1289091 1267802
Gdp From Utilities 525229.00
USD Thousand
531379 528485 528618 526139 503965
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent
5.8 5.8 5.9 6 6.2
Wages 426.92
USD/Month
428 431 433 435 412
Population 16.53
Million
16.57 16.63 16.69 16.75 17.47
Wages In Manufacturing 440.00
USD/Month
436 435 434 433 423
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.90
percent
65.93 65.91 65.96 65.96 66.13
Minimum Wages 375.00
USD/Month
375 375 375 375 390
Employment Rate 94.18
percent
94.32 94.05 94.13 93.98 93.81
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate -0.09
percent
0.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.20
Index Points
105 105 106 106 107
Producer Prices 103.50
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Producer Prices Change 1.29
percent
0.5 1.1 1.6 2 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.19
percent
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Food Inflation -0.70
percent
-0.34 0.6 1.5 3 3.5
CPI Housing Utilities 114.16
Index Points
114 115 115 115 114
CPI Transportation 106.05
Index Points
106 106 106 106 105
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.72
percent
8 8 8 8 7.5
Interbank Rate 0.80
percent
1.15 0.96 0.94 0.97 1.41
Money Supply M1 23953.68
USD Million
24307 24218 24164 24122 23672
Money Supply M2 49779.24
USD Million
50550 50753 50813 50786 49598
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5706.59
USD Million
4903 4822 4591 4381 3243
Loans to Private Sector 14313.30
USD Million
14484 14492 14469 14438 14046
Deposit Interest Rate 4.80
percent
5.98 6.08 6.19 6.29 11.16
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -23290.00
USD Thousand
-8774 -15261 -19959 -21763 -22305
Exports 1762406.00
USD Thousand
1743157 1719477 1700348 1682749 1495024
Imports 1785696.00
USD Thousand
1804743 1796105 1783545 1771035 1633953
Current Account -393.60
USD Million
-85.28 36.86 -4.31 -60.16 -35.52
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent
-1.6 -1.13 -0.67 -0.2 -1.25
Capital Flows -1666.90
USD Million
-147 -173 -93.82 -56.15 -49.24
Remittances 752.23
USD Million
724 714 714 715 684
Gold Reserves 11.79
Tonnes
12.14 12.49 12.84 13.19 15.5
Crude Oil Production 513.00
BBL/D/1K
512 509 507 505 487
Terrorism Index 1.62
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
Foreign Direct Investment 134.44
USD Million
159 157 147 159 150
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 39.60
percent
37.47 39.75 42.02 44.3 50.3
Government Budget -7.50
percent of GDP
-4 -2.28 -2.28 -2.28 -1.49
Government Budget Value -660.19
USD Million
-39.04 -84.96 -108 -119 -130
Government Spending 2685158.00
USD THO
2687596 2685838 2680466 2674670 2595897
Government Revenues 1336.76
USD Million
1752 1879 1895 1873 1523
Fiscal Expenditure 1996.95
USD Million
1827 1798 1753 1716 1424
Military Expenditure 2130.30
USD Million
1980 1980 1980 1980 1965
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 1274.00
Index Points
1302 1320 1330 1334 1274
Changes in Inventories 324001.00
USD THO
291519 271375 245219 225706 163871
Leading Economic Index 0.80
percent
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.8
Internet Speed 6150.50
KBps
5938 6374 6695 6087 5567
IP Addresses 787799.00
IP
761498 754008 746052 738045 679723
Steel Production 50.00
Thousand Tonnes
47.68 47.67 47.27 46.91 42.96
Manufacturing Production -8.09
percent
-8.59 -7.18 -9.29 -11.77 -9.85
Ease of Doing Business 118.00
119 121 122 124 129
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
31 30 29 28 23
Corruption Rank 120.00
110 114 119 123 115
Competitiveness Index 3.91
Points
3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.86
Competitiveness Rank 97.00
92 92 92 92 95
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 38.90
Index Points
39.1 39.27 39.4 39.5 39.94
Consumer Spending 10918927.00
USD THO
10780000 10800000 10850000 10900000 11500000
Private Sector Credit 24748.16
USD Million
25486 25905 26122 26217 25393
Consumer Credit 19918.20
USD Million
20879 21280 21506 21616 20785
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
34 34 34 34 33
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 21.60
percent
21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15
percent
12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45
percent
9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 21.51
celsius
22.37 22.04 21.35 21.89 22.4