Ecuador - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.8 0.9 1 0.9 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.70 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate -0.71 0.3 1 1.5 1.7 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.33 8 8 8 8 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -125942.00 175000 30000 100000 40000 100000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 32.50 36.05 36.05 38.6 38.6 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 1329.95
points
1308 1285 1262 1240 1154
Currency 95.09
93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
0.8 0.9 1 0.9 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
GDP 103.06
USD Billion
104 104 84.7 84.7 85
GDP Constant Prices 18019265.00
USD THO
18088232 18307573 18271535 18271535 18805210
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4050358.00
USD THO
4063810 4115164 4107063 4107063 4227022
GDP per capita 5269.62
USD
5300 5300 5100 5100 5250
GDP per capita PPP 10581.94
USD
10605 10605 10850 10850 11000
Gdp From Agriculture 1408701.00
USD Thousand
1396962 1431240 1428423 1428423 1470144
Gdp From Construction 1515823.00
USD Thousand
1537905 1540076 1537045 1537045 1581939
Gdp From Manufacturing 2066811.00
USD Thousand
2076388 2099880 2095746 2095746 2156959
Gdp From Mining 1628385.00
USD Thousand
1716210 1654439 1651182 1651182 1699410
Gdp From Public Administration 1166222.00
USD Thousand
1178549 1184882 1182549 1182549 1217089
Gdp From Services 1150558.00
USD Thousand
1156879 1168967 1166666 1166666 1200742
Gdp From Transport 1275177.00
USD Thousand
1285188 1295580 1293029 1293029 1330796
Gdp From Utilities 555060.00
USD Thousand
544568 563941 562831 562831 579270
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.70
percent
5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.8
Wages 437.44
USD/Month
447 447 455 461 475
Population 16.78
Million
16.98 17.04 17.1 17.17 17.83
Wages In Manufacturing 437.00
USD/Month
450 452 453 440 470
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.20
percent
65.57 65.56 65.29 65.39 65.33
Minimum Wages 375.00
USD/Month
375 375 380 388 390
Employment Rate 94.31
percent
94.31 94.13 94.25 94.14 94.18
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate -0.71
percent
0.3 1 1.5 1.7 2.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.81
Index Points
106 106 107 107 110
Producer Prices 103.24
Index Points
104 106 106 106 111
Producer Prices Change 2.46
percent
2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom -0.27
percent
-0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
Food Inflation -3.60
percent
-2.7 -2.4 0.1 0.4 0.8
CPI Housing Utilities 114.93
Index Points
114 115 116 117 120
CPI Transportation 105.31
Index Points
107 107 108 107 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.33
percent
8 8 8 8 7.5
Interbank Rate 1.25
percent
1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Money Supply M1 23911.71
USD Million
24660 25085 25515 25944 30192
Money Supply M2 50920.64
USD Million
51988 52552 53010 53400 55278
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3166.74
USD Million
3480 3763 3815 3804 3796
Loans to Private Sector 15000.80
USD Million
15338 15470 15572 15643 15814
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent
4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 3.67
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -125942.00
USD Thousand
175000 30000 100000 40000 100000
Exports 1951037.00
USD Thousand
1930000 1900000 1940000 1920000 1980000
Imports 2076979.00
USD Thousand
1755000 1870000 1840000 1880000 1880000
Current Account 107.27
USD Million
-300 420 560 70 -150
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent
-1.13 1.1 -1.56 0.23 -0.34
Capital Flows 2360.96
USD Million
81.76 258 -53.02 -33.37 -46.71
Remittances 715.05
USD Million
764 772 744 754 766
Gold Reserves 11.80
Tonnes
11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
Crude Oil Production 517.00
BBL/D/1K
518 517 517 517 517
Terrorism Index 1.62
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7
Foreign Direct Investment 82.55
USD Million
147 134 152 151 150
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.50
percent
36.05 36.05 38.6 38.6 39
Government Budget -5.90
percent of GDP
-4.5 -4.5 -4.2 -4.2 -4
Government Budget Value 197.27
USD Million
-249 -241 -241 -240 -240
Government Spending 2710581.00
USD THO
2729068 2753950 2748529 2748529 2828808
Government Revenues 1903.37
USD Million
1595 1601 1602 1602 1602
Fiscal Expenditure 1706.10
USD Million
1844 1842 1843 1843 1843
Military Expenditure 2413.24
USD Million
2300 2300 2200 2200 2150
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 1308.10
Index Points
1341 1364 1387 1408 1573
Changes in Inventories 191121.00
USD THO
196460 195967 196115 196096 196100
Leading Economic Index 7.50
percent
2 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.4
Internet Speed 6150.50
KBps
7681 7500 7667 8208 9931
IP Addresses 787799.00
IP
817121 816352 819696 820312 826162
Steel Production 50.00
Thousand Tonnes
47.99 48.94 49.15 49 48.98
Manufacturing Production 5.63
percent
-3.8 -2.6 -3.2 -3.4 -4
Ease of Doing Business 118.00
122 122 124 124 125
Corruption Index 32.00
Points
33 33 31 31 30
Corruption Rank 117.00
116 116 115 115 116
Competitiveness Index 3.91
Points
3.9 3.9 3.88 3.88 3.7
Competitiveness Rank 97.00
92 92 95 95 95
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 39.00
Index Points
38.5 38.61 38.6 38.64 38.64
Consumer Spending 11145504.00
USD THO
11097799 11323832 11301541 11301541 11631636
Private Sector Credit 25715.26
USD Million
26178 26546 26834 27061 27825
Consumer Credit 21155.90
USD Million
22302 22892 23417 23886 26509
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 21.60
percent
21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15
percent
12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45
percent
9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 21.51
celsius
21.35 21.89 22.42 22.47 22.4