Ecuador - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.9 1.2 1 1.1 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 percent
Inflation Rate -0.78 0.3 0.8 1 1.5 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 8.13 8 8 8 8 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade 95029.00 3313 -7896 15264 1763 127599 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 32.50 37.05 39.75 42.5 49.4 38.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Stock Market 1304.82
points
1237 1207 1179 1151 1046
Currency 94.19
92.94 93.86 94.78 95.7 95.7
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
0.9 1.2 1 1.1 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
2.3 2 1.7 1.5 1.6
GDP 97.80
USD Billion
97.8 97.15 96.5 84.7 80
GDP Constant Prices 18019265.00
USD THO
17946737 18125388 17904078 18232745 18463402
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4050358.00
USD THO
3964069 3943233 4086483 3966589 4214144
GDP per capita 5210.10
USD
5214 5410 5410 5450 5500
GDP per capita PPP 10462.40
USD
10524 10428 10941 11230 11590
Gdp From Agriculture 1408701.00
USD Thousand
1383591 1375112 1369226 1383257 1412001
Gdp From Construction 1515823.00
USD Thousand
1524008 1491630 1609002 1500465 1659267
Gdp From Manufacturing 2066811.00
USD Thousand
2084196 2092510 2080567 2104903 2145563
Gdp From Mining 1628385.00
USD Thousand
1707036 1714638 1761481 1724794 1816510
Gdp From Public Administration 1166222.00
USD Thousand
1177523 1187827 1172181 1194862 1208800
Gdp From Services 1150558.00
USD Thousand
1138954 1166880 1136499 1173791 1172003
Gdp From Transport 1275177.00
USD Thousand
1264866 1282998 1241432 1290597 1280215
Gdp From Utilities 555060.00
USD Thousand
547304 532057 511069 535208 527035
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80
percent
5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.2
Wages 437.44
USD/Month
447 447 447 455 475
Population 16.78
Million
16.67 16.73 16.8 16.86 17.87
Wages In Manufacturing 437.00
USD/Month
446 450 452 453 470
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.90
percent
65.89 65.88 65.89 65.89 65.89
Minimum Wages 375.00
USD/Month
375 375 375 380 390
Employment Rate 94.31
percent
94.29 94.53 94.31 94.49 94.4
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate -0.78
percent
0.3 0.8 1 1.5 2.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.29
Index Points
106 107 106 107 111
Producer Prices 104.06
Index Points
103 104 106 106 111
Producer Prices Change 2.61
percent
1.8 2 2.2 2.3 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom -0.14
percent
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.28 0.6
Food Inflation -3.33
percent
0.6 1.5 3 3.2 3.5
CPI Housing Utilities 114.49
Index Points
114 115 116 114 120
CPI Transportation 105.91
Index Points
107 108 108 107 112
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 8.13
percent
8 8 8 8 7.5
Interbank Rate 0.97
percent
1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 0.51
Money Supply M1 23979.42
USD Million
24544 24932 25371 25819 30699
Money Supply M2 51100.73
USD Million
51916 52881 53772 54581 59801
Foreign Exchange Reserves 4260.35
USD Million
4071 4063 4110 4123 4123
Loans to Private Sector 14703.40
USD Million
14892 14410 13932 13727 14307
Deposit Interest Rate 4.80
percent
5.01 5.01 5.01 5.01 4.51
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 95029.00
USD Thousand
3313 -7896 15264 1763 127599
Exports 1852865.00
USD Thousand
1779397 1755314 1743651 1739263 1737691
Imports 1757836.00
USD Thousand
1776084 1763210 1750240 1737500 1610092
Current Account -224.98
USD Million
-14.92 -174 -159 -161 -128
Current Account to GDP 1.50
percent
-0.09 -1.13 1.09 -1.56 -0.34
Capital Flows 221.48
USD Million
-171 -101 -54.92 -75.17 -48.99
Remittances 763.38
USD Million
754 776 782 759 781
Gold Reserves 11.80
Tonnes
11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
Crude Oil Production 511.00
BBL/D/1K
513 513 513 513 513
Terrorism Index 1.62
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.87 1.3
Foreign Direct Investment 82.55
USD Million
157 147 159 152 150
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.50
percent
37.05 39.75 42.5 49.4 38.8
Government Budget -5.90
percent of GDP
-2.28 -2.28 -2.28 -7.19 -5.5
Government Budget Value -371.29
USD Million
-297 -319 -322 -322 -322
Government Spending 2710581.00
USD THO
2664592 2720065 2658306 2736176 2741351
Government Revenues 1178.24
USD Million
1584 1578 1577 1576 1576
Fiscal Expenditure 1549.53
USD Million
1881 1896 1899 1898 1898
Military Expenditure 2413.24
USD Million
1980 1980 1980 1650 1965
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 1287.10
Index Points
1218 1191 1196 1224 1212
Changes in Inventories 191121.00
USD THO
274986 274986 274986 274986 274986
Leading Economic Index 0.90
percent
1.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5
Internet Speed 6150.50
KBps
6374 6695 6087 6154 5567
IP Addresses 787799.00
IP
812447 817121 816352 819696 826162
Steel Production 45.00
Thousand Tonnes
46.12 46.19 46.62 46.84 46.72
Manufacturing Production -1.61
percent
-10.71 -7.49 -10.87 -10.26 -9.69
Ease of Doing Business 118.00
121 122 124 125 129
Corruption Index 32.00
Points
32 33 33 33 33
Corruption Rank 117.00
119 119 118 117 118
Competitiveness Index 3.91
Points
3.93 3.93 3.93 3.89 3.86
Competitiveness Rank 97.00
94 94 94 94 94
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 38.80
Index Points
39.85 39.93 39.97 39.99 40.1
Consumer Spending 11145504.00
USD THO
10917078 11060873 10798631 11126387 11135980
Private Sector Credit 24910.55
USD Million
25214 25420 25578 25698 26059
Consumer Credit 20543.90
USD Million
21343 20968 20082 18972 18919
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 23
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 21.60
percent
21.6 21.6 21.6 22 21.6
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15
percent
12.15 12.15 12.15 11.98 12.15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45
percent
9.45 9.45 9.45 9.95 9.45
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 21.51
celsius
22.04 21.35 21.89 22.42 22.4