Ecuador | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate -0.22 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.79 7.6 7.3 7.5 8 8.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -71200.00 -80025 -39143 -25628 -22065 -21376 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 39.60 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.5 49.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Stock Market 1218.28 1220 1210 1190 1180 1050 points [+]
Currency 93.96 95.03 95.97 96.91 97.85 108 [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 percent [+]
GDP 97.80 97.1 96.52 95.95 95.37 88.1 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17815075.00 18092870 18193688 18268732 18323158 18324696 USD THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3925990.00 3856493 3839622 3827468 3817615 3748093 USD THO [+]
GDP per capita 5210.10 5390 5112 5089 5065 5500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 10462.40 10750 10222 10168 10113 11590 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 1379564.00 1391527 1394074 1394619 1394172 1381865 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Construction 1500086.00 1478989 1467631 1458910 1450044 1391340 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 2068539.00 2065713 2063233 2060699 2058111 2032632 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Mining 1694871.00 1699617 1694455 1688320 1680479 1629563 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 1169954.00 1183817 1164262 1169358 1160978 1149452 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Services 1124178.00 1106749 1108182 1108425 1107618 1097067 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Transport 1250831.00 1286360 1300295 1312113 1321777 1346780 USD Thousand [+]
Gdp From Utilities 552772.00 561086 566872 566460 567133 552284 USD Thousand [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.80 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 percent [+]
Wages 426.92 435 436 436 437 426 USD/Month [+]
Population 16.53 16.75 16.8 16.85 16.91 17.32 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.70 65.77 65.8 65.81 65.85 66 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 366.00 375 377 378 380 384 USD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 94.64 94.34 94.43 94.21 94.23 93.88 percent [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 430.00 430 429 428 427 419 USD/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate -0.22 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.82 105 105 105 106 107 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 102.16 102 102 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.27 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Food Inflation -0.43 -0.37 0.86 2.35 3.54 4.82 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 113.58 114 113 113 113 112 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 106.33 106 106 106 105 105 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.52 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.8 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.79 7.6 7.3 7.5 8 8.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.10 1.15 2.12 2.15 2.19 2.43 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 23150.37 22746 22712 22675 22636 22288 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 48162.52 47619 47557 47466 47365 46408 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 4018.47 2644 2665 2702 2734 2892 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 13899.10 13974 13969 13943 13912 13629 USD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 4.80 6.29 6.58 6.88 7.17 10.08 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -71200.00 -80025 -39143 -25628 -22065 -21376 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 1676100.00 1556282 1530917 1512734 1496768 1368196 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 1747300.00 1767708 1760629 1748786 1736438 1632333 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account 59.23 -40.65 7.77 9.3 -9.5 -30.68 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.50 -0.2 -0.61 -1.01 -1.42 -1.25 percent [+]
Capital Flows 616.69 75.78 -72.93 -16.45 -31.26 -31.62 USD Million [+]
Remittances 698.89 691 678 676 675 654 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 11.79 12.58 12.97 13.35 13.72 16.4 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 521.00 538 535 533 530 511 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 175.13 187 160 156 152 150 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.62 1.07 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 39.60 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.5 49.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -7.50 -5.66 -5 -2.28 -2.28 -1.73 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -466.00 -192 -162 -149 -142 -135 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2635491.00 2641333 2633476 2630302 2623953 2571282 USD THO [+]
Government Revenues 1076.63 1377 1348 1323 1304 1176 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1542.63 1702 1635 1614 1584 1387 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2130.30 2000 1980 1980 1980 1965 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 1231.00 1253 1266 1272 1275 1234 [+]
Industrial Production -3.73 3.37 3.6 3.76 3.88 4.16 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 341527.00 318111 301202 268689 234682 170241 USD THO [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.70 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 percent [+]
Internet Speed 6150.50 6622 5938 6374 6695 5893 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 787799.00 769168 761498 754008 746052 679723 IP [+]
Ease of Doing Business 118.00 118 121 122 124 129 [+]
Corruption Index 31.00 28 28 27 26 24 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 120.00 123 123 123 123 118 [+]
Competitiveness Index 3.91 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.93 3.88 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 97.00 92 92 92 92 95 [+]
Steel Production 45.00 45.88 45.19 44.86 44.49 41.42 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 39.40 39.37 39.44 39.52 39.6 39.95 [+]
Consumer Spending 10797218.00 10750437 10780000 10800000 10850000 11500000 USD THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 23841.02 24340 24684 24855 24920 24326 USD Million [+]
Consumer Credit 19169.10 19840 20235 20445 20542 20042 USD Million [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00 22 22 22 22 23 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 34 34 34 33 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 14.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.60 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 percent [+]