Wheat Hits 25-month High

Wheat increased to 683.50 USd/Bu, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat gained 11.11%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 27.61%.

Wheat futures climbed toward $7 per bushel in mid-July, reaching their highest level since May 20, 2024, as escalating Ukrainian and Russian strikes in the Black Sea raised concerns over disruptions to a crucial global grain export corridor. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian vessels in the Black Sea after striking more than 100 Russia-linked ships in the Sea of Azov, while Moscow stepped up attacks on Ukrainian ports. The Black Sea remains a critical hub for global grain shipments, with Russia the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine among the leading suppliers. Ukraine has already lost roughly one-third of its grain export capacity through Black Sea ports due to intensified Russian attacks, raising concerns over tighter global supplies. The latest escalation has revived memories of the supply shock at the start of the war in 2022, when the closure of Ukrainian ports stranded millions of tonnes of grain and sent global food prices sharply higher.

Wheat futures advanced to around $6.50 per bushel in mid-July, reaching their highest level since May 20, as investors weighed mounting geopolitical risks and their potential impact on global grain flows. Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted shipping in the Sea of Azov, a key route that handles about a quarter of Russia’s grain exports. This has forced Moscow to seek alternative transport routes and switch to other modes of transport. Renewed tensions in the Middle East also provided further support, with concerns over higher fertilizer and fuel costs resurfacing following recent attacks between the US and Iran and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US government cut its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 41.8 million tonnes, the lowest since 1970, and lowered Canada’s output estimate by 1 million tonnes to 34 million tonnes.