Wheat Rises on USDA Supply Cut

2026-06-12 03:06 By Joshua Ferrer 1 min. read

Wheat futures rose above $5.9 per bushel in mid-June, climbing off a recent two-month low, as US supply concerns intensified following a fresh downgrade to the winter wheat crop outlook.

The USDA cut its US winter wheat outlook by 2% from a month earlier as a harsh Plains drought pushed hard red winter wheat production to its lowest level since 1957, while crop conditions deteriorated further with just 25% rated good-to-excellent, the weakest for this time of year on record.

The decline in US output has tightened supply expectations, even as harvest activity gets underway across key growing states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

El Niño weather risks continued to underpin prices, raising the threat of droughts, floods and temperature extremes across major global growing regions.

The drop in output has also added pressure on US farmers already facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and trade tensions stemming from US tariff measures.



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Wheat Rises on USDA Supply Cut
Wheat futures rose above $5.9 per bushel in mid-June, climbing off a recent two-month low, as US supply concerns intensified following a fresh downgrade to the winter wheat crop outlook. The USDA cut its US winter wheat outlook by 2% from a month earlier as a harsh Plains drought pushed hard red winter wheat production to its lowest level since 1957, while crop conditions deteriorated further with just 25% rated good-to-excellent, the weakest for this time of year on record. The decline in US output has tightened supply expectations, even as harvest activity gets underway across key growing states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. El Niño weather risks continued to underpin prices, raising the threat of droughts, floods and temperature extremes across major global growing regions. The drop in output has also added pressure on US farmers already facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and trade tensions stemming from US tariff measures.
2026-06-12
Wheat Futures Rise on El Niño Weather Risks
Wheat futures rose above $5.90 per bushel in early June, staying away from a near two-month low touched on June 5, as the emergence of El Niño heightened concerns over global crop risks. The climate phenomenon, which has taken shape across the equatorial Pacific and expected to intensify in the months ahead, is likely to unleash droughts, floods, and temperature extremes that could disrupt production of key commodities, including wheat. Its impacts are also projected to intensify globally, including a wetter-than-usual winter in the southern US, drought and wildfire risks in Australia, and potential disruptions to the Atlantic hurricane season. Additional support came from short-covering and bargain hunting ahead of the USDA’s closely watched June supply-and-demand report due on Thursday, as investors monitored signs of renewed Chinese purchases of US agricultural products following Beijing’s pledge last month to buy $17 billion worth of US farm goods.
2026-06-10
Wheat Futures Fall to Near 2-Month Low
Wheat futures fell to around $5.80 per bushel in early June, hitting their lowest level since April 10, as a strong global supply outlook and subdued demand continued to weigh on prices. In Ukraine, agricultural consultancy APK-Inform raised its forecast for wheat production to 21.7 million tons from 19.9 million tons, while Russia's IKAR consultancy increased its estimate to 91.5 million metric tons from 90 million tons. Elsewhere, recent rainfall across large areas of previously parched farmland in Australia improved planting conditions and encouraged late wheat sowing. In the US, improved soil moisture in drought-stricken wheat-growing regions, together with the advancing winter wheat harvest, added to expectations of robust supplies. Meanwhile, heavy and persistent rainfall across major wheat-producing areas in China raised concerns about crop quality and harvest disruptions, but the adverse weather had been largely anticipated, and any resulting damage was expected to be limited.
2026-06-08