Wheat Futures Jump 5% after WASDE Report

Wheat futures jumped more than 5% to $6.57 per bushel, the highest since June 2024, after US government forecasts pointed to a tighter supply outlook for the coming season. The USDA projected all wheat production at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year due to lower acreage and weaker yields. The first survey based estimate for 2026 to 2027 winter wheat output also showed a sharp drop of 25%, driven mainly by reduced Hard Red Winter production. Crop conditions also deteriorated unexpectedly, with the USDA rating 28% of winter wheat as good to excellent, down from 31% the previous week and below analyst expectations. This is the weakest reading for this time of year since 2022, reinforcing concerns that recent rainfall has not been enough to offset drought stress in US Plains regions. Additional support came from energy markets, where oil prices rose after comments from US President Donald Trump that the Iran ceasefire remains fragile.

Wheat increased to 661.75 USd/Bu, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat gained 12.98%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 27.18%.

Wheat futures climbed more than 1% to near $6.30 per bushel, extending gains for a third consecutive session as persistent dryness across parts of the US Great Plains continues to threaten yields in a breadbasket region. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, winter wheat conditions deteriorated further, with 28% of the crop now rated good to excellent, down from 31% the previous week and significantly below 54% a year earlier. Market attention is also focused on the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report due Tuesday, which is expected to update projections for wheat production and global supply balances amid persistent drought conditions. Additional support for wheat prices has come from broader geopolitical uncertainty affecting global trade flows. Recent developments in US–Iran negotiations have further unsettled markets, as talks failed to produce an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.