Wheat at 548.45USd/BU

Wheat futures hovered around $5.5 per bushel on Friday, near the three-month high of $5.525 touched on February 12, as improving supply expectations tempered the earlier rally. Gains initially driven by weather concerns and export optimism faded as tangible increases in global availability came into focus. India’s decision to reopen exports with a 2.5 million-ton allocation, alongside Argentina’s record harvest and strong shipment pace, injected fresh supply into an already well-stocked market. At the same time, USDA revisions lifted US ending stocks to their highest level since the 2019/20 season, while global inventories remain comfortable by recent standards, reinforcing buyers’ leverage. Early February freezes also caused only limited damage to US winter wheat crops, easing fears of a weather-related shortfall and further capping upside momentum.

Wheat increased to 545.00 USd/Bu, the highest since November 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Wheat gained 6.77%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.66%.

Wheat futures fell below $5.28 per bushel, retreating from eight week highs last seen on January 29th, as supply risks that briefly supported prices have eased while overall availability remains ample. Early February gains driven by weather concerns have faded as short term forecasts reduced extreme cold risks and NOAA now points to wetter conditions later this month, lowering the likelihood of widespread winterkill and easing near term crop loss risks across the Plains and Midwest. Meanwhile, US export commitments are strong, running about 17% higher year on year and close to 90% of the USDA projection, yet expected US ending stocks are only seen edging lower to around 918m bushels, leaving a sizable supply buffer. At the same time, positioning has been pared back ahead of the February WASDE, reinforcing downside pressure, while competitively priced Black Sea and other export supplies continue to cap upside by keeping global availability well supplied.