UK Natural Gas Prices Drop Further

UK natural gas prices fell more than 4% to below 157 pence per therm on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as signs of progress in Middle East negotiations eased concerns over further supply disruptions. Iran’s and Oman’s foreign ministers said that they discussed plans for a temporary transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a project to clear mines from the waterway. Pakistan also reported significant progress in talks with Tehran aimed at ending the war. The US decision to return diplomats to the Middle East also allayed fears of a further escalation in the conflict. However, supply risks remain as the ongoing maritime blockade continues to disrupt physical LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, with shipments from major exporter Qatar facing severe delays. Persistent hot weather across Europe is also driving higher electricity demand for cooling, slowing the pace of seasonal gas storage injections.

UK natural gas prices hovered near 169 pence per therm on Tuesday, the highest level since January 2023, as fresh US measures against Iran intensified concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. The US Treasury said expanded secondary sanctions would target Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors. It also imposed new sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels allegedly involved in generating oil revenues for Iran, procuring weapons, and supporting cyber operations. These developments have added to already elevated supply risks in Europe, where the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has constrained LNG deliveries from Qatar. The disruption has coincided with stronger cooling demand amid persistent heatwaves, making it more difficult for Europe to rebuild gas inventories and heightening fears that the region could enter the winter heating season with insufficient supplies.

UK natural gas prices rose further above 169 pence per therm, the highest since January 2023, as investors awaited details of a US plan to economically isolate Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference later today and has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. This follows President Trump’s threat last week to impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Tehran. Iran, however, dismissed the threats as a sign of desperation, saying the new sanctions would fail to defeat Tehran. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as ongoing tensions between the two sides have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe. This, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, has slowed the pace of inventory replenishment, leaving European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of winter.