UK Natgas Prices Hold Advance

UK natural gas prices hovered near 169 pence per therm on Tuesday, the highest level since January 2023, as fresh US measures against Iran intensified concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. The US Treasury said expanded secondary sanctions would target Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors. It also imposed new sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels allegedly involved in generating oil revenues for Iran, procuring weapons, and supporting cyber operations. These developments have added to already elevated supply risks in Europe, where the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has constrained LNG deliveries from Qatar. The disruption has coincided with stronger cooling demand amid persistent heatwaves, making it more difficult for Europe to rebuild gas inventories and heightening fears that the region could enter the winter heating season with insufficient supplies.

UK natural gas prices rose further above 169 pence per therm, the highest since January 2023, as investors awaited details of a US plan to economically isolate Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference later today and has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. This follows President Trump’s threat last week to impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Tehran. Iran, however, dismissed the threats as a sign of desperation, saying the new sanctions would fail to defeat Tehran. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as ongoing tensions between the two sides have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe. This, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, has slowed the pace of inventory replenishment, leaving European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of winter.

UK natural gas prices held above 161 pence per therm on Friday, the highest level since January 2023, as the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict muddied the outlook for Gulf LNG supplies. The two sides continued to clash over the Strait of Hormuz, with the conflict entering a new phase of economic pressure. Traders are concerned about Europe’s readiness for the upcoming winter as the maritime blockade has stranded Qatari LNG cargoes, forcing European utilities into more intense and costly competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. Heatwave-driven demand for cooling is also limiting gas injections into storage. Europe's storage levels are at just 62%, the lowest seasonal level in records dating back to 2009, leaving the region with limited time to replenish inventories before the heating season begins. Despite this, the European Commission said that gas supplies in the bloc are not immediately at risk. UK gas prices have risen more than 6% this week.