UK Natural Gas Holds at Multi-Year Highs

UK natural gas prices held above 161 pence per therm on Friday, the highest level since January 2023, as the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict muddied the outlook for Gulf LNG supplies. The two sides continued to clash over the Strait of Hormuz, with the conflict entering a new phase of economic pressure. Traders are concerned about Europe’s readiness for the upcoming winter as the maritime blockade has stranded Qatari LNG cargoes, forcing European utilities into more intense and costly competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. Heatwave-driven demand for cooling is also limiting gas injections into storage. Europe's storage levels are at just 62%, the lowest seasonal level in records dating back to 2009, leaving the region with limited time to replenish inventories before the heating season begins. Despite this, the European Commission said that gas supplies in the bloc are not immediately at risk. UK gas prices have risen more than 6% this week.

UK natural gas prices rose toward 157 pence per therm on Thursday, recouping the previous session’s losses as restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns over global LNG supplies. President Donald Trump vowed on Wednesday to impose “tremendous punishment” on countries that help or do business with Iran, ramping up economic pressure on Tehran to reopen the critical waterway. His threats came a day after he said there were no ongoing talks and that the naval blockade of Iran remained in force, while Tehran maintained that the waterway remained closed. The blockade has halted Qatari LNG deliveries, forcing European utilities to compete aggressively for available cargoes. Reduced LNG inflows, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, have slowed Europe’s seasonal gas storage injections. This has amplified concerns that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves, keeping upward pressure on gas prices.

UK natural gas prices held recent gains, hovering above 157 pence per therm on Wednesday, as concerns over a potential winter supply crunch intensified amid a lack of progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said that no talks with Iran are currently taking place or scheduled and that the US naval blockade remains in full force. He added that the strait is open and operating, in contrast to Iran’s position that the key waterway will remain closed until Washington meets its conditions. Traffic through the waterway has fallen to a standstill, stranding Qatari LNG tankers and delaying deliveries to Europe. The reduced inflow, combined with summer heatwaves that have boosted demand for gas-fired power generation for cooling, is slowing the seasonal buildup of gas inventories. As a result, traders are increasingly concerned that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves, keeping upward pressure on gas prices.