Sugar Futures Subdued

Sugar futures in the US rose to around 14.6 cents per pound, rebounding from recent three-month lows of 14.3, as traders weighed the prospect of a smaller global surplus in the coming season. Claudiu Covrig, lead agriculture analyst at Covrig Analytics, told the Dubai Sugar Conference that the global surplus is forecast to narrow to 1.4 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, down sharply from 4.7 million in 2025/26, on subdued exports from top grower India. Meanwhile, sugar production in Brazil’s key Centre-South region is expected to edge higher to 40.9 million metric tons in 2026/27, from 40.77 million in 2025/26, according to Brazil-based Datagro. On January 30, StoneX said it expects the 2025/26 global sugar market to end with a 2.9-million-ton surplus, down 800,000 tons from its November forecast. This reverses the 3.14-million-ton deficit recorded in the previous cycle and reinforces expectations of a well-supplied market over the near term.

Sugar futures in the US traded around 14.3 cents per pound, the lowest since early November 2025, amid ongoing expectations of ample global supply. According to StoneX’s latest projections, the 2025/26 global sugar market will finish with a 2.9-million-ton surplus, down by 800,000 tons from November's estimate, but reversing the estimated deficit of 3.14 million tons in the previous cycle. This reduction, largely from Brazil’s Center-South and North-Northeast regions, does not change the expectation of a well-supplied global sugar market. High fuel prices in Brazil drive sugar producers to divert crops to more-profitable ethanol blenders instead of sugar mills. The broker noted that the recovery of sugarcane production in India and Thailand is crucial for rebalancing the global market, while growth in consumption is moderating across key regions such as India, China, Indonesia, and the US.

Sugar decreased to 14.41 USd/Lbs, the lowest since December 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 3.91%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 25.61%.