Steel Rebar Set to Drop 7% in 2025

2025-12-23 11:29 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

Steel rebar futures in China were at CNY 3,085 per tonne, maintaining most of the pullback from the over-three-month high of CNY 3,118 earlier in December, and set to close the year around 7% lower amid soft demand for ferrous metals.

China's NBS Construction PMI reflected a fourth consecutive contraction in October to reflect the continued deterioration for the sector amid the prolonged property crisis in the world's largest rebar consumer.

Manufacturing activity also remained muted, limiting buying activity for coils.

The poor demand domestically drove mills to divert their product to foreign consumers, with steel exports rising by 6.7% annually this year up to November.

Still, protectionist rhetoric from key buyers in Southeast Asia and Latin America pressured the outlook for exports next year, driving Beijing to signal capacity limits on finished ferrous metal production to combat deflationary risks.

Consequently, steel output fell by 10.9% annually to 70 million tons in November.



News Stream
Steel Declines on Demand Worries
Steel rebar futures fell below CNY 3,190 per ton, hovering near their lowest levels in three weeks as signs of slowing economic activity in top consumer China weighed on the outlook for steel demand. Data released earlier this week showed that China’s retail sales and industrial production both missed expectations, while fixed asset investment unexpectedly contracted amid the impact of the global energy crisis on businesses and consumers worldwide. Domestic steel consumption in China also remained under pressure from sluggish construction activity, while demand for Chinese steel exports weakened as overseas buyers showed limited appetite for purchases at elevated prices. Meanwhile, Mysteel’s latest monthly industry report indicated that long steel output is likely to increase as improved profit margins encourage domestic steelmakers to ramp up production, potentially creating additional downward pressure later this month as end-user demand softens.
2026-05-19
Steel Retreats as Seasonal Slowdown Looms
Steel rebar futures fell below CNY 3,200 per ton, pulling back from nine-month highs as expectations of a seasonal slowdown in demand and softer downstream consumption weighed on the market. Mysteel’s latest monthly industry report indicated that construction steel prices in China are likely to face pressure this month due to weakening supply-demand fundamentals. The report also noted that long steel output is expected to increase as improving profit margins encourage domestic steelmakers to raise production, potentially adding downward pressure later in the month as end-user demand weakens, particularly in southern China during the wet season. Still, stronger-than-expected economic data from China provided some support to sentiment, with exports surging to a record high in April as companies accelerated stockpiling of components amid concerns that the Iran conflict could further raise input costs.
2026-05-13
Steel Climbs Toward 9-Month High
Steel rebar futures climbed toward CNY 3,250 per ton, approaching their highest level since July last year as expectations for stronger demand supported the market. Steel production in China remained stable, while improved profit margins at mills encouraged firmer output and boosted sentiment across the sector. Stronger-than-expected economic data from China also underpinned prices, with exports surging to a record high in April as companies accelerated stockpiling of components from the manufacturing hub amid concerns that the Iran conflict could drive input costs even higher. In addition, China’s consumer inflation exceeded forecasts, while producer prices recorded their strongest increase in nearly four years, pointing to a continued recovery from the deflationary pressures that weighed on the economy in recent months. Still, analysts warned that the approaching seasonal slowdown in steel demand and softer downstream consumption could cap further upside in steel prices.
2026-05-11