Steel Rebar Set to Drop 7% in 2025

2025-12-23 11:29 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

Steel rebar futures in China were at CNY 3,085 per tonne, maintaining most of the pullback from the over-three-month high of CNY 3,118 earlier in December, and set to close the year around 7% lower amid soft demand for ferrous metals.

China's NBS Construction PMI reflected a fourth consecutive contraction in October to reflect the continued deterioration for the sector amid the prolonged property crisis in the world's largest rebar consumer.

Manufacturing activity also remained muted, limiting buying activity for coils.

The poor demand domestically drove mills to divert their product to foreign consumers, with steel exports rising by 6.7% annually this year up to November.

Still, protectionist rhetoric from key buyers in Southeast Asia and Latin America pressured the outlook for exports next year, driving Beijing to signal capacity limits on finished ferrous metal production to combat deflationary risks.

Consequently, steel output fell by 10.9% annually to 70 million tons in November.



News Stream
Steel Gains as China Curbs Overcapacity
Steel rebar futures held above CNY 3,100 per ton, hovering near five-week highs as China renewed its pledge to support the steel sector by curbing excess capacity. Economic planners at the National People’s Congress signaled plans for orderly reductions in steel capacity, a move that could lift steel prices and improve profit margins. Chinese steel mills continue to face pressure from persistent oversupply amid a prolonged property sector downturn, while steel exports are increasingly constrained by protectionist measures abroad. Beijing issued similar pledges during the 2025 policy meetings, though the outcomes were mixed. The country’s steel output fell below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019, although some analysts questioned the reliability of the official figures. China also set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, as policymakers grapple with ongoing deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs.
2026-03-06
Steel Holds Steady as China Targets Overcapacity
Steel rebar futures held steady above CNY 3,070 per ton, hovering near one-month highs after China reaffirmed its commitment to curb overcapacity in the steel sector, aiming to strengthen the industry’s overall health. Chinese steel mills remain under pressure from persistent oversupply amid a prolonged property downturn, while steel exports are increasingly constrained by protectionist measures in overseas markets. Beijing issued similar pledges during the 2025 policy meetings, though the results were mixed. The country’s steel output fell below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019, although some analysts questioned the reliability of the official figures. China also set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, as policymakers contend with ongoing deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs.
2026-03-05
Steel Rises Amid China Output Curbs
Steel rebar futures climbed toward CNY 3,070 per ton, nearing four-week highs as Chinese authorities ordered production cuts across northern steelmaking hubs to curb pollution during the annual sessions of the National People's Congress. Under the so-called “blue skies” directive, mills were instructed to reduce blast furnace output by 30% for one week starting March 4 to limit emissions in Beijing during the high-profile political meetings. Tighter supply has provided short-term support to prices, as reduced output typically improves profitability and margins for steel producers. However, demand in top consumer China remained soft following the Lunar New Year holiday, and analysts expect steel consumption to ease in the first half of the year amid persistent weakness in the property sector and cautious industrial activity.
2026-03-03