Soybeans Fall on Higher US Supply Outlook

Soybean futures fell below $12.9 per bushel, reaching a one-week low as the USDA's latest report pointed to a more abundant US supply outlook for the 2026/27 season. The agency raised its soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 in September, lifting projected production to 4.56 billion bushels from 4.535 billion. US ending stocks were also revised higher to 315 million bushels from 310 million, adding to concerns over ample supplies. However, the USDA increased its export forecast by 10 million bushels, providing some offset to the bearish outlook, while its season-average farm price estimate remained unchanged at $12 per bushel. Meanwhile, China's Agriculture Ministry cut its 2026/27 soybean output forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes in its October outlook, citing lower-than-expected planted area and yields. The reduction, alongside higher production costs and rising global prices, supported new-crop soybean prices in China.

Soybean futures climbed toward $13.1 per bushel, bouncing off from multi-week lows as slower planting in Brazil and signs of continued export demand lifted prices. About 7.3% of soybean crop in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, had been planted as of Thursday, below 9% a year earlier, with estimated 2026/27 production at 182.7 million metric tons. The USDA has a higher forecast of 186 million tons, which would exceed last year’s record 180.5 million tons. On the demand side, an unnamed buyer purchased 104,000 tonnes of US soybeans, while US export inspections reached 3.99 million tonnes since the start of September, up from 3.05 million tonnes a year earlier. However, gains remained limited by expectations for a large US crop and weak Chinese demand. US crop harvest reached 25% as of October 4, below the five-year average of 33%, although dry weather is expected to accelerate fieldwork, while Chinese purchases are being constrained by an additional 10% tariff on US soybeans.

Soybean futures traded below $12.8 per bushel, near multi-week lows as harvest pressure from an expected record-large US crop weighed on prices. A wet late summer and early autumn slowed the harvest pace, but the arrival of new supplies continued to pressure the market. The harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, with the crop rated 58% good or excellent. Expectations of a weaker August soybean crush added pressure, with processors crushing 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate. Weak Chinese demand also weighed on prices as soybeans were excluded from China’s latest US agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. Chinese crushers have covered much of their needs through early 2027 with South American supplies, while high inventories and weak margins limit fresh purchases. Still, US export demand remains firm, with weekly sales at 1.03 million tonnes for 2026/27, including 589,400 tonnes to China.