Corn Futures Remain Firm

Corn futures traded around $5.3 per bushel, remaining near their highest level since mid-2023 as supply risks in the Black Sea region continued to support prices, while traders weighed the USDA’s latest supply-and-demand report. The September USDA report cut the US 2026/27 corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7, lowered production to 15.8 billion bushels from 16.013 billion, and reduced ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion. The lower forecasts reflected expectations for a smaller US harvest following hot summer weather and concerns over crop conditions. Meanwhile, continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics are also threatening grain flows, forcing Ukraine to reroute more exports through the Danube. This is helping Argentina capture additional demand, with its corn exports expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August–September, partly filling the gap left by disrupted Ukrainian supplies.

Soybean futures held around $13 per bushel, near their highest since December 2023 as strong Chinese buying and higher oil prices supported the market, while traders weighed the USDA’s latest supply-and-demand report. The USDA’s September WASDE report raised its 2026/27 US soybean production forecast to a record 4.535 billion bushels from 4.519 billion in August, with yields seen at 52.8 bushels per acre. US ending stocks were also projected at 310 million bushels, above market expectations, although down from 320 million in August. Meanwhile, China bought about 1 million metric tons of US soybeans last week, as the world’s top oilseed buyer steps up purchases ahead of Xi Jinping’s expected visit to Washington later this month. Oil prices also jumped after new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf compounded supply concerns following the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline. Soybeans often track oil prices given their use in biofuel production.

Soybean futures traded around $13 per bushel, near their highest level since December 2023, supported by a fresh wave of Chinese buying of US supplies ahead of Friday’s widely anticipated USDA supply-and-demand report. China has bought around 1 million metric tons of US soybeans this week, including 340,000 tons of purchases confirmed by the USDA, bringing Chinese purchases close to half of the 25 million tons it has committed to buy annually through 2028. The buying comes ahead of a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, raising hopes for progress on agricultural trade and potentially lower tariffs on US farm goods. Traders are also watching the USDA report for changes to its US soybean production, yield and ending-stock estimates, which could provide further direction for prices. The USDA’s latest assessment showed that 58% of crops were rated good to excellent, unchanged from the prior week and above expectations.