Soybeans Fall Sharply

Soybean futures fell nearly 3% to below $12 per bushel, retreating from a two-year high of $12.3 reached on May 13, as traders took profits following recent gains linked to Tuesday’s WASDE report and reacted to the lack of concrete agricultural announcements from the US-China summit. Market sentiment was weighed down by indications that no fresh Chinese soybean purchases are imminent, with traders noting that China is unlikely to go beyond its existing commitment to buy 25 million metric tons. China has reduced US soybean imports significantly in recent years, increasingly sourcing from Brazil due to lower prices and strong supply availability. According to the US Department of Agriculture, US agricultural exports to China fell to $8.37 billion last year from $24.41 billion in 2024. The USDA also projected US soybean stocks to decline to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2026 to 2027 marketing year, down from 340 million expected at the end of the current season.

Soybean futures held above $12 per bushel, moving near a two-year high reached on March 12, after the USDA projected tighter-than-expected US supplies for the 2026/27 marketing year, reinforcing expectations of strong biofuel-driven demand. The agency forecast soybean ending stocks at 310 million bushels, down from 340 million in 2025/26 and below expectations for an increase, while also trimming old-crop inventories. USDA also projected average soybean prices at $11.40 per bushel next season, nearly 10% above this year’s level, offering relief to US farmers hit by years of weak crop prices, excess grain supplies, trade disruptions, and elevated input costs. Soybean futures have already rallied 17% so far this year, raising hopes that farm-level cash prices could move closer to break-even levels. Additional support came from strong domestic crushing demand tied to expanding biofuel blending mandates and concerns over global oil supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

Soybeans increased to 1211.00 USd/Bu, the highest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Soybeans gained 3.79%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12.48%.