Soybeans Rebound but Trade Uncertainty Caps Gains

Soybean futures rose to around $11.7 per bushel, recovering modestly after a sharp 5.7% drop on March 16, though prices remain under pressure from ongoing uncertainty in global trade. The USDA expects China, the world’s largest soybean importer, to purchase about 108 million metric tons in 2026, slightly higher than last year, supported by steady demand from its feed industry. Recent shipments of US soybeans to China increased following a trade truce, with February imports reaching 1.45 million tons, the highest since June. However, buying momentum has slowed after an initial surge, and the postponement of a planned Trump Xi meeting has added uncertainty over future demand. Soybean futures are heading for a weekly loss of about 4.5%, ending a six week rally. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to dominate China’s imports, with shipments in early 2026 surging more than 80% year on year.

Soybeans decreased 5% to 1164.01 USd/Bu

Soybean futures slid to around $11.5 per bushel, retreating from a nearly two-year high, amid concerns over possible delays in US trade negotiations with China, the world’s largest buyer of the oilseed. The drop followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who said he could postpone a planned summit with China’s Xi Jinping if Beijing does not help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Traders worry that any delay in negotiations could stall a recovery in sales, after a summit between the two leaders late last year had previously triggered a surge in Chinese purchases of US soybeans following months of weak demand. Buying, however, slowed again after reaching an initial 12-million-ton target. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a key global trade route disrupted since the start of the Iran conflict, has continued to support oilseeds through elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks.