Silver Falls as Oil Prices Rise

Silver climbed to around $66 an ounce on Monday, recouping some losses from recent sessions as oil prices fell further following reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a roadmap toward a final peace deal within 60 days. The development helped ease market concerns after both sides recently exchanged threats over the conflict in Lebanon, with Tehran claiming it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, millions of barrels of crude continued to pass through the waterway over the weekend, while Persian Gulf producers prepared to increase output. Investors also looked ahead to this week’s release of the US PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged but maintained a more hawkish stance. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now project at least one rate increase this year, with markets increasingly betting on a hike as early as September.

Silver fell toward $64 an ounce on Monday, extending its recent decline as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated following renewed tensions during the opening day of US-Iran talks. President Donald Trump threatened fresh military action if Hezbollah continues its attacks on Israel and warned Tehran against shutting the Strait of Hormuz again. At the same time, Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended negotiations in response to Trump’s remarks, although sources familiar with the discussions said talks were still underway. Silver was also weighed down by expectations of tighter monetary policy after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last week while adopting a more hawkish tone. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now anticipate at least one rate increase this year, with investors pricing in a potential hike as soon as September.

Silver fell below $65 per ounce on Friday, its lowest level since June 11, and was on track for a weekly loss of around 4.5% as a stronger US dollar and rising interest-rate expectations dampened demand for precious metals. The dollar climbed to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone. Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike later this year, while markets are pricing in roughly a 70% chance of an increase by September. Higher-for-longer interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver while supporting the dollar. Geopolitical uncertainty also remained elevated after Switzerland announced that planned US-Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, clouding prospects for a lasting peace agreement.