Rice Futures Hover at 2024-Highs

Rice futures traded above $17 per hundredweight, staying close to their highest level since July 2024, amid mounting supply concerns in major Asian exporting countries. India’s rice output is projected to decline by 7 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year following a weak monsoon. According to the USDA, Indian rice exports could also fall by around 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027. The projected decline is significant for global markets, as India accounts for more than 40% of worldwide rice exports. Meanwhile, flooding in Thailand has disrupted rice transportation and raised concerns over planting delays and potential crop losses. The risk of a strengthening El Niño adds further uncertainty to production prospects. Higher freight and insurance costs are also increasing shipping expenses, while stronger demand, particularly from African countries, is adding to pressure on the global rice market.

Rice futures have sustained their recent gains, trading near $17 per hundredweight, their highest level since July 2024, amid concerns over tightening supply and rising logistical costs. In its October outlook, the FAO forecast global rice production at 552.5 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, down 2.4% from the prior season’s record. Although global stocks are expected to remain historically high, potentially cushioning supply pressures, adverse weather is adding to production risks in key Asian markets. In India, output is forecast to fall by 6.5% in 2026 to 144 million tonnes, as below-normal monsoon rainfall and reduced summer planting weigh on production. Meanwhile, flooding in Thailand is disrupting river transport and delaying planting for the next crop, while the risk of El Niño-related weather disruptions adds further uncertainty over yields across Asia. Higher fuel, freight and insurance costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also supporting prices.

Rice increased to 16.70 USD/cwt, the highest since July 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 7.76%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 55.54%.