Rice Futures Ease

Rice futures traded around $12.5 per hundredweight, the lowest since May 12 and down from recent ten-month highs, in part due to a stronger US dollar. On the supply side, global rice inventories remain ample after several years of strong output, led by top exporter India. Preliminary data showed the country’s rice output reached a record 154.02 million tonnes in the 2025-26 agricultural year, up from 150.18 million tonnes in the previous period. However, the anticipated return of El Niño later this year, along with rising fertilizer costs linked to Middle East tensions, is raising concerns about potential production declines across major Asian producers. In more adverse scenarios, the region could face irregular monsoons, irrigation challenges, and reduced water availability for crops. In addition to potential production losses, there is also a risk of export restrictions from major global suppliers.

Rice futures rose toward $13 per hundredweight, the highest since August 2025, amid ongoing concerns over tightening supply. The USDA’s latest outlook for the 2026/27 global crop points to lower production, record consumption, and tightening stocks. Global milled rice output is projected at 537.9 million tons, down 0.9% from 2025/26, while US rice supplies are estimated at 175.2 million hundredweight, around 15% lower year-on-year. On the demand side, global consumption is forecast to reach a record 541.3 million tons, up 0.7%. As a result, global rice stocks are expected to fall 1.8% to 192.7 million tons at the end of 2026/27. Supply pressures are being amplified by soaring fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict, while an emerging El Niño is expected to bring hotter, drier conditions and further strain key producing regions of Southeast Asia. Still, global rice stocks remain ample after years of strong output, with top exporter India holding a record 42 million tons.

Rice increased to 12.95 USD/cwt, the highest since August 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 16.69%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.4%.