Rice Futures at 2-Week Lows

Rice futures traded below $11 per hundredweight, hovering near two-week lows, pressured by expectations of abundant global supply. The International Grains Council forecasts the 2026-27 global rice production at a record 548 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season, supported by strong harvests in India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Notably, rice reserves in Indonesia hit an unprecedented 5,000,198 tons as of April 23, 2026, a historic high. However, over the medium term, the market is likely to feel the effects of Middle East conflict. Key producers in Southeast Asia are grappling with rising fuel, freight, and fertilizer costs, driven by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In Vietnam and Thailand, farmers are reportedly scaling back or even suspending planting as higher input costs erode profitability. At present, the region is harvesting its off-season crop, with the main planting season set to begin in May.

Rice futures traded around $11 per hundredweight, holding close to the highest in two weeks, as geopolitical tensions disrupted supply chains. Prices had been in a prolonged downtrend since 2024 and had recently approached decade lows amid expectations of ample global supply. Global inventories remain comfortable, with production expected to reach a record high of 563 million tons in the 2025/26 season. India, the world’s largest exporter, has resumed near full-capacity shipments after exporting about 21.5 million tons in 2025. However, major producers are facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs amid disruptions to key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, linked to the Middle East conflict. Rice, particularly basmati, relies heavily on long-distance maritime transport, making it sensitive to higher freight and insurance costs. In Thailand, conditions have been further strained by a prolonged dry season, which has reduced yields and tightened supplies of the current crop.

Rice decreased to 10.86 USD/cwt, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice lost 3.32%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 19.21%.