Platinum Struggles to Rebound

Platinum futures traded around $1,660 an ounce, moving away from the seven-month low reached on June 22, as a weaker US dollar outweighed easing geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices continued to decline as tanker traffic normalized amid ongoing peace talks, although uncertainty over a lasting agreement persisted. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US payrolls data and last week's inflation reading reduced expctations of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, weighing on the dollar and boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated metals. On the supply side, South Africa's platinum output remained constrained after criminal activity disrupted power supplies to major mining operations. In contrast, Russia's Nornickel has begun expanding its mines, aiming to extend production through at least 2048.

Platinum futures traded around $1,600 an ounce, hovering near their lowest level since November 2025, as a stronger US dollar outweighed easing inflation concerns amid improving global energy supply. Oil prices returned near pre-war levels as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, while signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks further eased concerns over potential supply disruptions. However, the US dollar remained broadly firm, making dollar-denominated commodities such as platinum more expensive for buyers of other currencies. Despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation expectations had eased over the past month, markets continued to price in more than a 60% chance of a September rate hike as he reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, while strong US data underscored the economy’s resilience. Meanwhile, the platinum market remains structurally tight, as output from major producers South Africa and Russia remains constrained.

Platinum futures fell to near $1,550 an ounce, hitting a fresh seven-month low and posting steep second straight monthly and quarterly losses as Middle East uncertainties and wagers of US interest rate hikes dampened demand. The Federal Reserve have adopted a more hawkish stance this month, while strong US economic data underscored the economy’s resilience, prompting markets to price in at least one hike this year, coming as early as September. This makes the dollar stronger, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers of other currencies. Meanwhile, persistent concerns that disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could fuel global inflation have also reinforced expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, weighing on non-yielding metals. While US and Iran resumed their peace negotiations, a major sticking point remains after Tehran reiterated its plan to oversee traffic through the Gulf even if Oman decides not to take part.