Palladium Holds Near 2-Month High

Palladium futures climbed toward $1,370 per ounce, remaining near more than two-month highs as reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and broader strength across precious metals supported demand. Markets price in about a 50% chance of a September Fed hike, down from 60% before last week’s weaker-than-expected US jobs report, with lower rates generally supporting non-yielding precious metals. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions supported precious metals, as attacks on shipping by the US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis and uncertainty over the Iran conflict kept safe-haven demand elevated. On the supply front, concerns over disruptions in South Africa and uncertainty over Russian exports continue to support prices, with extended maintenance at South African processing facilities reducing refined PGM output amid tight inventories. Over the past month, palladium has risen 9.58% and is up 21.67% year-on-year.

Palladium futures held near $1,370 per ounce, remaining near a seven-week high as weaker-than-expected US jobs data reduced expectations of further Fed tightening, while Middle East tensions capped gains. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, prompting markets to lower expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike to 43.9% from 57% before the report. However, President Donald Trump stated he believed the war would end soon, while attacks by Iran and Iran-backed Houthi militants continued to fuel concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflation. Meanwhile, US consumers continued to favor hybrid vehicles over battery-electric models in the first half of 2026, supporting demand for palladium used in catalytic converters. However, broader demand remained under pressure as Chinese EV sales rose for a third straight month in July. Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer, expects a global palladium market surplus in 2026 as rising EV adoption weakens long-term demand.

Palladium futures climbed above $1,360 per ounce, heading toward a two-month high as broad gains across the precious metals complex supported prices. Progress in US-Iran negotiations led markets to scale back expectations for a September Fed rate hike, while a weaker dollar made dollar-denominated metals more affordable for foreign buyers. Investors now await upcoming US labor market data for further clues on the Fed's policy outlook. US consumers continued to favor hybrid vehicles over battery-electric models in the first half of 2026, supporting demand for palladium used in catalytic converters. However, broader demand remained under pressure as Chinese EV sales rose for a third straight month in July. Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer, also expects a global palladium market surplus in 2026 as rising EV adoption weakens long-term demand.