US Natgas Prices Rise as Record Heat Boosts Demand

US natural gas prices rose over 3% to nearly $3.30 per MMBtu, driven by increased flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and projections for record-breaking power demand. A severe heat wave is sweeping across the country, forcing residents to heavily rely on air conditioning. Temperatures in New York City are forecast to hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit, threatening to tie a 1966 record. With meteorologists predicting above-normal heat through mid-July, gas-fired plants, which provide roughly 40% of US electricity, are expected to burn significantly more fuel. Also, average gas flows to major export facilities increased to 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in June. Meanwhile, production in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 110.0 billion cubic feet per day, up from 109.7 in May, and national inventories are anticipated to rise to 5.9% above normal levels.

US natural gas prices fell to $3.17 per MMBtu, retreating from a three-week high of $3.3 hit on June 25, as cooling weather forecasts signaled a drop in air-conditioning demand and gas-fired electricity consumption. Despite this near-term price drop, raw data shows that export fundamentals remain robust. Average daily flows to major liquefied natural gas export terminals on the US Gulf Coast rose to 17.3 billion cubic feet so far in June, up from 17.1 billion cubic feet in May. This export growth was heavily supported by record feedgas activity at the Golden Pass facility in Texas. Meanwhile, domestic production across the Lower 48 states has been steady, averaging 109.7 billion cubic feet per day throughout June. US gas prices have fallen more than 3% so far this month but are up 10% for the second quarter.

US natural gas prices climbed toward $3.35 per MMBtu, the highest since early February, propelled by increased flows to liquefied natural gas export facilities and forecasts for warmer weather through July 10. This hotter weather is expected to drive up electricity demand for air conditioning in a country where gas-fired plants generate roughly 40% of the power supply. Average daily flows to major export plants rose to 17.3 billion cubic feet so far in June, up from 17.1 billion cubic feet in May, boosted by record feedgas activity at the Golden Pass facility in Texas. Simultaneously, the Energy Information Administration reported a near-normal storage injection of 76 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 19. This addition keeps domestic stockpiles about 5.7% above seasonal norms. At the same time, production in the Lower 48 states has been steady at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, unchanged from the previous month.