Lumber Near September-2024 Lows

Lumber futures fell toward $550 per thousand board feet, marking a six-week low, as a stagnant North American housing sector failed to absorb heavy seasonal inventories. Demand weakened as January data showed a 7% year over year drop in single family starts and an 8.4% decline in units under construction. High 6.25% mortgage rates and a 5.8% slump in Canadian home sales during January 2026 further stalled new project starts. On the supply side, regional inventory remained bloated. While British Columbia curtailments continued harsh winter storms in the US South halted jobsite activity more than mill output, creating a distributor logjam and forcing aggressive dealer discounting to clear yard space. Additionally, while Trump's administration 45% softwood duties were meant to buoy prices they instead stifled demand by adding nearly $17,500 to average home costs. This eroded the builder confidence needed to clear current supply.

Lumber decreased to 578.50 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 5.78%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.48%.

Lumber futures fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, their lowest level in five weeks, as weakening residential construction demand met heavy seasonal inventories and aggressive dealer discounting. US housing starts for December printed at a 1.404 million SAAR, while full-year 2025 activity was essentially flat versus 2024. At the same time, single-family starts are down roughly 7% year on year and single-family units under construction have dropped 8.4%, reducing near-term framing lumber consumption. In Canada, January home sales declined 5.8%, reinforcing softer North American demand conditions. On the supply side, winter storms slowed jobsite activity more than mill production, leaving distributors and secondary sellers with elevated yard inventories that have been cleared at discounted prices, in some cases below replacement cost. The combination of slower construction drawdowns and persistent supply has widened basis levels, accelerated destocking across key hubs.