Lumber Rangebound as Tariffs Weigh

2026-04-28 11:05 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Lumber futures have been moving in a tight range between $575 and $585 per thousand board feet as broader uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions weigh on sentiment.

The US has recently outlined preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber, with the antidumping rate reduced from 20.6% to 10.7% and the countervailing duty trimmed from 14.6% to 14.2%, lowering the combined rate to about 25.9%.

Including an existing 10% Section 232 tariff, total effective duties on Canadian imports are expected to remain near 35.9% once they take effect in August.

Despite these measures aimed at supporting domestic producers, US sawmill utilization remains relatively weak at around 64%, with capacity use trending lower since 2017, pointing to limited supply response.

At the same time, elevated construction costs and high interest rates are continuing to pressure housing activity, with US builder confidence slipping to its lowest level since September 2025.



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Lumber Rangebound as Tariffs Weigh
Lumber futures have been moving in a tight range between $575 and $585 per thousand board feet as broader uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions weigh on sentiment. The US has recently outlined preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber, with the antidumping rate reduced from 20.6% to 10.7% and the countervailing duty trimmed from 14.6% to 14.2%, lowering the combined rate to about 25.9%. Including an existing 10% Section 232 tariff, total effective duties on Canadian imports are expected to remain near 35.9% once they take effect in August. Despite these measures aimed at supporting domestic producers, US sawmill utilization remains relatively weak at around 64%, with capacity use trending lower since 2017, pointing to limited supply response. At the same time, elevated construction costs and high interest rates are continuing to pressure housing activity, with US builder confidence slipping to its lowest level since September 2025.
2026-04-28
Lumber Hits 4-week Low
Lumber decreased to 575.00 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 2.69%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.69%.
2026-04-10
Lumber Falls to 1-Month Low
Lumber futures traded around $570 per thousand board feet, near a one-month low as the combination of high interest rates and falling home construction has crushed demand faster than sawmills can reduce supply. This downward pressure is driven by a 14.2% collapse in single-family housing starts and a 5.4% decline in building permits that signaled an abrupt cooling of spring activity. While ongoing sawmill closures have removed 1.3 billion board feet of capacity and US duties on Canadian imports remain at 45% these supply factors are failing to support prices against a sharp loss of buyers. The recent surge in mortgage rates to 6.46% has stifled traffic and left builders managing a 2.4% increase in unsold inventory that necessitates immediate price cuts. Furthermore the April 2nd announcement of C$2.1 billion in Canadian forestry subsidies has introduced expectations of more wood availability that offsets the risks of shipping delays through the Strait of Hormuz.
2026-04-07