Iron Ore Slides on Expected Steel Production Cuts

Iron ore futures slipped toward CNY 680 per ton on Wednesday, reaching a one-week low as expectations of production restrictions across major steelmaking hubs in China’s Hebei province weighed on demand prospects. Key steel-producing cities, including Tangshan and Handan, have entered the autumn-winter air pollution control period, during which unfavorable weather conditions have periodically disrupted sintering operations and blast furnace utilization. Expectations are growing that broader production restrictions could be introduced across Hebei, potentially placing further pressure on steel output. Industry data also showed that average hot metal production among Chinese steelmakers, a key indicator of iron ore demand, continued to decline. Meanwhile, global iron ore shipments decreased by 5.57 million tons to 29.91 million tons in the week ending November 8. Shipments from Australia and Brazil also fell by 3.84 million tons to 24.06 million tons.

Iron ore futures steadied above CNY 680 per ton on Tuesday, remaining near four-week highs as global shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports recorded significant declines. Industry data showed that global iron ore shipments dropped by 5.57 million tons to 29.91 million tons in the week ending November 8. Shipments from Australia and Brazil also fell by 3.84 million tons to 24.06 million tons. Meanwhile, arrivals at major Chinese ports declined by 2.5 million tons over the same period to 27.64 million tons. Official figures also revealed that China’s iron ore imports fell 3.8% month-on-month in October, reaching their lowest level in five months. Additionally, demand expectations for the key steelmaking raw material remained subdued due to production curbs in northern China driven by environmental concerns. Industry data further indicated that average hot metal output among Chinese steelmakers, a key gauge of iron ore demand, continued to trend lower.

Iron ore futures declined to around CNY 685 per ton on Monday, pulling back from four-week highs as production restrictions in China, driven by environmental concerns, dampened demand prospects for the key steelmaking ingredient. Authorities in northern China, including major steelmaking centers Tangshan and Handan in Hebei province, introduced emergency measures effective Monday in response to forecasts of severe air pollution. Industry data also showed that average hot metal production among Chinese steelmakers, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, fell for a fourth consecutive week, declining 0.5% from the previous week to 2.31 million tons as of November 5. Meanwhile, expectations of ample global supply of the metal continued to weigh on the market, with combined production from 16 major mining companies increasing by approximately 22.98 million tons year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2026.