Iron Ore Rises as Chinese Trading Resumes

Iron ore futures climbed back above CNY 800 per ton, halting a recent decline as trading resumed in China following a holiday-extended weekend, while investors continued to assess uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict. Markets are focused on President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal or face attacks on civilian infrastructure, with the risk of a prolonged conflict fueling concerns over supply disruptions and a global economic slowdown. Iron ore also drew support from demand optimism after calls from Beijing to accelerate energy-related construction projects. President Xi Jinping highlighted plans to develop a new energy system to strengthen national energy security, including the construction of a major hydropower dam on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 800 per ton, retreating after a brief rebound as renewed geopolitical uncertainty rattled markets. Prices came under pressure following Donald Trump’s rare prime-time address on the Middle East conflict, in which he said the US is “very close” to completing its military objectives in Iran while warning that strikes could escalate. Volatility in oil markets added further strain, with Brent crude up roughly 60% since the conflict began, and gasoline prices also climbing. Losses were partly cushioned by tightening supply and other external factors. Iron ore had previously posted its strongest monthly gain since September 2024, supported by weather-related disruptions in Australia and a pricing dispute involving BHP Group. Market attention is also turning to potential fuel shortages and the ongoing cyclone season in the key exporting region, which continue to provide underlying support for prices.

Iron ore futures stabilized above CNY 810 per ton, moving sideways over the past two weeks as investors assessed disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the impact of the cyclone season in Australia. Supply risks linked to the Iran war have lifted fuel and shipping costs, maintaining a risk premium on prices. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased after Tropical Cyclone Narelle caused only limited port disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region. In China, production curbs in the steel sector weighed on iron ore demand, with authorities reaffirming efforts to reduce overcapacity amid slowing economic activity. Elsewhere, Australia’s BHP Group and state-backed China Mineral Resources Group remain at a standoff over their 2026 supply contract, although Beijing has temporarily eased the import ban on BHP’s Jimblebar fines.