Iron Ore Stabilizes

Iron ore futures stabilized above CNY 810 per ton, moving sideways over the past two weeks as investors assessed disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the impact of the cyclone season in Australia. Supply risks linked to the Iran war have lifted fuel and shipping costs, maintaining a risk premium on prices. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased after Tropical Cyclone Narelle caused only limited port disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region. In China, production curbs in the steel sector weighed on iron ore demand, with authorities reaffirming efforts to reduce overcapacity amid slowing economic activity. Elsewhere, Australia’s BHP Group and state-backed China Mineral Resources Group remain at a standoff over their 2026 supply contract, although Beijing has temporarily eased the import ban on BHP’s Jimblebar fines.

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 810 per ton and were set to end the week little changed, as Tropical Cyclone Narelle caused minimal port disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region. China’s key steelmaking hub of Tangshan also activated a level-two emergency response to heavy air pollution this week, raising concerns about potential output curbs and tighter environmental inspections. During the annual parliamentary sessions in Beijing earlier this month, authorities reaffirmed their commitment to reducing overcapacity in the steel sector amid weakening demand. Meanwhile, supply disruptions and higher shipping costs tied to the Middle East conflict continued to keep a risk premium on prices. Separately, stockpiles of BHP’s Jimblebar fines at several Chinese ports declined to nearly a two-month low as steelmakers accelerated shipments during a short-lived one-week easing of the import ban.

Iron ore futures climbed toward CNY 820 per ton, hovering near one-year highs as weather-related disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region forced the closure of several ports, heightening supply concerns from the top exporter. Australian miner Fenix Resources also warned that diesel supply constraints linked to the Iran war are beginning to affect operations across the country’s mining sector, prompting the company to scale back some activities. However, gains were capped as China’s key steelmaking hub of Tangshan activated a level-two emergency response to heavy air pollution, raising concerns about potential output curbs and tighter environmental inspections. During the annual parliamentary sessions in Beijing earlier this month, authorities reaffirmed their commitment to reducing overcapacity in the steel sector amid weakening demand.