Gold Crosses $5,000

Gold rose above $4,500 per ounce on Friday after a sharp decline in the previous session, as President Donald Trump pushed back his deadline for Iran to secure a deal to end the war. Trump pledged to refrain from targeting Iranian energy facilities until April 6, providing some relief to markets unsettled by nearly a month of hostilities. He also said Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a “present” to the US. Meanwhile, Iran confirmed it had rejected the US’ 15-point plan to end the war and submitted its own conditions, including recognition of Tehran’s authority over Hormuz. On Thursday, gold dropped nearly 3% amid persistent doubts that the US and Iran can reach a ceasefire agreement any time soon. Gold and other metals came under heavy selling pressure as the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices fueled inflation concerns and raised expectations that major central banks could hike interest rates this year.

Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, trading around $4,460 per ounce and nearing their lowest level since early January, as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed crude prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting investors to abandon hopes for US interest rate cuts this year. Iran reiterated its denial of ongoing negotiations with Washington, while President Donald Trump stated that Iran is "begging" to make a deal, though he questioned whether the US is "willing" to strike one now. The uncertainty drove the US dollar and Treasury yields higher, with markets now assigning a 38% probability of a rate hike by December and a 93% chance of unchanged rates at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting. Just 3% of traders expect a rate cut in December, a sharp reversal from pre-conflict expectations of at least two cuts in 2026.

Gold fell below $4,500 per ounce on Thursday, giving back gains from the past two sessions as conflicting statements from the US and Iran over potential peace talks continued to unsettle financial markets. Washington has maintained that negotiations are underway, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran said it has no intention of holding talks with the US and would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead setting its own conditions including sovereign control over the strategic waterway. The US has also ordered the deployment of thousands of troops to the Middle East, heightening concerns about a possible ground invasion. Gold has faced intense selling pressure this month as surging energy prices linked to disruptions from the Iran war fueled inflation fears and prompted a hawkish shift among major central banks.