Gold Set for Monthly Gain on US Rate-Cut Bets

Gold prices edged above $4,790 per ounce on Thursday, holding onto a four-day gain near a two-week high, supported by a retreat in the US dollar amid hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict. President Donald Trump appeared to signal a possible end to the US military operation in Iran, with attention now turning to his rare prime-time address later today, after more than a month of conflict. A White House official said he is expected to outline a two- to three-week timeline for concluding the operation. These developments helped oil prices pull back from recent highs and the dollar index retreat from a ten-month peak reached earlier this week. Gold has risen more than 6% so far this week, its largest gain in 10 weeks, as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary path, weighing the potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions against renewed growth concerns and inflation worries.

Gold prices rose above $4,730 per ounce on Wednesday as bullion drew support from a retreating US dollar on signs of potential de-escalation in the Middle East. President Donald Trump stated that Iran requested a ceasefire, though he noted the US will only consider the deal once the Strait of Hormuz is fully operational and threatened further escalation if vessel attacks continue. These developments tempered the urgency for safe haven assets and helped pull oil prices back from recent highs while the dollar index retreated from a ten-month peak reached on Monday. Still gains were capped as the 10-year Treasury yield halted its decline following a 37bps rise in March amid fresh data showing the private sector added 62K jobs and retail sales grew by 0.6%. Despite the plunge of more than 13% in March gold remains sensitive to the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged this year as traders weigh a resilient US economy against shifting geopolitical volatility.

Gold prices rose to around $4,700 per ounce on Wednesday amid signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions, which could lead to lower oil prices and ease concerns over further central bank rate hikes. President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the war against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, while regional reports suggested Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian may consider ending the conflict under certain conditions. Still, gains in bullion remained limited as easing geopolitical risks reduced safe-haven demand, while a firm US dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on non-yielding assets. In March, gold plunged more than 13%, marking its steepest monthly drop since October 2008, and remains nearly 19% below its record highs set in late January. Traders are now closely watching upcoming US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve for further direction on interest rate expectations.