Gasoline Futures Remain at March Lows

2026-11-11 13:06 By Larissa Caser 1 min. read

US gasoline futures traded around $2.60 per gallon, remaining near their lowest level since early March, as investors assess the outlook for the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.

Persistent attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz dampened hopes of de-escalation, although crude oil continues to flow through the waterway.

Domestic gasoline supplies, however, remain tight and below seasonal norms since late April.

As a result, the EIA raised its 2027 forecast for average US retail gasoline prices to $3.73 per gallon.

Reduced driving demand heading into winter has supported a partial recovery to inventories, while pump prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since July.

However, a shift from US refiners away from gasoline towards higher-margin middle distillates and seasonal refinery maintenance could further contrain supply.

Escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and lower Chinese exports are also contributing to tighter global fuel markets.



News Stream
Gasoline Futures Remain at March Lows
US gasoline futures traded around $2.60 per gallon, remaining near their lowest level since early March, as investors assess the outlook for the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. Persistent attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz dampened hopes of de-escalation, although crude oil continues to flow through the waterway. Domestic gasoline supplies, however, remain tight and below seasonal norms since late April. As a result, the EIA raised its 2027 forecast for average US retail gasoline prices to $3.73 per gallon. Reduced driving demand heading into winter has supported a partial recovery to inventories, while pump prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since July. However, a shift from US refiners away from gasoline towards higher-margin middle distillates and seasonal refinery maintenance could further contrain supply. Escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and lower Chinese exports are also contributing to tighter global fuel markets.
2026-11-11
Gasoline Futures Retreat
US gasoline futures traded around $2.60 per gallon, near their lowest level since early March, amid expectations of further diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. US President Trump’s remarks that extensive strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” reduced expectations for renewed attacks on Tehran. However, supply concerns persist while attacks in the region continue. Additionally, Ukraine struck Russia’s second-largest refinery, disrupting its gasoline and diesel production and raising questions over the agreement between Presidents Putin and Trump on supplying Russian diesel to global markets. In the US, inventories remain below seasonal norms, with EIA data showing a further decline of 222,000 barrels in the week ended October 30. The agency also expects US refiners to shift production away from gasoline towards higher-margin middle distillates, including diesel and jet fuel. Seasonal refinery maintenance could further tighten gasoline supplies.
2026-11-09
Gasoline Holds Near March Lows
US gasoline futures hovered around $2.75 a gallon, near their lowest level since early March, as traders weighed tight fuel supplies against expectations of faster progress towards ending the US-Iran war. Iran reported that three tankers had been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the risks to shipping through the vital waterway. Supply concerns were reinforced by EIA data showing US gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels in the week ending October 30th, leaving stocks persistently below their five-year average. An EIA report also pointed to an expected shift among US refiners away from gasoline towards middle distillates, including distillate fuel oil and jet fuel, as those carry more attractive prices. Seasonal refinery maintenance could further constrain gasoline supplies. However, a Democratic takeover of the US Congress raised the prospect of greater constraints on military escalation while de-escalation efforts by Qatar continue in the Middle East.
2026-11-05