Gasoline Futures Decline

Gasoline futures fell to around $3.00 per gallon, giving back gains from the previous session, as prospects of further US–Iran peace negotiations outweighed a larger-than-expected draw in inventories. EIA data showed gasoline stocks declined by 6.3 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. Weekly gasoline demand also rose by 0.5 million bpd, while the four-week average increased by 0.1 million bpd. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports continuing to fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions. Iran has also warned it may retaliate against any extension of the blockade by halting shipments through other key waterways.

Gasoline futures traded around $3.00 per gallon, as rising expectations of peace negotiations between the US and Iran weighed on prices. A White House official said a second round of talks between Washington and Tehran is being discussed, although no formal timeline has been set. Reports also indicated that President Trump expects negotiations could resume “within the next two days,” while noting that progress has been slow. Despite this, uncertainty remains elevated, as the US Central Command said its blockade of Iranian ports is fully in force, effectively cutting off Iran’s maritime trade, which accounts for around 90% of its economy. Highlighting the impact of ongoing disruptions, the IEA reported that no new energy cargoes have been loaded in April and warned that global oil demand could decline this year for the first time since the COVID pandemic.

Gasoline futures fell over 2% to below $3.10 per gallon on Tuesday, trimming gains in the previous session, as hopes of renewed US–Iran talks resurfaced. US Vice President JD Vance said progress now depends on Tehran after weekend talks failed, saying the “ball is in the Iranian court” after Washington set out its terms, and a deal could benefit both sides if US nuclear conditions are met. President Donald Trump also said Iran had reached out through channels, while President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is open to talks provided they remain within international law. The shift followed the US move to begin a blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf on Monday, threatening oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, which averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day last month, tightening physical oil and refined product markets further. Meanwhile, an OPEC report showed Gulf Arab output fell sharply in March amid disruptions, raising concerns that recovery could take longer than expected.