European Natural Gas Prices Rise from 1-Month Low

European natural gas prices rose above €85/MWh, up from a one-month low of €82.5 hit on November 9, as concerns over tight winter supplies outweighed optimism about a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Europe’s already low storage levels are declining rapidly amid colder weather, lower wind generation and increased heating demand. Net withdrawals last week rose nearly sixfold from the previous week, while EU storage stood below 73%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 89%; Germany’s reserves were below 60%. Supply pressures have been compounded by disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG exports, constrained Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages and intensifying competition from Asian buyers. However, hopes for de-escalation have improved after US President Donald Trump signaled that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Qatar’s LNG loadings picked up in recent weeks, suggesting efforts to restore exports despite disruption around the Strait.

European natural gas prices extended their decline, falling to around €80/MWh, their lowest level in a month, amid growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump said on Monday that there was “positive momentum” toward ending the war, adding that new strikes are quite unlikely. Still, European gas prices remain more than double their pre-conflict levels, as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have stranded nearly 20% of global LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, keeping the gas market tight ahead of winter. EU gas storage levels are below 73%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany's inventories are less than 60% full. Colder weather, along with low wind and solar generation, has accelerated storage withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline flows have remained below capacity due to unplanned outages. The tight supply situation has raised the prospect of intense competition with Asia for cargoes.

European natural gas prices fell to around €82/MWh, their lowest level since October 9, extending a 17.7% loss in the previous week, as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict grew. President Donald Trump said it’s highly unlikely he will order extensive strikes on the Islamic Republic, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that negotiations may not deliver rapid progress. However, prices remain well above their pre-war levels, as the disruption of Middle Eastern LNG exports, which previously accounted for around a fifth of global supply, leaves Europe facing a tight market ahead of winter. EU gas storage is below 73%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s inventories are below 60%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline supplies remain constrained by outages. Competition for LNG is also expected to intensify as Asian buyers increase spot purchases.