European Gas Tumbles After Trump Cancels Attack on Iran

European natural gas prices declined more than 4% to around €56 per MWh on the first trading day of August after President Donald Trump called off a planned weekend attack on Iran, saying Tehran and other Middle Eastern nations had assured him they were working toward a deal. Trump said that negotiations between the parties are set to begin on Monday. The announcement provided some relief after days of escalating tensions that had driven energy prices sharply higher. European natural gas prices surged 36% in July as the conflict heightened concerns over LNG supplies from the Gulf and Europe's ability to replenish gas inventories ahead of winter. European gas facilities ended last month about 55% full, well below both the five-year average and the level recorded at the same time last year, leaving storage levels behind the pace needed to meet pre-winter inventory targets before the heating season begins in November 1.

European natural gas prices dropped to around €57 per MWh on Friday, extending losses from the previous session amid signs of improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz despite regional tensions and steady LNG arrivals in Europe. Qatar sent its first LNG tanker through the waterway in more than three weeks, raising hopes that exports from one of the world's largest LNG suppliers could gradually resume. Increased LNG arrivals into Northwest Europe and stable pipeline flows from Norway also helped ease supply concerns. Despite the recent pullback, European gas prices remain more than 33% higher in July, as renewed US-Iran hostilities disrupted Persian Gulf supplies while heatwaves boosted electricity demand, limiting Europe's ability to replenish inventories ahead of winter. Storage facilities are about 55% full, below the seasonal five-year average and behind the pace needed to comfortably meet pre-winter storage targets before the heating season begins in November.

European natural gas prices fell below €60 per MWh on Thursday, giving back part of the previous session’s gains after reports that a Qatari LNG tanker had successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that exports from one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers could gradually resume. It was the first such vessel reported to have left the waterway since one of Qatar’s tankers was attacked more than three weeks ago. However, concerns over the security of shipping through the strait persist amid renewed fighting in the region. President Donald Trump pledged a strong response after Iran attacked US bases in Jordan, following joint strikes by Saudi Arabia and Washington against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Earlier this week, QatarEnergy extended its force majeure for European and Asian customers, intensifying competition between the two regions for available LNG cargoes. Heatwaves across Europe also boosted electricity demand, slowing the pace of gas storage replenishment.