EU Gas Holds Gain Amid Supply Risks

European natural gas prices hovered around €60.5 per MWh on Thursday after surging in the previous session, as risks to Europe’s winter supply increased amid renewed fighting in the Middle East. This comes after Saudi Arabia and the United States carried out joint strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq. President Donald Trump pledged a forceful response after Iran attacked US bases in Jordan. This comes after Saudi Arabia and Washington carried out joint strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq. The renewed conflict has disrupted Qatari LNG exports, with QatarEnergy extending its force majeure for European buyers through the end of September, further tightening global gas supplies and intensifying competition with Asia for available cargoes. At the same time, heatwaves across Europe are boosting cooling demand, slowing the pace of gas storage replenishment.

European natural gas prices surged more than 4% to above €60 per MWh on Wednesday, rebounding after two consecutive sessions of losses, as fresh hostilities in the Middle East deepened concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. The US and Saudi Arabia conducted joint military strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, accusing them of being behind drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, prompting Iran to warn that holding it responsible for the attacks would be a "major miscalculation." The strikes came just hours after Washington said it had intercepted multiple missiles launched by Tehran targeting US troops in the region, ending a days-long lull in fighting. The latest escalation worsens Europe’s gas supply outlook as the region races to replenish storage ahead of the winter. Supply worries were compounded by reports that QatarEnergy, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, has extended its force majeure for European buyers until at least the end of September.

European natural gas prices fell to around €57 per MWh on Tuesday after plunging more than 8% in the previous session, as President Donald Trump expressed optimism about diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with Iran. Trump said on Monday that the US and Tehran were having "good talks" and that there was a chance of reaching a deal, but he warned that US strikes would resume if negotiations failed. His comments followed a pause in hostilities between the two sides to allow room for diplomacy. Despite this, concerns over Europe’s gas supply persist, with the bloc's storage levels at risk of falling short of its winter refill targets. The renewed escalation of the conflict in early July disrupted the recovery of LNG exports from Qatar, the Middle East’s largest LNG supplier, and with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still largely blocked, it remains uncertain when additional supplies from the region could reach global markets.