TTF Prices Surge as Hormuz Closes Again

European natural gas futures jumped more than 7% toward €41.7 per MWh in early Asian trading on Monday, almost erasing Friday’s losses, after Iran once again shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to the ongoing US blockade of its ports. President Donald Trump said the US Navy fired on and disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo ship over the weekend, while Tehran cautioned that any vessels nearing the strait would be considered in violation of the ceasefire. Reports also suggested that Iran would not participate in a second round of peace talks, despite Trump’s threat of renewed airstrikes. The latest escalation came after Iran stated on Friday that the vital waterway had reopened. Several LNG tankers carrying Qatari fuel reportedly approached the strait in recent days but were forced to turn back or remain idle. Since the conflict began in late February, no LNG exports have left the region, disrupting roughly 20% of global LNG supply.

European natural gas futures plunged more than 8% to below €39 per megawatt hour, the lowest since February 27, after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels during the ceasefire. The announcement boosted hopes that one of the worst energy supply disruptions in recent history may be easing, supporting expectations of de-escalation. The comments followed earlier remarks from President Donald Trump, who said Iranian concessions could help secure a broader peace deal, while adding that a US naval blockade targeting Iran would remain in place until negotiations are fully concluded. The conflict had severely disrupted global LNG flows, with the near closure of Hormuz cutting around a fifth of supply and pushing Asian imports to multi-year lows, potentially easing competition for Europe. Prices were also pressured by warmer weather and stronger wind generation across parts of the region, reducing demand.

European natural gas futures dropped to below €42 per MMBtu on Friday, giving up part of the previous session’s gains on expectations for a Middle East peace deal that could ease supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran could take place over the weekend, expressing confidence that the conflict may be nearing an end. Adding to this, a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday. However, control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows, remains contentious, with a US blockade of Iranian ports still in place. Traders also said the decline in prices was triggered by Asian countries cutting demand, including China, which has reduced competition for LNG cargoes. In addition, analysts noted the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar is unlikely to return to full operations until August, even if restart efforts begin in May.