TTF Prices Fall Again

European natural gas futures dropped to below €42 per MMBtu on Friday, giving up part of the previous session’s gains on expectations for a Middle East peace deal that could ease supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran could take place over the weekend, expressing confidence that the conflict may be nearing an end. Adding to this, a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday. However, control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows, remains contentious, with a US blockade of Iranian ports still in place. Traders also said the decline in prices was triggered by Asian countries cutting demand, including China, which has reduced competition for LNG cargoes. In addition, analysts noted the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar is unlikely to return to full operations until August, even if restart efforts begin in May.

European natural gas futures rose to €42 per MMBtu on Thursday but remained close to their lowest level in over six weeks as markets weighed prospects for an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. Reports suggest both countries have been in indirect talks aimed at extending the two-week ceasefire beyond its expiry on April 22 to allow more time for negotiations. The White House also said discussions on a potential second round of talks are “ongoing” and “productive.” However, uncertainty remains as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows, remains choked, with the US blockading Iranian ships and Tehran restricting passage for most other traffic through the waterway. Analysts also noted that Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG facility, will not be fully back online until August even if restart efforts begin in May. Further weighing on prices were warmer weather and stronger renewable output, which are dampening demand.

European natural gas futures fell to below €42 per MMBtu on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses to hit an over six-week low as optimism grew that the US and Iran may resume discussions aimed at ending the conflict. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks with Iran could restart within the next two days, following the breakdown of weekend negotiations that had led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran is also reportedly weighing a temporary halt to shipments through the strait to avoid provoking the current blockade and undermine peace talks. Meanwhile, Asian LNG imports have declined to their lowest level in nearly six years, which may offer temporary relief to European buyers competing for cargoes at a time when Europe needs to refill its tanks before next winter. Warmer weather across the region is also expected to curb heating demand in the coming weeks.