TTF Prices Extend Decline

European natural gas futures fell to below €42 per MMBtu on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses to hit an over six-week low as optimism grew that the US and Iran may resume discussions aimed at ending the conflict. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks with Iran could restart within the next two days, following the breakdown of weekend negotiations that had led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran is also reportedly weighing a temporary halt to shipments through the strait to avoid provoking the current blockade and undermine peace talks. Meanwhile, Asian LNG imports have declined to their lowest level in nearly six years, which may offer temporary relief to European buyers competing for cargoes at a time when Europe needs to refill its tanks before next winter. Warmer weather across the region is also expected to curb heating demand in the coming weeks.

European natural gas futures dropped to below €44 per MMBtu on Tuesday, erasing some of the previous session’s gains as hopes for continued peace talks between the US and Iran allayed fears of further supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said Iran had reached out to Washington regarding a possible agreement, while Iranian president stated that Tehran remains ready to continue dialogue within the framework of international law. These signals came as the US military began a blockade of vessels heading for or leaving Iran’s ports on Monday, following failed talks over the weekend in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Asian LNG imports have declined to their lowest level in nearly six years, which may offer temporary relief to European buyers competing for cargoes. In addition, milder weather conditions across Europe are expected to suppress heating demand in the coming weeks, further weighing on prices.

European natural gas futures surged 6% to €46.2 per MMBtu on Monday, rebounding from an over five-week low as President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed talks with Iran, deepening a global energy supply shock. US forces are set to begin enforcing restrictions on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on Monday at 1400 GMT but will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports. Trump also said the US will interdict any ship that has paid a toll to Iran for safe passage through the waterway. While most Middle Eastern gas exports typically head to Asia, prolonged disruption in the strait would heighten competition among importing regions, especially as Europe needs to refill storage before next winter. LNG shipments from the Gulf have been halted in over a month, with the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar remaining offline since early March after being hit by Iranian strikes.