TTF Prices Rise

European natural gas prices rose above €59 per MWh on Tuesday, rebounding after Monday's selloff amid uncertainty over renewed US-Iran diplomacy following mixed signals from both sides. President Trump said on Monday that talks were underway, warning that Iran had a last chance to reach a deal and avoid large-scale air strikes. Tehran, however, denied holding talks with Washington, although it said discussions with Oman to ensure safe passage through Hormuz were progressing. Another reported attack on a commercial vessel in the waterway further highlighted ongoing security risks. The conflict has disrupted roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, intensifying competition between European and Asian buyers for cargoes and slowing the pace of Europe's gas storage replenishment. European storage levels have fallen to their lowest for this time of year in nearly two decades, heightening concerns over the region's gas supply security as the heating season draws closer.

European natural gas prices fell to around €57.5 per MWh on Monday, after President Donald Trump called off a planned weekend attack on Iran, saying Tehran and other Middle Eastern nations had assured him they were working toward a deal. Trump added that negotiations between the parties are set to begin later today, providing some relief after days of escalating tensions that had driven energy prices sharply higher. However, traders remain on edge after an explosion was reported near a tanker off the coast of Oman. European natural gas prices surged 36% in July as renewed fighting heightened concerns over LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf and Europe’s ability to replenish gas inventories ahead of winter. European gas facilities ended last month about 55% full, lagging behind the pace needed to meet pre-winter targets before the heating season begins in November.

European natural gas prices dropped to around €57 per MWh on Friday, extending losses from the previous session amid signs of improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz despite regional tensions and steady LNG arrivals in Europe. Qatar sent its first LNG tanker through the waterway in more than three weeks, raising hopes that exports from one of the world's largest LNG suppliers could gradually resume. Increased LNG arrivals into Northwest Europe and stable pipeline flows from Norway also helped ease supply concerns. Despite the recent pullback, European gas prices remain more than 33% higher in July, as renewed US-Iran hostilities disrupted Persian Gulf supplies while heatwaves boosted electricity demand, limiting Europe's ability to replenish inventories ahead of winter. Storage facilities are about 55% full, below the seasonal five-year average and behind the pace needed to comfortably meet pre-winter storage targets before the heating season begins in November.