TTF Prices Rise

European natural gas futures fell toward €44 per MWh on Friday, reversing earlier gains and ending a four-day winning streak after reports that a second round of US-Iran talks is expected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was said to be heading to Islamabad, raising hopes of progress in efforts to ease the conflict with the United States. According to reports citing sources familiar with the talks, there is a high likelihood of a breakthrough in negotiations involving the countries linked to the dispute. Since the conflict began in late February, LNG exports from the Persian Gulf have effectively come to a halt, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global supply. This has raised serious concerns for Europe, particularly as the region needs to rebuild gas stocks ahead of winter. For the week, European natural gas prices are still up more than 13%.

European natural gas futures extended their gains, rising above €45 per MWh amid fears of prolonged disruptions to LNG deliveries to Europe. Stalled peace negotiations and an open-ended ceasefire extension between the US and Iran have kept tensions elevated, leaving the Strait of Hormuz in gridlock. Iran has kept the Strait closed to most international shipping, with its forces firing on commercial vessels in the waterway on Wednesday. The US has also maintained a blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports. On Thursday, the US said it had intercepted another tanker carrying Iranian oil, while President Donald Trump ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boat laying mines in the waterway. Since the conflict began in late February, LNG exports from the Persian Gulf have effectively come to a halt, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global supply. This has raised serious concerns for Europe, particularly as the region needs to rebuild gas stocks ahead of winter.

European natural gas futures climbed above €43 per MWh on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as prospects for a second round of US-Iran peace talks appeared uncertain, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining choked. Reports indicated that Vice President JD Vance, who was expected to lead US negotiators if discussions proceed, canceled a planned trip to Pakistan after Iran said no final decision had been made on whether to attend. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, saying Washington would delay further strikes to give Tehran more time to present a proposal aimed at ending the conflict. Still, supply risks remain elevated as Hormuz stayed closed to shipping. Iran said it will not reopen the key waterway while the US maintains restrictions on vessels traveling to and from Tehran. The continued closure has severely disrupted LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, cutting roughly one-fifth of global supply.