TTF Prices Extend Gains

European natural gas futures rose above €44 per MWh on Thursday, extending gains for a fourth straight session amid fears of prolonged disruptions to LNG deliveries to Europe. Stalled peace negotiations and an open-ended ceasefire extension between the US and Iran have kept tensions elevated, leaving the Strait of Hormuz in gridlock. Iran has kept the Strait closed to most international shipping, with its forces reportedly firing on commercial vessels in the waterway on Wednesday. At the same time, the US has maintained a blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports. Since the conflict began in late February, LNG exports from the Persian Gulf have effectively come to a halt, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global supply. This has raised serious concerns for Europe, particularly as the region needs to rebuild gas stocks ahead of winter.

European natural gas futures climbed above €43 per MWh on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of gains as prospects for a second round of US-Iran peace talks appeared uncertain, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining choked. Reports indicated that Vice President JD Vance, who was expected to lead US negotiators if discussions proceed, canceled a planned trip to Pakistan after Iran said no final decision had been made on whether to attend. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, saying Washington would delay further strikes to give Tehran more time to present a proposal aimed at ending the conflict. Still, supply risks remain elevated as Hormuz stayed closed to shipping. Iran said it will not reopen the key waterway while the US maintains restrictions on vessels traveling to and from Tehran. The continued closure has severely disrupted LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, cutting roughly one-fifth of global supply.

European natural gas futures rose more than 5% to around €42.3 per MWh on Tuesday, extending a 3.9% gain in the previous session, as markets focused on potential US Iran talks ahead of a fragile ceasefire deadline. Iran has yet to confirm participation in negotiations in Pakistan, with key disagreements unresolved, including access to the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already triggered a global energy crisis that could worsen if fighting intensifies. President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance is ready to attend talks but warned the US will not rush a deal and could resume military action if needed. The near closure of Hormuz has severely disrupted LNG flows, cutting roughly a fifth of global supply. Shipping remains largely halted after renewed attacks, with several Qatari LNG tankers unable to pass, leaving exports from the region effectively stalled since late February.